layoffs?

[Wonka]

Originally Posted by Melba Toast

Anyway, the economic crisis is a bunch of b.s. It'll pass just as soon as the banks get their money. (I mean, honestly, do you really think the bank was just being stupid when they gave that $400,000 mortgage to the single mother of two based on her salary as a cashier at Walmart. They knew EXACTLY what they were doing!)

(emphasis mine)

Yes, yes I do. If you are implying they purposely gave out lending they knew was a bad idea, solely to get bail out money, all I have to say is wow. Just, wow. Because thats my interpretation of your post, This crisis is the worst the US has seen since the 1930s, and you are calling it B.S? Ok then! Im sorry if I have misunderstood you.

[justanobody]

The fact that banks got the money and not the people is the BS, because people laid off could be using the money, while the banks won't lend to people that have recently been laid off as they have no collateral the bank can steal claim should the loan not be repaid.

[The Little Raven]

Originally Posted by justanobody

The fact that banks got the money and not the people is the BS, because people laid off could be using the money, while the banks won't lend to people that have recently been laid off as they have no collateral the bank can steal claim should the loan not be repaid.

Indeed, but that is heading into politics, which we should be avoiding.

[justanobody]

Originally Posted by The Little Raven

Indeed, but that is heading into politics, which we should be avoiding.

noted.

[occam]

Originally Posted by Wulf Ratbane

CEO of the Year.

From the article:

As his Hollywood chutzpah shows, Goldner's aim is high: to turn Hasbro's top nameplates into global power brands that consumers can experience in any way and format at any time they want, including movies, video games and even a theme-park attraction.
...Goldner also added new positions and named Los Angeles-based executives to nurture and explore Hollywood relationships and opportunities.
...transforming it beyond a toymaker to an intellectual-property-owning powerhouse.

I've said this before: If Hasbro is looking for marketable intellectual property, they already have a veritable IP factory they're not taking full advantage of. Between MtG, Forgotten Realms, Eberron, Greyhawk, Dark Sun, even going back to Star Frontiers, maybe Gamma World, and much more, TSR/WotC has a nearly limitless supply of creative products ready to be exploited. Some of them are already the basis of very popular book lines. Done right, with proper respect for the source material, you could have a Marvel-sized goldmine of movie properties, too. (Probably best to leave the D&D name off the title, though; that's probably toxic after the first two efforts. )

And theme parks? How cool could a D&D theme park be? Just watch out for that roller coaster, you don't know where you might end up....

[Mistwell]

Originally Posted by Melba Toast

I don't know. I think a lot of businesses are using the "economic crisis" as an excuse to cut the fat.

Do you have anything to back that up other than your instincts? And if it is just your instincts, then what's your financial background that makes you feel your instincts are good on this topic?

I don't really think WotC have been, nor will they be, that adversely affected by a crisis that is primarily a concern to the financial industry, the luxury industry, housing and auto industries.

I just linked to the article showing that sales are down across the board for all retail stores. Seriously, you are in denial if you still think this is just an isolated financial crises. I can see thinking that a couple of months ago...but now? You'd have to be doing a really good job of ignoring all the new financial information coming out.

Role-playing has weathered 3 decades by appealing to a core demographic (young males) who, as a group, have never had much significant buying power. A lot of us have never even managed to hold down a steady job, nor do we particularly care if we lose the ones we have.

It hasn't been "young" males for a decade or so. It's mostly 30-somethings now buying things like supplements, not college students or younger. And that group that usually does the buying is the prime group getting hit hardest by the recession right now.

Anyway, the economic crisis is a bunch of b.s. It'll pass just as soon as the banks get their money. (I mean, honestly, do you really think the bank was just being stupid when they gave that $400,000 mortgage to the single mother of two based on her salary as a cashier at Walmart. They knew EXACTLY what they were doing!)

Wow. That is...not in line with reality I am seeing. In any way. It's not just banks. It was never just banks in fact (AIG is not a bank for example), and there is no question any more that this has spread to virtually every sector of the economy. Every single measure of economic health shows that. The entire body of evidence does not support your conclusion. If you have some article showing differently, I would love to see it.

[Mistwell]

Originally Posted by justanobody

The fact that banks got the money and not the people is the BS, because people laid off could be using the money, while the banks won't lend to people that have recently been laid off as they have no collateral the bank can steal claim should the loan not be repaid.

