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Between the loss of Dragon and Dungeon, and now the end of Dragonlance, things have reached a fever pitch in the (well-connected) D&D community. So then, let's ponder the worst-case scenario: what if 4E comes out, and doesn't use the OGL or anything like it, reverting to a totally closed-content game.
(As far as the worst-case goes, I'm not considering D&D ceasing production altogether. Hasbro wouldn't sit on it unused; they'd sell it, and whoever bought it would want their money's worth, so there'd be more new material. I just don't see the death of D&D happening...at this point, anyway.)
So, 4E is out and only WotC (or whoever) can produce materials for it. What happens to all of the other publishers? What happens to the industry?
Sadly, I don't think the third-parties would fare very well. It's been said by many people on many occasions that WotC basically IS the tabletop RPG industry, and where it goes, people will follow. This spells bad news for companies that rely on the 3.5 rules for their games.
Many, I think, will try to rely on purely using the OGL to continue to produce 3.5-compatible products, especially in PDF format. At the beginning, there'll be a sizable part of the gamer population that wouldn't want to leave, and these'd remain a viable market. However, it likely wouldn't be too long before that crowd shrank, and said companies eventually faded out of existence. The ones who'd last the longest would likely be those using their own variants of the system (such as Green Ronin with Mutants & Masterminds).
Eventually, though, all of them would return from whence they came, taking us back to the days of 1E/2E when, save for a few licensed products from the occasional other company, D&D was an isolated system, and you'd need to learn another rules set to play a different RPG.
I'd personally prefer not to go back to that, since I'm still being continually dazzled by what third-party companies are able to produce. But that's not up to me, and it may not be the standard for much longer.
What do you think will happen if that comes to pass?
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It will not affect me in the slightest. I may be unique around these parts, but I'm entirely comfortable learning new systems and I play non-D20 games far more often than I play or buy D20 ones.
That being said, I'd be sad to see Mutants and Masterminds, Castles and Crusades, Midnight, True 20 or Darwin's World get into any difficulty because of this.
Well, it's pure speculation, but if 'pure' D&D, by 'pure' I mean D&D as it is owned by WotC, turned away from OGL all together and what we currently know as d20/OGL and became something different from what we have now AND didn't let anyone play in their sandbox, what would I do?
First off, assuming d20 was left in place, I'd still maintain my patronage of all the d20 things and places that I do now; Green Ronin, Malhavoc Press, Paizo Publishing, and others.
Secondly, if I liked whatever it was that was 4e, I'd buy it. If I didn't, I'd buy just the core stuff since, well, I'm a freelancer and I own tons of stuff that I don't play at all, or often, but would like to publish in or work on or play. I've got GURPS (3rd and 4th Editions), Traveler stuff (mostly d20), Everything Blue Planet 2.0 (except the GURPS box - no idea how I missed it), more WoD stuff than I care to admit, and so forth.
However, while I'm often an early adapter, there is a lot of stuff that has caught my attention, even liked, but I've never bought. An example is that I do not own any Heroes stuff and the only Paladium book I own is a Rift book on Atlantis (although I have played Rifts, I always used friends books).
Heroes 5th Edition looks cool, I wouldn't turn away a free copy and one day I might buy a new one, but...it's not happened yet. Heck, my Shadowrun collection skips editions, too. But, I used to play Shadow religiously back in the day. I remember when the Street Samurai catalog first came out, not to mention the novels, man was I in love.
If 4E breaks away from the D20 system, the fanbase will split, and an OGL alternative will be released almost as soon as it's announced. Adding an XP table and a character generation system is all that's needed to create a fully functioning game, and once that's done, a D&D alternative will be available almost immediately.
A strong enough third party company with a bookstore presence that got out in front of the change -- Paizo/Necromancer and Green Ronin are both good candidates for this -- would be able to make this a lot more than a temporary fork, since everything on the shelves at the moment it happened would support the OGL fork, rather than 4E.
Frankly, if someone like Paizo or Green Ronin wanted to tweak the problem areas of 3E and add their own flavor to things, I could see a lot of people enjoying those more than the WotC flavor they've got currently. The only reason to not do it now is that there's not enough of a market for an alternate set of core books.
