How big's the RPG market?

[Morrus]

@Morrus,

In regards to Miniatures, does this refer to individual miniature sales from manufacturers or miniatures games?

ICv2 says it's "non-collectible miniatures lines (hobby channel)."

The top 5 in Fall 2016 (the latest stats) were:

Star Wars X-Wing
Warhammer 40K
Warmachine
Warhammer Age of Sigmar
Hordes

[Maelish]

@Morrus,

Thanks, that explains quite a bit.

[Tony Vargas]

Perhaps the bigger takeaway here is just how much TTRPG's have grown since the release of 5e. There were ballpark estimates of the TTRPG market being about 30 million in the 3e years,

I heard they were guestimating around 20 million c2007 - maybe 25+ million as potential growth. As contrasted to the 50-100 million of a Hasbro 'Core Brand' at the time.

in the 4e years, particularly when WotC stopped producing new books (one number I heard tossed around was about 15 million).

Yep.

If that's true...

Doubled since the end of the 3e era seems a pretty safe claim. That's equivalent to 6% annual growth. Only the heath care industry would turn up it's nose at that kind of growth.

We’re not discussing global sales of games and puzzles. We’re discussing the North American hobby game market. Entirely different thing.

It is an interesting perspective, though. As tiny as RPGs are compared to the giants of the 'hobby game' market, that whole market, itself, isn't exactly a major segment of the global market for games in general...

Yeah, I imagine that you can massage the numbers a number of different ways depending on what you include and exclude. I mean, puzzles, I imagine, are a pretty big thing world wide. I know I certainly see them everywhere.

'Gaming' in the sense of gambling (and it is often used in that sense outside of TT & video gaming circles) is obviously enormous, for instance.

Interesting data. To me this is an awful hybrid of Idiocracy and Sturgeon's Law writ large: People prefer easy, instant gratification entertainment. Going to the movies or playing a video game (or most video games) requires little to no imagination and creativity.

We're not fringe, we're Elite?

[ChampionoftheTriad]

So, I suppose we should all thank our lucky stars that we have nice printed books at all. The good news, is that the entire industry could dry up and blow away tomorrow, and we'd all have enough gaming materials to play for multiple lifetimes.

[Mercurius]

I'm not sure I'd blame people too much for that though. Running a game is not easy and it's a HUGE time sink. I can totally understand why someone isn't interested in it. Never minding that trying to organize a group on a regular basis can be a big nightmare as well.

There's a bunch of pretty big hurdles that you need to jump in order to have a good gaming group that routinely produces fun sessions. Really, it's no different than restaurants. Sure, there's all sorts of fantastic restaurants serving wonderful food out there, but, y'know what? McDonalds fits the bill. Never minding that going to a restaurant is essentially just consuming other people's work. It's not like i have to do any work to sit down in a restaurant. But, do I prefer easy, instant gratification just because I haven't learned how to be a sushi chef? Not really. I'm just not interested in learning how to be a sushi chef.

It's easy to pooh pooh going to the movies or playing a video game, but, let's be honest here, both are pretty fun things to do. People aren't wrong for preferring them.

I'm not blaming anyone for anything, and I love going to the movies (although not a big fan of video games). I'm not even saying people are "wrong" for preferring them, but on the other hand I do think some activities are generally more creative, imagination, life-affirming, etc.

We're not fringe, we're Elite?

Well, sometimes the two overlap. But I wouldn't say tabletop RPGs are "elite" as much as they are a highly creative activity that requires a large amount of effort and use of imagination.

[Henry]

Well, sometimes the two overlap. But I wouldn't say tabletop RPGs are "elite" as much as they are a highly creative activity that requires a large amount of effort and use of imagination.

The irony is that the RPG and Comic Book markets are the markets that drive the creative fuel of the film and computer game markets, yet see the least return; but then, that's all of life. By its nature, you buy a handful of stuff, and then get tons of return value on comparatively small purchases, but with computer games, movies, collectible games, you're ALWAYS needing to buy more. A computer game that you get 80 hours of entertainment out of is considered a "huge" game, with most games being more like 40 or 50 hours; We get hundreds of hours out of the 5e or Pathfinder core sets alone, for about the same costs.

Some computer games break this mold, like Fallout 4, Skyrim, etc. but those are uncommon in the industry, likely due to the time and expense involved in production. Playing devil's advocate a moment, what production house wants to spend 5 years making a massive game that costs the same to buy as a game you can turn out in one or two years, for a tenth of the QA and production costs and sell for the same price and sell more units of, and the market just turns around and says, "more, please?" Massive CRPGs still make money, it's why we still get them, but the model is not as friendly to the bottom line, and I would guess for similar reasons of time and expense.

[Jay Verkuilen]

So we can say, backed by statistics, we are the coolest kids in town?
Plus, since the mainstream market of video games draw a lot of inspiration from tabletop RPG, we can say we are trendy too?

So... the hipster defense?

[Jay Verkuilen]

I'm not sure I'd blame people too much for that though. Running a game is not easy and it's a HUGE time sink. I can totally understand why someone isn't interested in it. Never minding that trying to organize a group on a regular basis can be a big nightmare as well.

