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[Truename]

As Elric pointed out in his post above, my to-hit probability on the soldier was way too low. I've fixed the error (his to-hit is now 8, per DMG guidelines), and re-run the simulations. Here are the results for level + 0 to level + 5:

LEVEL 1 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER
Days simulated: 100000

Avg rounds: 3.0
  1  (8.1%): ================
  2 (40.9%): ===================================================================
  3 (67.5%): ======================================================
  4 (86.7%): =======================================
  5 (95.5%): ==================
  6 (99.0%): =======
  7 (99.8%): =

Avg fights survived: 3.3
  0 (11.2%): ===============================================
  1 (27.0%): ===================================================================
  2 (41.9%): ===============================================================
  3 (54.9%): =======================================================
  4 (68.6%): ==========================================================
  5 (81.9%): ========================================================
  6 (91.5%): ========================================
  7 (96.6%): =====================
  8 (98.8%): =========
  9 (99.6%): ===
 10 (99.9%): =

Daily used: 79.2%

LEVEL 2 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER
Days simulated: 100000

Avg rounds: 3.8
  1  (1.3%): ==
  2 (16.8%): ==================================
  3 (46.7%): ===================================================================
  4 (71.7%): ========================================================
  5 (89.1%): ======================================
  6 (96.6%): ================
  7 (99.0%): =====
  8 (99.8%): =

Avg fights survived: 1.7
  0 (25.2%): ===========================================================
  1 (53.8%): ===================================================================
  2 (73.1%): =============================================
  3 (85.6%): =============================
  4 (94.4%): ====================
  5 (98.5%): =========
  6 (99.7%): ==

Daily used: 73.9%

LEVEL 3 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER
Days simulated: 100000

Avg rounds: 4.4
  2  (2.9%): =====
  3 (26.5%): ===================================================
  4 (57.3%): ===================================================================
  5 (80.3%): =================================================
  6 (92.6%): ==========================
  7 (97.7%): ===========
  8 (99.4%): ===

Avg fights survived: 0.8
  0 (45.3%): ===================================================================
  1 (80.2%): ===================================================
  2 (93.4%): ===================
  3 (98.2%): =======
  4 (99.7%): ==

Daily used: 68.1%

LEVEL 4 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER
Days simulated: 100000

Avg rounds: 4.5
  2  (2.3%): ====
  3 (23.4%): ===========================================
  4 (55.9%): ===================================================================
  5 (80.4%): ==================================================
  6 (92.9%): =========================
  7 (97.8%): ==========
  8 (99.4%): ===

Avg fights survived: 0.3
  0 (72.8%): ===================================================================
  1 (96.7%): ======================
  2 (99.7%): ==

Daily used: 59.9%

LEVEL 5 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER
Days simulated: 100000

Avg rounds: 4.6
  2  (1.0%): =
  3 (19.6%): ====================================
  4 (53.8%): ===================================================================
  5 (79.7%): ==================================================
  6 (92.9%): =========================
  7 (97.9%): =========
  8 (99.5%): ===

Avg fights survived: 0.1
  0 (87.9%): ===================================================================
  1 (99.6%): ========

Daily used: 53.2%

LEVEL 6 SOLDIER VS. DWARF GREATWEAPON FIGHTER
Days simulated: 100000

Avg rounds: 4.5
  3 (19.2%): =================================
  4 (57.5%): ===================================================================
  5 (83.4%): =============================================
  6 (94.9%): ====================
  7 (98.6%): ======
  8 (99.7%): =

Avg fights survived: 0.0
  0 (96.0%): ===================================================================
  1(100.0%): ==

Daily used: 45.5%

So... if you want to make sure your solo dwarf greatweapon fighter doesn't survive the night, throw a level + 5 soldier at him.

I'm looking forward to seeing how a full party (with healing!) changes the mix.