layoffs?

[xechnao]

Originally Posted by phloog

An economy of any kind is an extremely complex system. I don't want to devolve into politics, either...but I think it's poor practice to believe that there has to be blame assigned when economies fall, or praise when they do well.

Actual blame normally can't be assigned because too many things are involved, and the human need to point fingers and find the enemy makes us very susceptible to plays on those needs - if someone can convincingly point a finger, they can get us to do what they want.

I agree with what you are saying 100%. But then when I was talking about the problems of the current system of economy that have been leading to the current results people justified the system by the existance of the balancing forces of responsability. Well I just asked them to show me in practice. Claro?

[Dannyalcatraz]

Originally Posted by Dannyalcatraz

Given the success of the Star Trek themed casino (that recently closed), themed resorts (like the Ice Hotel) and other pop-culture trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see communities (retirement; any age but gated; resorts, etc.) based on pop cultural icons- be they books, comics, cartoons or what have you- springing up.

Just to share and expand on this, Michael Marshall Smith's "What you make it" a short story from 1999, is set in a Disney-esque retirement village.

[Mistwell]

Bloomberg just reported today that "Almost all businesses are in survival mode, and they’re slashing payrolls and investments just to conserve cash...We’re in store for some big job losses".

Why is it some folks here think that WOTC is immune as a hobby company from that "almost all businesses" and their layoffs were primarily similar to all prior layoffs and have nothing really to do with the immediate chaos set into motion relatively recently that is hitting all those other businesses?

I think it's fair to debate the various causes of these layoffs, and what percentage of the bad economy contributed to the layoffs as opposed to what percentage was normal staged layoffs. But, I don't understand folks who think the bad economy isn't a major contributing factor.

You may right (I am not simply dismissing the "normal layoffs are the only primary cause" concept outright), but I am having trouble seeing the evidence there. If someone could post some links showing that overall hobby-type or entertainment-type companies have done well this last quarter relative to the rest of the economy, that might help. Or if anyone has anything showing WOTC profits themselves are up this prior quarter, that would help even more. But without that sort of stuff, why would people conclude that the bad economy is not a major contributing factor to this?

[Dannyalcatraz]

When I was studying for my econ degree (many, many moons ago), we looked at the flexibility of demand for various luxury goods, though not RPG products in particular.

Luxuries that had highly flexible demand were things like jewelry, fine dining, a new car, and so forth. They were all either high in initial cost and/or low in long-term value.

Items that had good long term value tended to be more "recession-proof"- and these were things like books and family entertainment (at the time, cards, boardgames, bowling leagues, sports participation fees)*. Though I have no hard data, I would imagine that RPGs would have a similar demand flexibility to such items.

* Oddly, for the poor, seeing movies in theaters was in this class- they were seen as inexpensive family entertainment and one source of air conditioned fun for families without quality AC. Since their initial consumption levels were low (relative to the general public), there was little change in their pattern as prices rose.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by Dannyalcatraz

I would imagine that RPGs would have a similar demand flexibility to such items.

The problem might lie in the change in the business model whereby the rules are spread out over many more books, thus decreasing the perceived longterm value, coupled with the subscription-based support that requires and additional continuous cost. Gone are the days of an up-front core book cash layout coupled with tons of free online support with optional tied-in supplements for those who wish to go above and beyond the core.

[Dannyalcatraz]

True, but the Core books would have relatively stable demand over time- something that seems to hold up according to the various people who post sales data on such things.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by Dannyalcatraz

True, but the Core books would have relatively stable demand over time- something that seems to hold up according to the various people who post sales data on such things.

Maybe if core books came out only once every three to four years but that's no longer the model now that yearly core books are planned, with a cost of $35 a pop for three ($75 each for three if you want the deluxe editions).

[joethelawyer]

Originally Posted by Dannyalcatraz

When I was studying for my econ degree (many, many moons ago), we looked at the flexibility of demand for various luxury goods, though not RPG products in particular.

Luxuries that had highly flexible demand were things like jewelry, fine dining, a new car, and so forth. They were all either high in initial cost and/or low in long-term value.

Items that had good long term value tended to be more "recession-proof"- and these were things like books and family entertainment (at the time, cards, boardgames, bowling leagues, sports participation fees)*. Though I have no hard data, I would imagine that RPGs would have a similar demand flexibility to such items.

* Oddly, for the poor, seeing movies in theaters was in this class- they were seen as inexpensive family entertainment and one source of air conditioned fun for families without quality AC. Since their initial consumption levels were low (relative to the general public), there was little change in their pattern as prices rose.