If wtc didn't make 4.0 ogl, I would show them the door by fliping them the bird. and denying them my hard earned cash and patronage.
I think if we stick together 3.5 ogl games wont die. wtc will try everything in their power to make that happen, but it cant happen if we don't let it. we have the power.
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is 4e cool, yes. but ask me that again when i can play a druid ;p
Since the OGL is non-revocable it will continue, and I suspect that products released under it are likely to be at least 95% compatible with any 4th edition of D&D, although they won't be able to claim compatibility.
My current situation is that I use C&C for my ruleset and will only buy D&D product, from WotC or elsewhere, if it looks usable with C&C. This is still a win for WotC - without the OGL, when I burned out on 3e I'd almost certainly have quit RPGs, like I did during the 2e era. This way, they have a chance to sell me stuff - tempted by Dungeonscape & Heroes of Battle - as long as it's not too crunch-heavy.
If 4E breaks away from the D20 system, the fanbase will split, and an OGL alternative will be released almost as soon as it's announced. Adding an XP table and a character generation system is all that's needed to create a fully functioning game, and once that's done, a D&D alternative will be available almost immediately.
That's probably the most likely occurrence. WotC will probably still get the majority of the customers, but a 3.5 OGL game will have a strong following for a very long time.
I don't see major changes of the system, however, since those would only alienate all those fans sitting on their 3.5 books. The only chance would be if an alliance of the most important d20 producers was able to agree on publishing a new d20 variant together, and use it for all their new products. But I don't see the odds of that being very high, since every game designer tends to have his own ideas about developing rules...
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If 4E breaks away from the D20 system, the fanbase will split, and an OGL alternative will be released almost as soon as it's announced.
How much can you mess with the system under the OGL, and how much can mechanics be protected?
Say you wanted to create an OGL game where Fortitude, Reflex and Will were static defensive values rather than modifiers to checks and where everyone had access to every skill, with a modifier that automatically increased as you went up in levels (both intentionally cribbed from the new Star Wars). Could this be done?
How much can you mess with the system under the OGL, and how much can mechanics be protected?
Say you wanted to create an OGL game where Fortitude, Reflex and Will were static defensive values rather than modifiers to checks and where everyone had access to every skill, with a modifier that automatically increased as you went up in levels (both intentionally cribbed from the new Star Wars). Could this be done?
You could all of these - the OGL has absolutely no restrictions on altering the mechanics. The question here is how many people would buy this game.
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I'd like to think that if 4E doesn't use the OGL, enough people would depart for different systems to inflict serious commercial harm on WOTC.
What I can say for certain is that OSRIC will continue to carry the OGL torch, irrespective of what WOTC do. I'm not certain, but I think it's extremely likely, that C&C, True20 and other systems will also do that, and I think that in this case these systems would expand to fill the gap.
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If 4E breaks away from the D20 system, the fanbase will split, and an OGL alternative will be released almost as soon as it's announced. Adding an XP table and a character generation system is all that's needed to create a fully functioning game, and once that's done, a D&D alternative will be available almost immediately.
Yeah, quite likely.
Quote:
A strong enough third party company with a bookstore presence that got out in front of the change -- Paizo/Necromancer and Green Ronin are both good candidates for this -- would be able to make this a lot more than a temporary fork, since everything on the shelves at the moment it happened would support the OGL fork, rather than 4E.
Why not Mongoose? I know they have retreated a bit from d20, but they have the capacity to return any time, and probably do it faster than others and be distributed in the book trade.
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It should also be noted that WotC cannot put copyright on game mechanics, which means that any "evolutionary" stuff (i.e. 1/2 level bonus on all Saves/Defenses, skills, and damage, no more iterative attacks, etc) can be freely utilized by any 3rd party company as long as they don't copy the text verbatim. If it's not IP, it doesn't have to be in the SRD to be usable by 3rd parties, since it's game mechanics.
Why not Mongoose? I know they have retreated a bit from d20, but they have the capacity to return any time, and probably do it faster than others and be distributed in the book trade.
Because Mongoose has a fairly bad reputation because of their bad track record with early d20 releases. I, for one, would be very hesitant to purchase a Mongoose-produced D&D substitute.
