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Thank you Mr. Goodman. I really do appreciate all your insight.
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Though he claims the 4e base is several orders of magnitude larger than the 3.x base, which, well, I don't believe. There was still some spin going on, and a number of things from his personal experience that don't mesh with mine (internet negativity on 4e not being present in game stores, etc).
__________________ "I can just see the 4e adventure anthology "Tale from the Limited Staircase"." - Ken Marable
I think that's a casually phrased sentence, not one he intends to be read as a specific statement of mathematical fact. I suspect that he's also equating "still play 3e" with "still play 3e and still regularly or semi-regularly purchase 3e products." I would not be surprised if the purchasing market for 4e were several orders of magnitude larger for the purchasing market of 3e. Its only anecdotal, but I've met a fair amount of 3e fans who are sticking with 3e because they feel like they already have all the gaming material they need, and don't see the point in buying more.
Yeah, I'm kinda having a hard time believingthat 4e is several orders of maganitude bigger than 3.x was. That seems to be a stretch without some real numbers.
That and the neagtivity on the net, and not the game store- that MIGHT be because those of us that arent going 4e stop going to game stores since they have nothing to offer us anymore? So obviously you arent going to get ANY bad feedback on 4e from folks that arent there....I mean, you cant get a contrary opinion of foks that arent at the shop anymore....
(not that the ones near me ever in teh last 5-10 years had anything to offer, wargaming or RPG's, but thats another story).
Honestly his "going to gamestores because their fun" when teh example that the minis cheaper at the book store, and because they have a sea of product to look at- I can shop even better in my slippers in the confort of my computer. Doesnt quite wash.
Overall better than the first one.
Last edited by carmachu; 13th July 2009 at 04:26 PM..
Yeah, I'm kinda having a hard time believingthat 4e is several orders of maganitude bigger than 3.x was. That seems to be a stretch without some real numbers.
I am pretty sure he is talking about how the numbers are now, not what they were. Especially since he notes that the 2000/2001 figures are way beyond everything after that, including the 2008/2009 figures for 4E.
Thoughts of the Arch Chancellor - My weblog on EN World - containing game related material, like: house rules, design theories, reviews, play reports, adventure ideas
Secret Member of <Think we would just hide our secret with a spoiler tag, eh?>
Obviously there's a huge split in gamestore customers. My own group plays both but there's plenty of groups that won't touch the new edition for whatever reasons.
Regarding sales, he's talking about current 3.XE vs. 4E.
Quote:
Over the past several years, as many of the d20 publishers with brand recognition from the 2000-2001 period slowly went extinct, I offered to buy their companies and/or brands, solely because those brands would have value again when 4E relaunched. Without “kissing and telling,” I can tell you that there were several such deals under negotiation, and in every case the owners valued their companies based on their 2000-2001 sales figures, not a more reasonable time period. As a result, I considered the asking prices too high, and none of these deals went through. One of the companies simply disappeared, another transferred its IP then faded away, and a third still “exists” but hasn’t released a product in years.
Mark, it seems obvious (to me at least) that the third company he is talking about is Necromancer Games.
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It's interesting that, if that's the case, this interview comes out a month before Gencon. Isn't that where Paizo big Pathfinder push should be and isn't Necro coming out with supporting products for PF?
I am pretty sure he is talking about how the numbers are now, not what they were. Especially since he notes that the 2000/2001 figures are way beyond everything after that, including the 2008/2009 figures for 4E.
See, that makes much more sense when you add the word "now" to it.
Thoughts of the Arch Chancellor - My weblog on EN World - containing game related material, like: house rules, design theories, reviews, play reports, adventure ideas
Secret Member of <Think we would just hide our secret with a spoiler tag, eh?>
ultimately the order of magnitude argument is one that would probably be doubted by avid 3.5 fans/4e unfans even if he spelled it out to the penny. This should give you an idea of my skepticism towards their skepticism.