I think the bottom line is that most rpg'ers of any edition who have been playing for a while and like their system can play indefinitely with that system with no more purchases required, ever. Add the advent of programs that enable illegal filesharing, and one could have a megalibrary of enough supplemental material to last 13 lifetime, in just a single weekend of downloading.

As times get tougher, more people will ikely turn to that avenue, in effect socializing gaming, having the rich pay for the poor's gaming hobby.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by joethelawyer

Add the advent of programs that enable illegal filesharing, and one could have a megalibrary of enough supplemental material to last 13 lifetime, in just a single weekend of downloading.

People who take part in that sort of activity can never be considered as those who would have been part of a revenue stream. There are some who illegally download and then also legitamately purchase some of what they download illegally but those people are already accounted for in accounts of the regular revenue stream. Trying to factor in issues of piracy into any discussion of economics is impossible due to the lack of hard data. I advise leaving that part of the discussion aside.

[benichov]

Dave,

No fun losing a job - especially this close to the holidays. I miss you on the podcast and I really hope you are keeping your spirits up.

Warmly,

Boris

[joethelawyer]

Originally Posted by Mark

People who take part in that sort of activity can never be considered as those who would have been part of a revenue stream. There are some who illegally download and then also legitamately purchase some of what they download illegally but those people are already accounted for in accounts of the regular revenue stream. Trying to factor in issues of piracy into any discussion of economics is impossible due to the lack of hard data. I advise leaving that part of the discussion aside.

true, but they may be people who USED TO be part of revenue stream calculations.

Now they just cant afford it and download for free.

That would tend to make the hobby as a whole more recession-proof, in that players wuld be available and it wouldn't die off due to lack of players. Whether the 3pp's can afford to survive is another matter. They would have to scale back output, likely, to fewer products which would likely sell best. The most bang for the limited production cost bucks.

[Dannyalcatraz]

Originally Posted by Mark

People who take part in that sort of activity can never be considered as those who would have been part of a revenue stream. There are some who illegally download and then also legitamately purchase some of what they download illegally but those people are already accounted for in accounts of the regular revenue stream. Trying to factor in issues of piracy into any discussion of economics is impossible due to the lack of hard data. I advise leaving that part of the discussion aside.

Actually, they are part of the revenue stream, in the form of a drain on a company's bottom line. There are formulae for such calculations.

As for hard data, it exists*, but its mostly in the hands of the investigating agencies (FBI, INTERPOL), the IP holders & their professional organizations (RIAA), and in certain reports given to some organizations (like speeches & lectures to Copyright lawyers getting their CLE ). It can be had, but you may have to pay for it.

Some polls and investigative reports have also shown interesting data regarding the behavior of downloaders- whether they'll subsequently purchase legal copies of the IP they acquired illegally (under 50%); whether a pirate's ties to organized crime or terrorism matter to those who get their IP from them (for about 20%, it doesn't). Interesting stuff.

* The data exists mainly for books, albums, computer programs and certain games- mainly board games. However, AFAIK, none exists specifically for RPG games.

[justanobody]

D&D Podcast #30

Originally Posted by Bart Carroll D&D podcast producer

As of Tuesday December 2nd there was a reorganization here at Wizards of the Coast, the details behind which you can largely read about in Bill Slavesik's latest Ampersand column going up on Friday ~mumble mumble~ (couldn't hear it at full volume). Sadly Dave Noonan was affected by this reogranization.

~snip~

Julia Martin also affected by the reorganization. She was a veteran of D&D since before Wizards of the Coast, having worked the game back at Lake Geneva back at TSR.

I guess there is no one left except Bill from TSR at WotC, and find it funny that the info you can find about the reorganization is only for subscribers....

I will leave the rest of the podcast for its own thread and leave this hear about the layoffs.

Is Scott Rouse no longer the Brand Manager?

Kerin Chase(SP) Brand Manager on D&D

[MadMaxim]

I also just listened to the podcast and it was confirmed that Dave and Julia were affected by the re-organization. I feel sorry for all of the people who lost their job at Wizards of the Coast. I hope that you all find new employment some other place and I wish you all the best of luck

I've been reading all the pages so far (this is a VERY long thread to keep track of) and it seems speculation concerning the layoffs is based either around Wizards' usual cuts around this time of year or the current financial crisis (or a combination thereof). It's weird but, of course, there has to some legitimate reason for Wizards to let this many people go. I'm not saying it's sensible or fair, but there has to be a reason that we're not going to ever really know about...

[Mark]

Originally Posted by joethelawyer

true, but they may be people who USED TO be part of revenue stream calculations.

Now they just cant afford it and download for free.

