Grading Daily Powers

[Cadfan]

Originally Posted by Mengu

The main reason I like it is because it reduces miss chance from... ...50% to 25%...

In terms of expected damage per round, this is exactly as good as adding "Miss: Half damage" to a power. If you hit on a number below an 11, its better. Above is worse, but now that you know that, you'll choose targets wisely.

[ZSutherland]

My player's named the party wizard's Flaming Sphere Bob. They picked out a bright orange d20 to be Bob's mini, and he stays with their character's minis, never in a dice bag. I expect he'll soon start getting a share of the loot from one encounter every day. I think we know what their opinion is.

[keterys]

Cadfan, it appears that your scale is just slightly higher than mine, but if you decrease your recommendations by a partial grade they're a lot closer to mine. That said:

Originally Posted by Cadfan

Cascade of Light- gives single target damage to a class that mostly lacks it and can add up to quite a lot of damage if the same is failed. Worth at least a B. You can get some extra damage with some damaging zone powers, but that doesn't really factor into my final decision that much because it usually requires multiple dailies to be fired off at once.

Err, what? Since when do Clerics lack for single target lasers? Normals will die too quickly to get much out of the vulnerability, while elites and solos are _really_ likely to make their save. It's best combined with other dailies and action point expenditure, definitely.

Brute Strike- Worth at least a B-. Everyone laughs at it because its just 3[W]+Str with Reliable, and that seems like its half as much of a Daily as other classes which usually get 3[W]+Stat and an added effect. But, consider who's using it. Fighter's [W]s tend to be much bigger than everyone elses. With a maul, this power does 6d6+str damage at level 1.

The greatsword is no better than the bastard sword and the maul is no better than the greatsword.

Split the Tree- this is where your "grade down if no Miss: Half or Reliable" rule starts to fall through. Some powers haven't got a Miss: Half or a Reliable entry, but usually they have some other effect to help assure their accuracy. In this case, Split the Tree gives you two attack rolls, and you pick the better of the two. This is a very significant increase in accuracy. Against a target that is hit on a 11+, you get the same overall expected damage as you would from a power which read, "4[W]+dex+dex, Miss: Half." The damage is spread around a little, which lessens the knock out effects, but the overall damage is basically the highest available of any level 1 daily power in the game (except for wizards with tightly packed foes). I'd give this an A.

Split the Tree is not equivalent 4W+Dex+Dex, Miss: Half, anymore than Scorching Burst is 5d6+5xInt, Miss: Half On the very same level and class, Jaws of the Wolf deals more expected useful damage than Split the Tree. Freezing Cloud on only two targets does almost equal damage on _all misses_. Nevermind the damage potential of Flaming Sphere, Guardian of Faith, or Villain's Menace. Dailies have a much higher spread of ability and Split the Tree isn't in the same ballpark with the As. I could probably up it to a B, as one notch below Jaws' B+, even if I'm protesting all the while. I won't do another round of updates for a day though.

Hunter's Bear Trap- not that great, but not bad for an archery Ranger. Ongoing 5 is worth as much as an extra W, guaranteed, and sometimes is worth more. Would you rate this as poorly if it read, "3[W]+Dex, target is slowed, save ends, Miss: Half damage?" Because that's actually worse.

I would rate it the same pretty much. 5.5 damage up front, 2.75 damage on Miss vs. ~7 via ongoing on Hit and 0 on Miss.

Easy Target- awkward power. Its almost better to miss with it in order to guarantee yourself a second round of combat advantage, instead of relying on the target to save. I'd rate it even more poorly just because of that annoyance.

Heh, but guaranteed combat advantage on a Miss seemed like a nice consolation prize

Armor of Agathys- Good, but it requires you to go into melee reach of your foes with a class that isn't cut out for that. And the Infernal warlock, the one most likely to not mind, already has enough non stacking temporary hit points not to get excited. I'd just give it a B.

Auto kills minions and makes it extremely painful for foes to even try attacking. Weirdly even if your entire turn is just defensing and/or stealthing, the damage output can be quite solid. Nice synergy with Eyebite too.