Banks did not "get" money. They got a loan.

[joethelawyer]

Originally Posted by Mistwell

It hasn't been "young" males for a decade or so. It's mostly 30-somethings now buying things like supplements, not college students or younger. And that group that usually does the buying is the prime group getting hit hardest by the recession right now.

do you have stats for that demographic breakdown?

[xechnao]

Originally Posted by Wonka

(emphasis mine)

Yes, yes I do. If you are implying they purposely gave out lending they knew was a bad idea, solely to get bail out money, all I have to say is wow. Just, wow. Because thats my interpretation of your post, This crisis is the worst the US has seen since the 1930s, and you are calling it B.S? Ok then! Im sorry if I have misunderstood you.

Either they gave out lending on purpose or they too stupid. Not only this but there are gobal institution that examine and name the status of companies (better not go to specifics) -they obviously lied. This happened for various reasons (we can say they are not as simplistic as some banks to get bailout money but it smells system corruption all over the place)
On a different note I also find it hard to believe the european banks did not figure this out and had so much faith in the system (oh these europeans (I am a european too btw).

[der_kluge]

Originally Posted by Mistwell

Last month, U.S. employers cut 533K jobs, the most in 34 years. The last time this many people were laid off in a single month, it was the Ford administration I believe. The U.S. is also in the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Given those facts, I think too many people are naively assuming these layoffs are not the result of the general economy. You can make up excuses out of anger like "poorly run" and "greedy" and "didn't prepare" and "does this every year". But realistically, the U.S. is in a serious economic crises that was unexpected (it started on a specific date - when Lehman Brothers went under). Economic recessions have a direct, fast impact on hobby industries as people cut back on their purchases (and people have cut way back on their purchases in general, and that is provable).

The primary cause of these layoffs, or at least the extent of these layoffs, is probably due to circumstances entirely beyond the control of WOTC, and that is the sudden financial crises and recession. And when that happens, companies have to lay people off or else fall into the red. Which is exactly what thousands of companies did last month, to an extent unseen in 34 years. It's not a coincidence that all those companies did the same thing as WOTC. They are reacting to a real, tangible economic crises.

That's all well and good, but the key fact that's missing here is how is WoTC's profitability? It's entirely possible that WoTC is making *more* money now - could it be possible that people, once they get laid off, decide to devote more time to gaming since they suddenly have free time? We simply do not know. I think you're giving WoTC far more credit than they deserve.

[Mistwell]

Originally Posted by joethelawyer

do you have stats for that demographic breakdown?

They come from some of the stuff the 3e guys were talking about with their survey. Much like the comic book industry, the Tabletop RPG industry has aged along with it's original audience. I believe you can find it here. And since they state that the players of the hobby are aging with it, and not being refreshed with younger players at the same rate as they used to, you can safely age that study even more now.

[Mistwell]

Originally Posted by der_kluge

That's all well and good, but the key fact that's missing here is how is WoTC's profitability?

All leaked information we have seen is that it is bad. Not nearly as good as planned.

It's entirely possible that WoTC is making *more* money now - could it be possible that people, once they get laid off, decide to devote more time to gaming since they suddenly have free time? We simply do not know. I think you're giving WoTC far more credit than they deserve.

No I do not think it is likely that people who are laid off spend more of their dwindling savings on hobby products. History does not support that conclusion. None of the stats support that conclusion for similar industries. Pick an entertainment-type company of any sort, look at their published numbers since Layman brothers went under, and you will find they are all down.

I am not saying it's some genius well laid scheme to lay people off...I am saying it's an entirely normal reaction being done by virtually every major company right now in the U.S.. What "credit" do you think I am giving them?

[Mark]

Originally Posted by Mistwell

Much like the comic book industry, the RPG industry has aged along with it's original audience.

Fifty years from now someone will retire into a nursing home named Saint Mononoke.

[Henry]

Next business venture for George Lucas -- he starts a nationwide chain of retirement homes, called Skywalker Ranch, where residents have scheduled D&D days, they show Star Wars movies (only the first trilogy, of course, no use upsetting the residents!) and other genre stuff for movie night, and all the dessert cups are shaped like little R2-D2's or bowls with Spider-Man or Captain America designs in the bottoms...