Yes, having come off running a game for a while where the "herding cats" problem got way out of hand, I have to say I'm burned out from it. All too often scheduling falls to the DM, too, which is one of the most thankless and awful tasks around.

It's easy to pooh pooh going to the movies or playing a video game, but, let's be honest here, both are pretty fun things to do. People aren't wrong for preferring them.

Yeah, and you can understand why games that don't involve any kind of DM labor, most notably coop video games, are often popular. I don't like them myself because most of them are essentially "shoot and loot" type games without any story, but for people who were playing mostly "shoot and loot" type tabletop why bother with the complexity of a tabletop game?

[Jay Verkuilen]

Collectible games more or less require constant purchases. They aren't marketing any better. It is just the nature of the game. Compared to board games, RPGs are in an interesting position in that I can sit down and play a game of Dominion in 45 minutes, which works for many lifestyles. RPGs, by their nature, require what....3-4 hour sessions, which is great for those that are into them, but bad for pulling in the casual player. In other words, what makes them awesome fun is also what limits their audience. You are simply appealing to a smaller group of potential customers, but with arguably a much greater intensity.

Collectibles also have the substantial benefit of supporting pickup play way more easily than RPGs. The rules are usually written on the card or are pretty short once you know them. Getting into M:tG is pretty easy with a pre-constructed deck. Players who don't know each other can sit down and play together in a way that's more challenging with a TTRPG. Hobby board games are kind of intermediate in the sense that many have more complicated rules and players can't easily bring their own gear. The fact that collectibles involve lots of repeat purchases is a big plus for publishers, too.

[Charon'sLittleHelper]

The irony is that the RPG and Comic Book markets are the markets that drive the creative fuel of the film and computer game markets, yet see the least return; but then, that's all of life.

I think that's largely due to the cost/risk involved.

Coming out with a new TTRPG, novel, or comic book costs a few thousand dollars.

Coming out with even a AA video game or movie costs millions.

Therefore movies & video games don't want to take major risks when other media can. Hence their wanting to re-use premises from other media which are already proven to be solid. Sure - they're gaining something of a fan base, but it's moreso because it's been proven in the cheaper media already.

It's not really surprising. It's just good business. (And it's why indie films CAN take bigger risks, though frankly, many suck in ways that has nothing to do with their lower budgets.)

[The_Gunslinger658]

I went to my local game shop yesterday and bought Tales from the Yawning Portal, $55.00 bucks it costed me. Sure I could have gone on ebay and got it for half of that but I want to help my local game store. Still, that is expensive and how these places survive is beyond me.

[jmucchiello]

Not sure this relates, but I always like to compare the RPG market to the market for things like soccer goal nets. There is definitely a market for soccer goal nets. But the number of people playing soccer is not directly related to sales of soccer goal nets. Many people play soccer for decades and never even consider buying a soccer goal net.

[GameDaddy]

Pretty tiny, is the answer. As of 2016/2017 it's about $35m in size, according to ICv2. That's of a Hobby Games market currently worth just over a billion dollars.

This is the most BS thing I have ever seen you post here. Please stop, unless you care to do real research, ICv 2 is full of you know what...

Just to start, the last time I tracked revenues for WOTC RPGs which was in the early 2000s. D&D 3e alone was netting more than $35M annually for WOTC in the United States. Now there were a few years during the 4e era where net revenues dropped, but on the whole, revenues have been increasing for hobby gaming and specifically for RPGs and collectible card games by an average of 7-10% per year. That would mean D&D should be netting somewhere in the neighborhood of around $70 Million a year right now, and I would not be surprised to see that figure significantly higher with foreign and overseas sales included.

A quick check with the Dun & Bradstreet Hoover report indicates that in 2016 Wizards of the Coast generated over $295 Million Dollars in revenues, now that income estimate is for both D&D as well as Magic:the Gathering, and whatever else WOTC may be hawking, but I'm pretty sure that $70 Million would not be an unreasonable figure out of that just for D&D 5e sales.

Then there is all the other "RPG Gaming" companies. Paizo, Warhammer, Steve Jackson Games, Modiphus, Catalyst Game Labs... and so many more. Do you really think that Paizo makes less than $5 million a year when they have been the #1 RPG sales company for the last three years running, really? So hobby gaming is much larger than anything ICv would admit to, mostly on account ICv is a mouthpiece for, and wants to hawk video games and support the movie industry franchises (Which still despises the hobby gaming Industry in general and the RPG gaming Industry in particular) games over anything the home-brewed hobby industry. ...and these are just the American Game companies I'm talking about. pls do more research before posting unsubstantiated claims like this on your own message boards.

Hobby Gaming has been growing again by extraordinary leaps and bounds over the last few years...

D&B Hoover Report on WOTC 2016 link
http://www.hoovers.com/company-infor...d3cb27d0c.html

Hasbro 2017 10k filing with the SEC confirming 10% growth for Hobby Games
https://www.last10k.com/sec-filings/...htm#fullReport

Marketwatch report on Hasbro 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing...has/financials

[Morrus]

This is the most BS thing I have ever seen you post here. Please stop

I think you may be confused. You appear to be under the bizarre impression that you’re the boss of me.

