I might not have any hard numbers, but let's compare them to yours.
You have a "vocal" outcry (on Enworld) where a whole 600 out of 70.000 were so displeased with
4e that they chose to vote (in a poll that could be could be cheated with) about the fact that they aren't playing no more.
A crappy
GSL? What on earth does that have to do with proving there is a splintering?
Paizo's increased sales? Last I checked, the only thing we know about that is a comment by Mona. Again, assuming you take what Mona says at face value (since no numbers have been released), I find it funny that you do not take Scott's or Mearls' or Slavicecks word at equal face value. But I guess this explains by the comments in my first post. Also, we have no idea about how much the increased sales are, it could be 1% or it could be 5000%.
Compared to that, we have
4e books selling more than the previous edition, according to places like US Today top 150, making it to the yearly amazon top 100 sales list. Every statement we have seen from
WotC indicates that
4e outsold 3.x by quite a bit.
Does that sound like a splintered marked?
Not to me. Then again, I guess it depends on the word splintered. If you mean that they lost the usual 5-15% in an edition change, then sure, the marked is splintered. But if you are talking about 50% or something equally silly, then no, I do not believe we have anything that even ressembles a splintered marked.
I will also note that neither you nor I have any solid proof. Mine is just better by miles.
Cheers
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