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[thecasualoblivion]

Originally Posted by Shroomy

Its a likely scenario, though I do think that Pathfinder will be more successful and widely played than M&M or True20 (by far).

Originally Posted by ShinHakkaider

I don't see Pathfinder trailing off. I think the Pazio / Pathfinder fans are just as fanatical and loyal as 4E fans. I know as long as I'm able to run games I'll keep supporting them.


The materials are still out there and available and can be cannibalized for Pathfinder.

The way I see Pathfinder is as a piece of the 3.5E puzzle, and that it is unlikely it will eclipse 3.5E itself in the RPG community. As I predict that the 3.5E community will dwindle to the levels we see AD&D played within 3-4 years, I would expect Pathfinder to follow suit.

Originally Posted by ggroy

If there are no major future market mistakes made by WotC, I can possibly see this scenario happening. Though this is assuming Hasbro has an interest in keeping the tabletop rpg WotC division around, and not selling it. No idea what the top executives at Hasbro think of WotC.

On the other hand, all bets are off if Hasbro/WotC royally messes up something which drastically affects D&D sales.

I think you vastly overestimate this. WotC is much more customer friendly than big names(in the gaming world) such as Games Workshop or TSR. Those companies weren't ruined by their marketing or customer relations(TSR was ruined by bad business decisions, not maketing or customer relations), and I see no reason to expect such from WotC's current or future practices. I also think people vastly overrate Hasbro as the big bad evil corporation.

Originally Posted by ggroy

This I wouldn't be too surprised to see this happening over a 10 to 20+ year period.

For example, these days I have a hard time finding anybody locally who is interested in playing a regular campaign using 1E AD&D or the red box basic set D&D. Usually what ends up happening is I find a group of old friends who I use to game with ages ago, where we have a marathon session of playing 1E AD&D or basic set D&D over a long weekend.

I think it will be quicker than that. More like 3 years.

Originally Posted by Dannyalcatraz

Overall, I think that 1) is highly probable, that 2) is highly likely, though I think W&W and a couple of others may also be in that category.

3) is somewhat less likely, IMHO. It really is a gorilla of a game.

4) is probable, but the OGL is big enough that a minimal number of quality products could keep it going strong for quite some time, even decades.

On 2) I just gave those as examples. Other games would fall into that category.

3) As I said, I think it will take time, as in 3-4 years. I don't see 3.5E recruiting enough new players to replace departing ones to maintain its current popularity.