Dread Star- compatible with the Star pact paragon path (and very little is). Probably worth a B.

Curse of the Dark Dream- sliding enemies is just so darn useful. I'd give it a B.

Flames of Phlegethos- Total damage is very high on a hit. On a miss, it does minor damage. Worth at least a B.

I think all three of these are the same 'My scale is lower than yours' problem. Flames of Phlegethos for instance is basically a 3W and kicker spell with no Miss: Half... and 3W + kicker with Miss: ~Half is a B- or C+ depending on the kicker.

[Mengu]

Originally Posted by keterys

I think all three of these are the same 'My scale is lower than yours' problem. Flames of Phlegethos for instance is basically a 3W and kicker spell with no Miss: Half... and 3W + kicker with Miss: ~Half is a B- or C+ depending on the kicker.

Your scale must be lower than mine too, when it comes to Warlock powers, except for Armor of Agathys, in which case your scale seems to be higher than mine.

Curse of the Dark dream is no worse than Pin the Foe, and you have that one at a B. And I'm still not impressed with Armor of Agathys, based on the primary role of a Warlock. As a Fighter power, it would be pretty incredible, as a Warlock power it's a bit counter-intuitive.

[Cadfan]

Originally Posted by keterys

Cadfan, it appears that your scale is just slightly higher than mine, but if you decrease your recommendations by a partial grade they're a lot closer to mine.

Except that I agree with you on a lot of powers. I just think you devalue certain ones.

Err, what? Since when do Clerics lack for single target lasers? Normals will die too quickly to get much out of the vulnerability, while elites and solos are _really_ likely to make their save. It's best combined with other dailies and action point expenditure, definitely.

I should have been more clear. Clerics lack GOOD single target damage, particularly at low levels, and they are extremely lacking in knockout power.

The greatsword is no better than the bastard sword and the maul is no better than the greatsword.

Eh? A maul user with Brute Strike and 18 strength clocks in at average damage on a hit of 22. A greatsword user clocks in at 20.5. In any case, that wasn't the point- the point was that 6d6+str is higher than the expected damage output on a hit of most other daily abilities of that level. The only ones that compare are sneak attacking rogues using rapiers, rangers using Hunter's Quarry, and wizards who are hitting multiple foes with an area of effect attack. A Fighter often gets more out of 3[W] than other classes because he often has a bigger [W].

Split the Tree is not equivalent 4W+Dex+Dex, Miss: Half, anymore than Scorching Burst is 5d6+5xInt, Miss: Half

No, it is. And while Scorching Burst isn't equivalent "Miss: Half" under any circumstances, its damage IS properly calculated based on how many foes you expect to fit inside the burst. That's why Wizard damage is so much higher than some people think- the damage of an area spell is multiplied by the targets struck.

Lets say you hit on an 11+ with Split the Tree. If you hit, you will deal 2[W]+dex to each target (and you'll get your hunter's quarry on one, probably, but we'll leave that aside). Since its Split the Tree, you roll twice and keep the better one. We'll ignore the increased chance of a critical hit.

Your possible rolls are, with equal odds for each,

Hit, Hit, choose to Hit
Hit, Miss, choose to Hit
Miss, Hit, choose to Hit
Miss, Miss, you have to Miss.

So you've got a 75% chance of hitting. If you hit, your total damage is 2[W]+Dex per target, for a total of 4[W]+2[Dex]. Lets give you a 1d10 longbow, and +4 dex. This makes your total expected damage .75*(4*5.5+2*4)= 22.5.

If you were using a Miss: Half power that also dealt 4[W]+2[Dex] and hit on an 11+, you'd have expected damage of .5*(4*5.5+2*4) + .5*.5*(4*5.5+2*4) = 22.5.

Its exactly the same. Miss: Half increases your expected damage by one half times your chance of missing times your expected damage. When you hit on an 11+, that's .25*expected damage. When you roll twice and hit on an 11+, you increase your chance of hitting by 25%. The outcome is the same. If the number you hit on rises, Miss: Half improves. If it falls, the double roll method improves.

