Its a silly threat that no one with an understanding of business will sign.
The basic problem is that a 3rd party publisher can easily produce books for both Pathfinder and for
4e, and make money on both. Even if a 3rd party publisher was dumb enough to burn bridges that might lead to future employment or contract work and sign some sort of aggressive ultimatum, and even if as a result of that ultimatum they publish something under Pathfinder, once the
GSL is done they will be faced with a problem- do they maintain their refusal to publish
4e material even though, with the
GSL completed, that's essentially leaving money on the table?
Of course they won't. Not if they're business people. And if they're business people they'll know that's going to happen in advance, and won't sign. And if they're business people and they DO sign, if
WOTC knows they're business people,
WOTC will know that the threat is empty and that they'll go back on their word once there's money to be had.
The only way the threat could be even slightly credible is if there were something to bind the 3rd party publishers to their word. Maybe if their only product was a single Adventure Path or something. That's about all I can come up with.
And yet another word from our sponsors