For the vast majority of gamers it would have zero impact. The non-WOTC D&D material has about zero presence in the minds of most gamers. A proprietory D&D would not change that in the slightest. The vast majority of gamers would either stay with the material they have or would move on to 4e. The fate of 3rd party publishers would not factor into their decisions in the slightest.
A lot of people would complain pretty loudly though.
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Between the loss of Dragon and Dungeon, and now the end of Dragonlance, things have reached a fever pitch in the (well-connected) D&D community. So then, let's ponder the worst-case scenario: what if 4E comes out, and doesn't use the OGL or anything like it, reverting to a totally closed-content game.
If 4e didn't use the OGL, but was substantially similar to 3.5e, nothing much would change. The third-party producers would continue to produce compatible material.
If 4e didn't use the OGL and was substantially different, the market would split, temporarily. The lion's share of gamers would follow WotC, while a minority of more vocal and hardcore gamers would stick with 3.5 and the OGL publishers. In time, however, the number of people playing this 'older' edition would dwindle, leaving 3.5e as dead as 3.0e is (which is to say, not gone, but definately a minority interest).
Other games that happen to be based on 3.x mechanics would go along on their merry way, largely unaffected by all of this, although the publishers may at some later point elect to move to a different system, to close the system, or whatever.
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(As far as the worst-case goes, I'm not considering D&D ceasing production altogether. Hasbro wouldn't sit on it unused; they'd sell it, and whoever bought it would want their money's worth, so there'd be more new material. I just don't see the death of D&D happening...at this point, anyway.)
I think that's a mistake. Hasbro are known for sitting on IP. Moreover, the D&D brand still has massive value, for licensing to video games, movies, TV shows, and so on. So, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them cancel the D&D game but refuse to license or sell it.
I for one hope that the various 3rd party publishers can stick together and keep producing for the OGL. If they produce quality products, I feel they can make it work. Companies like Paizo, Green Ronin, and Necromancer have the greatest chances of success IMHO, and I say more power to them.
I would be very hesitant to jump on the next edition bandwagon. Not just because of the financial investment required for a whole new library of books, and not just because of the learning curve of swithing my gaming group to a whole new set of rules (when they're fine with what we have now), but largely because of the tactics WOTC is taking to maintain control of the market. It just seems like they are moving towards stifling the market rather than trying to support and nurture it.
I think you may see the proverbial gloves come off. On both 'sides'. While nobody wants to mess with an 800 pound gorilla, I may take my chances if I have a tranquilizer gun.
Metaphors aside, what I mean is that it has seemed like many groups (publishers) have played nice with WotC. Nobody has produced a seperate experience table (that I know of). Nobody has produced seperate character generation steps. My understanding is that when WotC came and told PCGen that they were using infringing material, PCGen said, OK, we'll take that out. There might be a fight over that now. I wouldn't be surprised if things actually go to court.
I think Paizo is already challenging WotC. They're producing adventures. They are creating a setting (of sorts). By the sounds of it they will be producing monsters.
I think there's going to be stronger competition, but fewer competitors.
If I've stated things/events incorrectly above, please understand it was not my intent.
-cpd
It seems likely that someone is going to produce unofficial 4e material. From my understanding (IANAL), the case law looks pretty weak for WotC's side. In fact, the Microsoft antitrust cases would suggest that trying to restrict third parties from producing compatible copyrighted materials might even be restraint of trade. Certainly, previous cases involving strategy guides, knockoff board games, and the like suggest you cannot protect the concept of "hit points" in any meaningful way.
Plus, at this point, with the CRPG industry, a few years of the OGL, the LOTR movie and so forth, a LOT of stuff is now in the public currency and would be difficult to even trademark.
Hasbro and WotC definitely realize D&D is a "hobby industry" and they are never going to create the same kind of environment you have for trading cards, clix, and the like. The game is sold around the table. Trying to sell D&D without a solid fan base would be like trying to sell cricket bats in the Bronx.
Now, I could see more "Living" type leagues, tighter control of their settings, some new licensing scheme to replace d20 (more restrictive, but with more sweetheart deals), and so forth. Online campaign registration. Subscriptions to Complete type products online.
I remember when the Street Samurai catalog first came out, not to mention the novels, man was I in love.
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