The two options are easily compared to one another, and Miss: Half comes out about even.

For the record, you rated Jaws of the Wolf as a B+.

Its expected damage, if your strength 18 ranger hits on an 11+ with longswords, is 2d8+4 per hit, and half that on a miss. You get a kicker of +1d6 either way, from Hunter's Quarry, since that occurs on damage dealt, not on a miss. So overall, your expected damage per attack is

.5*(2*4.5+4) + .5*.5*(2*4.5+4) = 9.75

times 2 for two attacks, plus a guaranteed 3.5 from hunter's quarry, gives you 23 damage. The longsword ranger gets +1 extra weapon proficiency, but the ranger can use Prime Shot, so that's about a wash with a slight edge to Jaws. Also, the 22 I quoted above for Split the Tree did not include Hunter's Quarry, which increases overall damage by 3.5*.75 = 2.625, raising the overall result to 24.625.

These powers are almost exactly the same in terms of damage. They have various minor benefits (prime shot takes effort, as does marking ranged quarries, but the ranged combatant can choose his foes more easily, etc etc), but the overall damage output is very, very similar, certainly enough so to justify about equal ratings.

[keterys]

your total damage is 2[W]+Dex per target, for a total of 4[W]+2[Dex]

Damage to multiple targets is not equivalent to damage to a single target. That was the point I was trying to make.

Hence.
Equivalent Damage _but_ must apply to two targets (minor penalty) and requires proper target selection (minor penalty)

Either the ranger using Jaws of the Wolf needs to have a higher hit bonus (proficiency) or do d10s... and I still find it interesting that you assume rangers won't take either bastard swords or TWF feats to improve their damage, since that's one of their strengths (other classes can't boost their damage as much in that way).

Prime Shot is no easier to acquire than flank and CA provides a larger bonus.

[keterys]

Originally Posted by Mengu

Your scale must be lower than mine too, when it comes to Warlock powers, except for Armor of Agathys, in which case your scale seems to be higher than mine.

That one's easy -
1) The amount of temp hp at level 1 is enormous
2) the armor is extremely powerful if used in an atypical fashion

It doesn't change the fact that even if you use it for _1 round_ of attacks on adjacent enemies it can output more guaranteed damage than any of the other warlock daily 1s. Even just 1d6+Con+(Enh/Feat/etc) to 2 opponents compares favorably to the 3d10+5ongoing and a 40% miss chance from Phlegethos, and I rather assume that optimal use for it involves using it on more than 2 opponents or getting _at least some_ benefit from the temp hp, even if not the 2 surges worth that it gives you at level 1

Curse of the Dark dream is no worse than Pin the Foe, and you have that one at a B. And I'm still not impressed with Armor of Agathys, based on the primary role of a Warlock. As a Fighter power, it would be pretty incredible, as a Warlock power it's a bit counter-intuitive.

Curse of the Dark Dream doesn't last for a whole encounter. Pin the Foe is increased under the assumption that it gives you a notable tactical advantage.

Like so:

Fighter is flanking a red dragon with a Rogue+Warlord with a Guardian of Faith also beating on it.

If the Red Dragon does not move at least a square each round, it loses use of its tail slap ability, it gets attacked by the Guardian, and it can't line up breath weapons as effectively.

If it tries to move, the fighter gets an OA to prevent the movement entirely (plus the rogue + warlord get to do some damage).

That's Pin the Foe really screwing someone up... screwed enough that I assumed an enemy would take at least OA hit or provide a lot more flank during the course of the battle, which made it worth more damage = a higher grade.

Disclaimer: I only assumed the one OA / extra flanks, though, not the extreme case I outlined.

[Cadfan]

Originally Posted by keterys

Damage to multiple targets is not equivalent to damage to a single target. That was the point I was trying to make.

Its not identical, no. Sometimes its worse, because you fail to drop your target. Sometimes its better, because you drop two targets. Sometimes its better because there's less "leftover" damage above and beyond what you needed to drop the target.