Just to start, the last time I tracked revenues for WOTC RPGs which was in the early 2000s. D&D 3e alone was netting more than $35M annually for WOTC in the United States.

Cite? Why should I believe your tracking over ICv2s?

the last time I tracked revenues for WOTC RPGs which was in the early 2000s.

It will need to be a lot more recent than that.

[LordEntrails]

@GameDaddy,
Have you ever heard the saying that starts "You catch more flies..."?

Starting off so incredibly insulting is not the way to make your point. If someone can throw out or completely ignore your first two paragraphs, you actually start to say something worthwhile and give some reasonable support for it.

Now if you want to actually be helpful and not act like a troll, you could actually take that data you cite and put it into graphs, numbers, charts or other format for those of use without an understanding of financial statements that presents it in a factual, simplified, and useful for this audience manner.

[Hussar]

Umm, Paizo has been number one for the past three years? Did I read that right? Where is that from? As I understand it, the only time Paizo pulled ahead of WotC was the tail end of 4e and then when WotC spent two years not putting out any books at all.

I don't think I buy that Paizo is selling better than WotC.

[The_Gunslinger658]

I think with 4E sucking so bad, Paizo was able to out sell WoTC during the bad days of 4E. I know I quit playing when 4E came out, that was not D&D, I wonder how many others quit because that really affected WoTC to the point that 4E must have been the shortest lived edition in D&D history.

Umm, Paizo has been number one for the past three years? Did I read that right? Where is that from? As I understand it, the only time Paizo pulled ahead of WotC was the tail end of 4e and then when WotC spent two years not putting out any books at all.

I don't think I buy that Paizo is selling better than WotC.

[Joseph Nardo]

What is really fascinating is that the global "games" market which includes everything that is considered gaming has eclipsed $24 billion!. It has even surpassed the global market for box office movies!!!!.

[GameDaddy]

I think you may be confused. You appear to be under the bizarre impression that you’re the boss of me.

Uhhhmm. no, not the boss of you, just displeased that you would not do proper research before estimating the size of the RPG Industry.

Cite? Why should I believe your tracking over ICv2s?

Already provided. D&B Says WOTC earned somewhere in the neighborhood of $295 Million in 2016. That's D&D, Magic, Everything else. Magic is still #1 of course. I have seen D&D 5e in every book and game store still around. That means it's probably #2. What makes you think WOTC would be earning less than they did in 2003-2005? ...and we are not even looking at the other big RPG companies. green Ronin, SJG Games. Games Workshop.


Ooooh... check this out. Earning report for Games Workshop alone from June-November of 2016 - 13.8 Million pounds AFTER EXPENSES, which is something like $17.6 Million dollars at current exchange rates, they alone are earning almost $40 million a year AFTER EXPENSES. WOTC is still bigger than them. What does that make your ridiculous claim.

Games Workshop Earning Report 2016 (1/2 year report)
https://19485-presscdn-0-14-pagely.n...ment-final.pdf

It will need to be a lot more recent than that.

Why are you pretending the established RPG companies are not making any money?

You can still redeem yourself by being a man, and fessing up, and then go do some real research and report back on your website with some semblance of truth, instead of the absolutely ridiculous claim you started this thread with.

[Morrus]

Uhhhmm. no, not the boss of you, just displeased that you would not do proper research before estimating the size of the RPG Industry.

You’re still confused. I haven’t estimated anything. I am reporting on the estimates of an industry magazine, as I have done for many years now.

Already provided. D&B Says WOTC earned somewhere in the neighborhood of $295 Million in 2016. That's D&D, Magic, Everything else. Magic is still #1 of course. I have seen D&D 5e in every book and game store still around. That means it's probably #2. What makes you think WOTC would be earning less than they did in 2003-2005? ...and we are not even looking at the other big RPG companies. green Ronin, SJG Games. Games Workshop.

Lots of guessing there. Why should I believe your guesses over ICv2’s research? Who are you?

You need to put up or shut up. Present your research. If it’s credible, I’ll gladly report on it.

Ooooh... check this out. Earning report for Games Workshop alone from June-November of 2016 - 13.8 Million pounds AFTER EXPENSES, which is something like $17.6 Million dollars at current exchange rates, they alone are earning almost $40 million a year AFTER EXPENSES. WOTC is still bigger than them. What does that make your ridiculous claim.

OK..

First: calm down. You’re getting excited.

Second: you are comparing different markets. WotC isn’t D&D and Games Workshop isn’t roleplaying games.

Third: if you have an issue with ICv2’s research, take it up with them. If you have credible alternate research, present it, and I might report on it.

Why are you pretending the established RPG companies are not making any money?

You can still redeem yourself by being a man, and fessing up, and then go do some real research and report back on your website with some semblance of truth, instead of the absolutely ridiculous claim you started this thread with.[/I]

Oh, for goodness’ sake. I don’t have time for baby internet anger-monkeys. Learn some basic social skills or go elsewhere. “Redeem yourself”, “be a man”, “fess up”, “ridiculous claim” – really? All in one sentence? About some industry stats? Dude.