Regardless, the point of it being specifically purchasing highlights an important point: your relevance as a D&D player to companies making this stuff is based on how willing you are to buy stuff. If you are already satisfied with your current collection, you have written yourself out of the equation of relevance. Still, in theory this shouldn't matter because, after all, you're satisfied with your collection. Mr. Goodman is, if nothing else, a very savvy business man and has rightly detected the correlation between internet user posts and resulting purchases/non-purchases (ie: nearly unrelated).
As to the gamestore vs. bookstore argument. I've done both. My FLGS is sufficiently lacking in L that I give them the time i walk in the door to have the product, otherwise i go to B&N and get 20% off hardbacks. For me, I honestly enjoy the atmosphere and options I have available at B&N too so it's not abhorrent for me to throw money at them either. But I still try to go with the FLGS first. Why? Because they take the time to create a friendly environment, give local con organizers a place to find and pomote to new people, and host things like Free RPG-day and WWGDs. To me, the premium I might pay compared to amazon is paying for these otherwise free services, and the gamestore owner probably understands this too, and enjoys gaming enough that he's willing to risk that kids might buy their minis, boardgames, or D&D books online but bring them to use at his store anyway. For me, I spend enough time agonizing over things like rent for my apartment with crappy maintenence people, getting gouged by mechanics because i'm not a grease monkey who knows better, and paying out the nose to insurance companies that will ultimately try to shrug me off when i finally need money. I find precious solace in the idea that maybe, just maybe, spending that extra 5 bucks on a D&D product helps create an environment that genuinely brings me joy.
See thats not the impression I got reading it the first time through.
But he's speaking about his own company's sales, and he's speaking in present tense. And he talks about people who "still" play 3e. You don't need the word "now" to make it clear that he's not talking about the year 2001.
Regardless, the point of it being specifically purchasing highlights an important point: your relevance as a D&D player to companies making this stuff is based on how willing you are to buy stuff. If you are already satisfied with your current collection, you have written yourself out of the equation of relevance. Still, in theory this shouldn't matter because, after all, you're satisfied with your collection. Mr. Goodman is, if nothing else, a very savvy business man and has rightly detected the correlation between internet user posts and resulting purchases/non-purchases (ie: nearly unrelated).
unless of course there are still items I'm looking for or buying in the 3.x era. Or folks are still buying minis. Or other items a game store may carry.
Am I relevant to Goodman anymore as a 4e buyer? No. However, am I/could I be to a game store? yes.
An interesting read. However, I have problems with a couple parts of the interview:
Quote:
Take the market for 1E and add a couple zeroes to get to the people who still play 3E, then add several more zeroes and you’re up to the 4E market.
That is a bit imprecise, because of the mixing of "market" and "people who still play". Apples and oranges.
I think that this is a bit of spin:
Quote:
Jones: Why is 4e doing well? What is it about 4e itself that is selling well?
Goodman: Good question. You can answer this question in a thousand different ways, depending on your perspective as an active fan, a grognard, a retailer, a publisher, a creator, or someone else entirely. I can relate something of my own experience as well as that of many retailers I’ve spoken to, which is that 4E truly seems to be reaching a new audience.
Since I don't see anywhere established in the article that '4e is doing well'. That is such a strong statement that placing it as a presumption in a question is very poor form. In the current form, I see spin.
The point about 4E reaching new audiences, through, that is interesting, and would be nice to see qualified.
Earlier he does say:
Quote:
The main thrust of my post concerned sales of D&D 4E product. Speaking as a 4E licensee, I’m satisfied with the sales of my 4E products, and I wanted to share that fact. That’s the main point.
But that's not quite the same.
Quote:
This was the time when most of the current third party publishers were established, and for many of them their frame of reference is colored by the staggering sales numbers of that period.
I find the term "staggering" to be worrisome. That inserts a bias into any comparison against 3E sales.
Quote:
If online sales have any impact on game sales, I see it in these marginal, low-volume accessory outlets.
I can't find myself to agree with this. I have been figuring that the DDI is expected to have some impact on the WotC 4E bottom line more than 10%. i would be interested to see the overall percentage.
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