Either the ranger using Jaws of the Wolf needs to have a higher hit bonus (proficiency) or do d10s... and I still find it interesting that you assume rangers won't take either bastard swords or TWF feats to improve their damage, since that's one of their strengths (other classes can't boost their damage as much in that way).

I left feats out because they multiply complexity. Yes, a melee Ranger can take Proficiency: Bastard Swords, Two Weapon Fighting, and then Weapon Focus: Bastard Swords. The archery Ranger can take feats as well. Yes, there are more damage options for melee Ranger feats, but at this level of complexity, we're dealing with too much data, I think. How are we to compare the archery Ranger's lackluster feat choices against the melee Ranger's poor stat distribution? I've got no idea. So I figure we just hold those things constant.

Prime Shot is no easier to acquire than flank and CA provides a larger bonus.

Archery Rangers can snipe.

Also, I note that you consider target selection a negative. Its not, its a positive.

[Mengu]

Originally Posted by keterys

It doesn't change the fact that even if you use it for _1 round_ of attacks on adjacent enemies it can output more guaranteed damage than any of the other warlock daily 1s.

I'm not denying the potential damage over the course of several rounds, or the nice temp HP's. I'm just saying, that's not exactly what's expected of the Warlock. I expect him to do concentrated damage, per his role. And all other powers are more in line with this role. If I'm the Cleric giving him the Lance of Faith bonus, I expect him to put that to good use with a big attack, not some wussy minion killer that the Wizard already has covered in spades. I also don't want the Warlock to be running into the middle of three brutes (or skirmishers) just to do a bit of controller-like damage to all of them, only to get mauled. I have more important people to heal like the Defenders.

Originally Posted by keterys

Curse of the Dark Dream doesn't last for a whole encounter.

Sustain Minor, means it will typically last until the target you're focusing on is dead, which souldn't be long once you have them cornered like this. You don't have anything better to do with minor actions until you kill him anyway since you should have cursed him already.

[FadedC]

Doesn't Guardian of the Faith still occupy a square, and thus somebody else can't share it's space? I know people can move through it now, but I didn't think people could stop in it's square.

Lead the attack may or may not be as good as advertised, depending on how often your DM uses solo monsters. I would expect many adventures not to contain a single solo and this power really is kind of lackluster if used on an equal sized group. Still potentially an amazing power, but not quite in the "anyone who doesn't take this is a fool" category some are claiming.

Edit: Curse of the dark dreams is sort of oddly worded. You definitely can't sustain it any more once your target makes his save. The question is when does your enemy get to make a save? After the first attack or after it's first sustained?

[keterys]

Originally Posted by Mengu

I'm not denying the potential damage over the course of several rounds, or the nice temp HP's. I'm just saying, that's not exactly what's expected of the Warlock.

1 shot of Phlegethos = 19.9 expected damage. 2 hits of the Armor = 19 expected damage. The warlock doesn't need to run into melee to use it, but just use it when he's attacked to get solid value (really close damage plus 2 surge's worth of temp hp)

Sustain Minor, means it will typically last until the target you're focusing on is dead

You may have missed the save ends. It's likely to last a round or two at most.

Archery Rangers can snipe.

And they're often the _furthest_ from the target instead of the closest. Assuming Prime Shot all the time is just as valid as assuming the TWF Ranger always has flank, and it's probably best to just ignore both from the equation.

Which brings you down to the TWF ranger not having the same bonus for less damage, even ignoring the feats that let the TWF ranger inch ahead.

Also, I note that you consider target selection a negative. Its not, its a positive.

Requiring 2 targets within 3 to use it at all is a negative. Look at Eldritch Rain for a better option. Now Icy Rays. Or any number of powers that are 'one or two targets, one attack per target' or at _least_ don't require that the targets be so close.