Originally Posted by Dannyalcatraz

Actually, they are part of the revenue stream, in the form of a drain on a company's bottom line. There are formulae for such calculations.

As for hard data, it exists*

My point being, which I think you guys are helping to make, is that there seems to be no actual correlation between illegal downloading and sales in that there no way to claim they would have made purchases of things they download. It might be that they would have, but the proof just isn't there if they don't actually do so. I'm not proponent of illegal DLing, so don't get me wrong, but I am under no illusion that piracy has little to do with sales, one way or another.

[Mokona]

Originally Posted by xechnao

Nope. But many people work hard. Not everyone has the same benefits. This makes certain people more, some times much more privileged that others. This situation draws bad feelings and I am sure you can understand it.

It is called jealousy!

"Understand" can mean "to accept sympathetically". I am not sympathetic to people who haven't yet reached the highest levels of success being jealous of CEOs.

Originally Posted by Melba Toast

Creatives are the people who innovate, the people who find new solutions. Historically, it has been the creative that has driven the economy as society's entrepreneurs and artisans. Unfortunately, creatives today rarely have the business acumen or the financial foundation to be self-employed or maintain control of their product. So they turn ownership over to exploiters, the businessman.

There is no rule that says businessman are not also creative. In fact, anyone who has ever worked for a good manager or leader knows that top positions can drive massive positive change in an organization. Strategic vision is not necessarily the domain of line-level employees but it does drive corporate success.

Sometimes it is the lower levels of a company that drive stagnation and failure such as paying excess union employees to sit around and do nothing all day.

Originally Posted by firesnakearies

Call me a cynic, but I don't think there's any realistic push in the upper echelons of our economic/social system to "do less wrong", but just to "hide it better".

Yes, you're a cynic. Most people try to be honest and assume others will do so as well. This fact allows the dishonest to succeed because honest people aren't constantly suspicious of everyone they meet. Enron had some dishonest people, perhaps including the CEO, but it also had thousands of honest employees who never caught on to the problems.

[Dannyalcatraz]

My point being, which I think you guys are helping to make, is that there seems to be no actual correlation between illegal downloading and sales in that there no way to claim they would have made purchases of things they download.

Actually, I'm saying that

1) there are formulae that exist to help businesses calculate lost sales due to various forms of IP theft- it helps them do their accounting. As for their correlation to reality, they tend to be on the conservative side- actual losses when discovered by raids (both physical and electronic) tend to be a bit higher.

Not all pirates offer stolen IP for free. Some sell it at "deep discounts" to fund criminal or terrorist activities. An artist of my acquaintance saw a Russian Mob website outsell legitimate purchases their self-released first recording 4-1. It cost them thousands of dollars. Some Chinese manufacturers have been caught running their factories during scheduled down time to release 100% perfect copies of products they're licensed to produced...both Western and Chinese, btw.

and

2) there are several studies (privately funded and gov't) that show correlations between drops in sales in a given area and the ease of piracy within that area. Most notable were those studies that showed marked declines in music sales around universities as PC and mainframe speeds increased, and previous studies showing similar declines in sales of printed material in areas served by high-speed, high quality copy centers (Kinkos, Alphagraphics, and even some institutional copy centers). The latter data was significant in lawsuits that engendered the current reluctance of some of those businesses to copy even things we know we're allowed to copy (under express language dealing with the product or Fair Use Doctrine).

[Banshee16]

Sorry to hear about the layoffs.....particularly before Christmas, they're no fun. I'm experiencing it this year for the first time myself, so I can empathize.

Take a deep breath, try to enjoy the holidays, and just remember that as long as you and your family are healthy, everything else can be solved.

Banshee

[Mark]

Originally Posted by Dannyalcatraz

there are several studies (privately funded and gov't) (. . .) similar declines in sales of printed material in areas served by high-speed, high quality copy centers (Kinkos, Alphagraphics, and even some institutional copy centers). The latter data was significant in lawsuits that engendered the current reluctance of some of those businesses to copy even things we know we're allowed to copy (under express language dealing with the product or Fair Use Doctrine).

When you are back in the office (so to speak), I'd love more details or links where to get more details specifically on this particular matter. Thanks.

[justanobody]

I wonder if it has more to do with piracy or just the simple fact that technology today is making it still cheaper for high quality print to be done at home rather than pay for something printed at a "professional" place like Kinkos (profesional? them? ) that would cost more than to buy it printed and bound from a bookstore from an actual publishing house.

Sounds a lot about the milkman complaining when grocery stores started selling milk and people could go get it themselves without needing the milkman anymore.

Sometimes a service is just no longer needed like the milkman or the "copy shop".