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[Sir Brennen]

Originally Posted by Jack7

I'm saying there is a fundamental difference between a Hero and a calculator. Because Fortune favors the Bold, but timidity, not chance, is the father of the impossible.

No man grows brave through practice of statistics, and comforting assurances of favorable odds. He grows brave through the exercise of danger, and risk. And no manipulations of probability, or improbability, can change that fact.

But in all seriousness, whereas I would always encourage in-game cleverness and shrewdness, as well as the rational analysis of risk, I would never encourage anything even remotely resembling the idea that you carefully balance your way into cautious heroism across the tightrope of mathematical certitude.

I didn't see anywhere that jasin was implying that such detailed, mathematical analysis is a desired approach to play.

I think it's more like this: a firefighter reasonably fits the image of a hero... going into dangerous situations to aid others. And, much like a D&D adventurer, he does it on a regular basis. However, do you think they do so without rigorous training, adequate preparation and taking every precaution they can to minimize the risk to themselves even as they enter a burning building? Will they normally do things where the odds don't favor them? Of course not. Does this make them less heroic? I think not.

So even in real life, heroes will do things to try and make sure the odds are in their favor as much as possible.

Similarly, as PCs face danger on a routine basis, they of course will do things which minimize risk and perform "manipulations of probability" by doing things which shift the dice roll in their favor. Just the basic knowledge each player has that each +1 gives you a 5% better chance to succeed and trying to get those bonuses doesn't mean they're "carefully balance your way into cautious heroism across the tightrope of mathematical certitude."

Just like the heroes of fiction will try to have better equipment, keep their skills honed and exercise beneficial tactical maneuvers in combat, so do D&D players. It's just that the fact that it's a game means there's math involved to reflect those things the heroes of fiction do.

However, with heroes of fiction, there is no real risk! They can succeed at amazing and impossible things because the author has already predetermined that they will do so. They cannot fail unless the author wants them to.

This is not true in a D&D game, which is co-authored by DM and players, because it is a game, which is dependent on the roll of a die to determine the outcome of actions, and through cumulative action results, an entire challenge. You can't expect PCs to "act like heroes" and continually take on situations where the odds are against them, because, unlike heroes of fiction, the statistical odds are actually against them. So they won't end up heroes, they'll just end up dead. No amount of florid prose regarding what heroism is "really" about will change that.

So, to create the experience of having your PC be more like heroes of fiction, they have to have a reasonable chance of success, to be able to continue the story. There's a certain amount of trust on the part of the players that the DM will make this the case. Not to make victory certain, or eliminate all risk, as it is in the fiction you seem to be basing your heroic ideal on, but at least challenging and entertaining.