[Korror]

Quick thought on the cleric's Guardian of Faith. Without a fighter, this power is not going to do very much damage at all. Since the monsters take damage only if they END next to the guardian, they will always be able to avoid damage as long as they can shift away (assuming they're not caught in a dead end or something). This means that the cleric has to keep sacrificing his move action if he wants to keep forcing the mobs to shift which will not always be possible. What if the cleric needs to move into range to keep an ally up or needs to shift to avoid a dangerous flank? In these cases, the guardian will probably not deal damage or force the monsters to stay mobile.

I think these limiting factors bump the power down to B+/B as it requires unusual circumstances or another specific class to be used for full effect while the other daily powers are effective all the time. I know you have a disclaimer that the powers are always assumed to be used in their most useful circumstances but it seems within reason to downgrade a power that shines once in a while but is only average most of the time. You seem to follow this reasoning with the ranger dailies as well.

Pardon me if I'm off on any details of this power, I'm at work and working off memory right now.

[keterys]

I did have it as a B+, but upgraded it last night (I think cause I upgraded Beacon of Hope and Flaming Sphere, the things I was comparing it to). I'm more than content to reduce it.

[keterys]

Oh, and I do hope that it's obvious I'm not personally attached to anything, but I do need to debate key points (or even devil's advocate in some circumstances) to get the bets results. Especially if the math I've done strictly disagrees (like the warlock dailies which I peg at sub-par but others peg at better than average).

[Mengu]

Originally Posted by keterys

1 shot of Phlegethos = 19.9 expected damage. 2 hits of the Armor = 19 expected damage. The warlock doesn't need to run into melee to use it, but just use it when he's attacked to get solid value (really close damage plus 2 surge's worth of temp hp)

How are you calculating those expected damage values? If you hit with Phlegethos, your average damage is 3d10+1d6(curse)+4+10(ongoing fire) = 34 points (ignoring crit). On a miss, the average damage is 10 points. Those 34 points are a lot of concentrated damage on a BBG.

Ranger's Jaws of the Wolf (a B+ power), if it hits twice, does 4d8+1d6(quarry)+8 = 29.5 damage. You need 2 feats (bastard sword, Leathal Hunter) to bring it up to the level of Phlegethos (34.5). On a miss it admittedly does more damage than Phlegethos.

Originally Posted by keterys

You may have missed the save ends. It's likely to last a round or two at most.

I didn't miss it. I just kind of forgot about it.

Originally Posted by keterys

Oh, and I do hope that it's obvious <snip>

Yes it is. No worries. For me this is just a good exercise to grasp the expected potency for different class powers at different levels.

[Cadfan]

And they're often the _furthest_ from the target instead of the closest. Assuming Prime Shot all the time is just as valid as assuming the TWF Ranger always has flank, and it's probably best to just ignore both from the equation.

Fair enough, sort of.

The following ignores criticals, which are ever so slightly in favor of Split the Tree, but not by a lot.

TWF Ranger, 18 str, using 1d10 proficiency 2 weapons, hitting on a 11+:

Expected damage: .5*(5.5*2+4) + .5*(5.5*2+4) + .5*.5*(5.5*2+4) + .5*.5*(5.5*2+4) + 3.5 = 7.5 + 7.5 + 3.75 + 3.75 = 26

Archery Ranger, 18 dex, using a 1d10 proficiency 2 weapon, hitting on an 11+:

2*.75*(5.5*2+4) + .75*3.5 = 25.125.

That's it. Meanwhile,

1. "Must be adjacent to target" is as much a targeting restriction as "targets two foes within 3 of one another, the former is arguably the more restrictive of the two, and it carries the most risk of personal harm.

2. If you change the axes to longswords and include the extra proficiency bonus, it actually makes things worse, because Miss: Half rewards high damage and low accuracy disproportionately in comparison to other power attributes.

Expected damage: .55*(4.5*2+4) + .55*(4.5*2+4) + .45*.5*(4.5*2+4) + .45*.5*(4.5*2+4) + 3.5 = 7.15 + 7.15 + 2.925 + 2.925 + 3.5 = 20.15.

