D&D Still Leads ICv2's Quarterly Hobby Game Rankings

ICv2 has just released its hobby game rankings for Spring 2015, based as always on a survey of retailers, distributors, and manufacturers. The top three positions are exactly the same as the previous Fall/Holiday 2014 positions - D&D followed by Pathfinder, followed by FFG's Star Wars line of products. Following that, Numenera and Fate have been displaced by Shadowrun and Iron Kingdoms (the latter presumably based on Privateer Press' recent, highly promoted Iron Kingdoms Unleashed boxed set). As always, I've added this latest ranking to my compiled chart.

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Top 5 RPGs Spring 2015

1	Dungeons & Dragons	Wizards of the Coast
2	Pathfinder	Paizo Publishing
3	Star Wars	Fantasy Flight Games
4	Shadowrun	Catalyst Game Labs
5	Iron Kingdoms	Privateer Press

You can find the report here on ICv2. It pretty much matches the Orr Group's Q2 usage data, and Fantasy Grounds' Q1-2 2015 report as well as EN World's own Hot Games Chart.

Interestingly, ICv2 is also reporting that the hobby games market size has grown to $880 million. In 2013, they reported the market size as $700 million. That's divided as follows:

Market size 2013-2015 ($ millions)

Category	2013	2015
Collectible games	$450	$550
Miniatures	$125	$125
Boardgames	$75	$125
Card & dice games	$35	$55
Roleplaying games	$15	$25
Total	$700	$880

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RPGs have grown from $15 to $25 million in the last two years, which is an enormous increase. ICv2 reports it as the fastest growing segment, while miniatures are the lowest growing with fairly flat sales over the period. Boardgames, also, have a very notable increase.

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[Nylanfs]

Yea! Graphporn!

 

[Perram]

I know you don't have it, Morrus, but I really wish we could see some numbers here besides the rankings, like actual sales numbers.

The RP industry grew from $15 million to $25 million. How much of that is new D&D players? How much of that is increased sales all around.

A lot of the evidence that I've seen suggests that its mostly NEW players, and mostly new D&D 5e players at that.

Paizo reported in the fall that Pathfinder sales hadn't gone down, and the Online RPG Tabletop charts seem to show a big spike around the time D&D launched on steam through Fantasy Grounds and started advertising itself across video game websites. Twitch.tv has huge numbers of people playing games online now, playing everything from D&D 5e to FIRST EDITION EARTHDAWN of all things! (Much love for Earthdawn, btw.)

 

[Jester David]

I said a while back that this would be the decisive chart. D&D was going to win the fall. No ifs ands or buts. But the spring is the decider. After the initial spike of sales, would continued sales of the core books and the adventures be enough? The answer is "yes".
Still, the fall will be interesting to see.

I know you don't have it, Morrus, but I really wish we could see some numbers here besides the rankings, like actual sales numbers.

The RP industry grew from $15 million to $25 million. How much of that is new D&D players? How much of that is increased sales all around.

I imagine most at of it is D&D.
I adore and respect Paizo and its staff, and 3.x taught me to love, but the game isn't doing anything so radical as to cause that much growth. A near doubling. There wasn't $10 million worth of players sitting in the wings going "gee, I'd so love to play, if only Pathfinder had a second starter book for me to buy."

It is a reminder how much larger D&D's audience is than Pathfinder’s. Pathfinder "won" as much because people weren't buying D&D books as they were moving to Pathfinder.

Paizo reported in the fall that Pathfinder sales hadn't gone down, and the Online RPG Tabletop charts seem to show a big spike around the time D&D launched on steam through Fantasy Grounds and started advertising itself across video game websites.

I'll be interesting to see how Pathfinder's sales are doing now. Being stable makes sense in the low-hardcover fall. The ACG had a lot of desirability, as did the Monster Codex as that made favourite monsters more usable (I've used the MC more in six months than the Bestiary 4 in eighteen). And I imagine a lot of converting PF players are still trying to have that final game/AP of PF.
The limited releases of 5e help. People can easily buy both product lines without bankrupting themselves. So many gaming books are bought just to read, as Pathfinder is just as good for that, especially the campaign setting books.

I wonder how how many people there are like me. The Monster Codex was my final hard copy Pathfinder RPG book. I didn't need the Strategy Guide. And since I'm ending campaigns and not starting them (and it has limited PFS usability) Unchained is of equally limited use. I want to get Occult Adventures, and wish that book have been released years ago, but I can't imagine it getting any use. Like Unchained, I'll likely grab a PDF for review purposes. (After the disappointment that was the ACG, I wish I'd switched just to PDFs then.)
But we'll see. I still have 6-8 sessions left of Skull & Shackles before I put my group through a 5e mini-game. We'll see if they want to convert immediately after that or if they want to give Pathfinder another last hurrah. I have Carrion Crown on my shelf and Occult Adventures would pair nicely with that.

 

[Ashran]

What I wonder, as to the selling of pathfinder, is the impact of the subscriptions they have running for most of their lines (adventure path, the setting etc). I know I am subscribed to two of them, but I don't play pathfinder (mostly because my group is not too keen to get back to 3.5 and nowadays prefer 5th edition). I personnaly use the subscription for ideas for my campaigns and adapt to 5th edition or 13th age what I find interesting... I know i wouldn't probably be buying thoses books if d&d 5th edition was releasing more products... I wonder how many people are in the same case as me or if I am an isolated case...

 

[Maggan]

The subscription-based business model was the true genius of the Paizo play. It gives them a steady income, and a very predictable customer number to fit their printing to. So I think you, Ashran, is a very good representative of a Paizo customer.

 

[Ashran]

The subscription-based business model was the true genius of the Paizo play. It gives them a steady income, and a very predictable customer number to fit their printing to. So I think you, Ashran, is a very good representative of a Paizo customer.

I guess you are right, but I never considered myself as a representative customer.... since I am not playing their game, but using their products as spare parts to fuel other games (mostly because those games are not providing what I am looking for, which are small, good adventures and interesting settings....)

BTW, I also buy third party products for any system to canibalize them for my needs... I dunno if we are many to do such a thing

 

[Doctor Futurity]

What I wonder, as to the selling of pathfinder, is the impact of the subscriptions they have running for most of their lines (adventure path, the setting etc). I know I am subscribed to two of them, but I don't play pathfinder (mostly because my group is not too keen to get back to 3.5 and nowadays prefer 5th edition). I personnaly use the subscription for ideas for my campaigns and adapt to 5th edition or 13th age what I find interesting... I know i wouldn't probably be buying thoses books if d&d 5th edition was releasing more products... I wonder how many people are in the same case as me or if I am an isolated case...

You're not alone. I buy Pathfinder and OSR modules for use with D&D a lot currently, since none really exist for 5E and the "unofficial" PDFs out there are all of unverifiable quality.

 

[Lilith]

A healthy gaming industry is good for everybody, turns out.

 

[arjomanes]

I wonder if it helps the industry that it's pretty easy to convert Pathfinder & 3PP over to 5e? I'm regularly buying OGL/PF/3PP adventures and settings and converting them on the fly to 5e.

I'm definitely buying more Pathfinder to convert with 5e than I was with the BECMI game I was running when I burnt out from PFRPG. I'm also accumulating quite the collection of old school AD&D PDFs.