[Dannyalcatraz]

Given the success of the Star Trek themed casino (that recently closed), themed resorts (like the Ice Hotel) and other pop-culture trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see communities (retirement; any age but gated; resorts, etc.) based on pop cultural icons- be they books, comics, cartoons or what have you- springing up.

Probably in Japan first, THEN the USA.

One thing is for sure, I hope I don't wind up retiring to either an X-Files or Bubba Ho-Tep community...

[TheGM]

Originally Posted by Mistwell

No I do not think it is likely that people who are laid off spend more of their dwindling savings on hobby products. History does not support that conclusion. None of the stats support that conclusion for similar industries. Pick an entertainment-type company of any sort, look at their published numbers since Layman brothers went under, and you will find they are all down.

Don't want to sidetrack too much, but I spoke to a terrain developer who told me people do indeed spend more on hobbies - they don't buy that car, house, or $3000 dollar computer, they don't spend 5 bucks a drink in the bar, instead they stay home and buy his products. He says that every economic downturn since he started his business has resulted in increased sales.

Of course, the "I don't want to sidetrack..." part is because he's one business and not an industry-wide trend, but it was an interesting conversation when I had it.

I think how far down has a lot to do with how well they satisfy customer needs too - the mainstream media starting layoffs already? Not a surprise to me. WoTC - even though I'm not a 4E fan? Surprise to me.

Don.

[firesnakearies]

Originally Posted by Henry

Next business venture for George Lucas -- he starts a nationwide chain of retirement homes, called Skywalker Ranch, where residents have scheduled D&D days, they show Star Wars movies (only the first trilogy, of course, no use upsetting the residents!) and other genre stuff for movie night, and all the dessert cups are shaped like little R2-D2's or bowls with Spider-Man or Captain America designs in the bottoms...

Dude, I'd go live there NOW.

[Wulf Ratbane]

Originally Posted by Henry

Next business venture for George Lucas -- he starts a nationwide chain of retirement homes, called Skywalker Ranch...

I'm going to trust my golden years to the man who sold out my childhood memories? I don't think so.

Not unless you want me to sit there in my room all day, screaming at the nurses, "HAN SHOT FIRST!"

[mshea]

I can't believe I was too busy looking up the rules on Stinking Cloud to read about this.

This is very sad news. Dave Noonan was a sort of hero of mine when I started playing again. He's been the voice of D&D to me through the Podcasts and I loved his articles about the Dungeon Delve format that he posted. It changed how I played D&D.

When I saw the layout of 4th edition products, I saw his work in it. I saw how much easier to use the D&D adventures are. I saw the constant shift to making sure that things work well at the table first.

I think Dave had a big influence over 4e's philosophy and I think the game overall is much better for it. He had a lot of philosophies about usability that I hope are not lost.

I also hope to see his work again elsewhere.

I don't know the others very well but personally speaking, I think a focus on "digital initiatives" is a mistake for Wizards. A character generator, online compendium, Dragon, and Dungeon are fine. The Character Portrait Generator is a complete waste of time and money. I couldn't care less for a WoW / EQ2 character generator. I also think the digital game table is going to take far more work than it will be worth. Wizards should keep their team small and build the best paper products in the industry. They should outsource required electronic components (like the Creator) and license their brand to companies that have experience building things like the game table (a NWN online component or the like).

Spreading yourself too thin can be a major problem. I'd much rather have seen them dump the digital stuff and keep guys like Dave. Firing Dave was a mistake.

Dave, I'm hoping you manage to get through the 19 pages of posts to read this. You made the game better for me and for my group. We're happier people because of your work. I hope you stay in the industry and keep putting out the quality we've sen before.

Thank you.

[phloog]

Originally Posted by xechnao

So who has the responsability for the financial mess and the hit to the economy? Have they at the very, very least been punished? Not to speak about the lawyers they can afford these golden guys.

An economy of any kind is an extremely complex system. I don't want to devolve into politics, either...but I think it's poor practice to believe that there has to be blame assigned when economies fall, or praise when they do well.

Actual blame normally can't be assigned because too many things are involved, and the human need to point fingers and find the enemy makes us very susceptible to plays on those needs - if someone can convincingly point a finger, they can get us to do what they want.