3. If you give the TWF ranger proficiency in bastard swords and the archery ranger the boosted hunter's quarry, you get 25.845 for the archery ranger, and

Expected damage: .55*(5.5*2+4) + .55*(5.5*2+4) + .45*.5*(5.5*2+4) + .45*.5*(5.5*2+4) + 3.5 = 8.25 + 8.25 + 3.375 + 3.375 + 3.5 = 26.75.

which still fails to create a lead of an entire point of damage.

Eventually, as you add feats (or as you increase the AC of the target, the opposite being true as it decreases), the TWF ranger will pull ahead due to the availability of four damage boosting feats (bastard swords, weapon focus, two weapon fighting, lethal hunter), and the lack of damage boosting ranged feats. The archery ranger still receives benefits from feats, of course, they just won't be damage boosts.

Requiring 2 targets within 3 to use it at all is a negative. Look at Eldritch Rain for a better option. Now Icy Rays. Or any number of powers that are 'one or two targets, one attack per target' or at _least_ don't require that the targets be so close.

But 2 targets in 3 spaces of one another is a trivial thing to find in an encounter with multiple foes, and you get to pick the targets you most want dead. So you can pick off bloodied foes, or foes with low AC. Choosing to go after foes with low AC makes it even easier for you to beat the expected damage of the melee Ranger, as the lower the AC becomes, the more Split the Tree moves ahead.

[keterys]

Originally Posted by Mengu

How are you calculating those expected damage values?

Unfortunately I don't have the Phlegethos math on me, but I tend to assume a 60% hit rate and fluctuate level for usage a little to see if it changes drastically (like the armor is better at low level when the temp hp are huge) - like fire resist impacts Phl. more (not a ton, but it comes up at all and resist weapon doesn't) and JoW scales better with stat upgrades and enhancement bonuses.

I can say that for ongoing damage I was getting 1.4 rounds of average duration for dailies with saves, which I think was based on using an elite as the average target of a single target aily. Chance to save is, needless to say, pretty high even on a Normal.

The number I gave for Phlegethos vs. Armor I did in the car earlier just as a quick thing to dash off, though, and it is actually slightly low (I made some type of error in the car) from what I can see, but 3d10 + 4 * .55 + 34 * .05 + 7 (ongoing) = 19.98 is probably what I did actually.

On that note, may be interesting for me to run the daily 1s through something a bit more rigorous to compare them more easily. I don't want to do that for each cause honestly it takes time and there's a lot of powers to go through

[Mobius777]

I've really enjoyed thes threads on Daily, Encounter, and At-Will Powers. Great work!!!

I'm not a major power-gamer, but in 4th edition it is essential to have some idea of the effectiveness of each power.

If ever you have the time/interest to grade more powers (maybe Level 5 Daily Powers or Utility Powers), I'll be reading the ratings with great interest.

[Mengu]

Originally Posted by Mobius777

If ever you have the time/interest to grade more powers (maybe Level 5 Daily Powers or Utility Powers), I'll be reading the ratings with great interest.

Yeah, I think we need to do level 5 dailies and level 2 and 6 utilities, which will cover everything through level 7 for now. We ought to give keterys some time to do the hard work, and then bombard him with comments as usual.

[keterys]

Sorry, I'm really busy - full time job of course, but it hit a spike of activity last week, DMing 4 games, playing online, etc. So I pretty much have to do things in chunks. I delayed the daily 5s slightly cause I wanted to be a bit more rigorous on the math for the lower level powers because I think I was letting high level math (that is, high stat mods, damage bonuses from items, powers, etc) influence my thinking excessively on the low level powers.

I think I'll just go with the gut feeling and finish the daily 5s ASAP (but not until after the maptool/online game tonight cause that's lots more data entry and such), and revisit things with the math redone later.

The math model I'd started was to identify archtypes and levels to run #s on to compare, where I'll have 2-3 types of each character at levels 3, 7, 11, 15, 19, 25, 29 for benchmarks, so I'll know that a level 7 power is replaced at 23 so gets 7,11,15,19 benchmarks (which is quite a spread!)