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Exactly! Makes you really wonder where he gets some of the assumptions his argument relies on from. I hear you can get those sorts of rates in main stream magazine article writing.
Maybe he's considering the "even poor fiction" earning $1.00 per word market to be the Oprah's Book Club market. I'd consider that style of 'misery fiction pretending to be deep and thoughtful' market that pays very well for poor fiction.
Wonder how many bucks per word somebody like a Stephen King, John Grisham, or Dan Brown would make for writing.
The RPG industry has some unusual competition most things don't have to deal with:
1. A newly published book must compete against the secondary market for older books. RPG players tend to be the collecting sort who never throw anything away, and older RPG books are fairly easy to find at a discount(for the most part), particularly for people who have heard of eBay.
2. A newly published book must compete with doing it yourself. This is particularly true of system expansions, campaign settings, and adventures.
3. A newly published book must compete against hobbyist publishers who produce more for the love of the game than making money.
Wonder how many bucks per word somebody like a Stephen King, John Grisham, or Dan Brown would make for writing.
He aint one of those you mention, but still a writer. J.J Abrams made a $60 million deal with Warner Bros. TV and Paramount Pictures in 2006 for his writing. Not too shaby, no matter the amount of words
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At this point, it may be beating a dead horse to continue to point out errors within the original blog post -- but here's another:
"Now, if he goes with print on demand, he has no worries about inventory (well, mostly… even with print-on-demand you need to keep a little inventory, as gamers these days do not go for the four to six week ship time that would be required if you did true print-on-demand). However, print on demand is more expensive per unit, with little or no discount for more units, so your gross margin per unit is even less… which means you still have to cut the costs of your other inputs.
And don’t get me started on Lulu, where the printing cost per unit is astronomical!"
Again, it appears that he has no idea of the current facts of the market.
The cost per unit at Lulu is quite high -- he's right about that. Far too high for use within traditional distribution, where the publisher is only going to see 35-40% of the MSRP. For direct-to-consumer, though, it's just fine -- and makes you more than you'd see through traditional distribution.
But, aside from that issue:
"Four to six weeks ship time that would be required"??? Buh? To use Lulu as an example -- production takes 2 to 5 business days, with shipping occuring immediately afterward. Even if you take the slowest shipping option available, you'd see your book in two weeks, not four to six. And most shipping methods would have it to you within a week to a week and half at most.
"Little or no discount for more units" -- also not true. Again, using Lulu as an example -- discounts start at 25 copies for softcover, and 10 copies for hardcover. Just as an example (from my own records) -- on a 192 page softcover supplement, a 25 copy order gives me a 25% discount, 100 copies gives me a 30% discount, 250 copies a 41% discount, and even more from there.
So, it's more than evident that he has no real understanding of the current state of print-on-demand. The things he's complaining about haven't really been a factor for 2 to 3 years or more.
The RPG industry has some unusual competition most things don't have to deal with:
1. A newly published book must compete against the secondary market for older books.
How much is this different than, say, the college/university textbook business (especially for freshman year textbooks)? Within a few weeks after the release of a new textbook, the secondary market for used copies is already in effect. After awhile, the secondary market for used copies starts to "cannibalize" the market for new copies. These days it can be as soon as a year or so after the release date. It doesn't help that university bookstores are also in the business of selling used textbooks.
To combat this problem, typically what the textbook publishers do is release a new edition every few years, to destroy the secondary market for the previous editions. These days for some very popular freshman college/university textbooks, new editions are pumped out as fast as every 3 years.
Last edited by ggroy; 15th July 2009 at 11:48 PM..
How much is this different than, say, the college/university textbook business (especially for freshman year textbooks)? Within a few weeks after the release of a new textbook, the secondary market for used copies is already in effect. After awhile, the secondary market for used copies starts to "cannibalize" the market for new copies. These days it can be as soon as a year or so after the release date. It doesn't help that university bookstores are also in the business of selling used textbooks.
To combat this problem, typically what the textbook publishers do is release a new edition every few years, to destroy the secondary market for the previous editions. These days for some very popular freshman college/university textbooks, new editions are pumped out as fast as every 3 years.
The difference is that your college class might require you to use the new edition, while there is no such requirement in the RPG world outside of peer pressure from those you game with.
I don't think the RPG market cannibalizes the market for new copies to the extent that it happens with college textbooks, but I do think the availbility and price of older books does limit what you can charge for a new book. I think one of the reasons retro-clones have a hard time establishing themselves is that you can pick up the core books for AD&D 1E or 2E for $10-15 in good shape.
How much is this different than, say, the college/university textbook business (especially for freshman year textbooks)?
Because the Teacher is supplied the the Teacher's Book through the school since the School probably gets a kickback on the new books. The student does not get the chance to say to the teacher, do we need to use a new edition?
Because the Teacher is supplied the the Teacher's Book through the school since the School probably gets a kickback on the new books. The student does not get the chance to say to the teacher, do we need to use a new edition?
If it's anything like the University I'm at the school doesn't get a kickback on the books. I get to select the course textbook for my classes and the department secretary lets the bookstore know what they should order for the students to buy. The students don't *need* to buy the textbooks there though, and they can get them from another store, 2nd hand, Amazon, Ebay, etc.
Quite often the publishers/distributors will send me a copy of their textbooks to evaluate hoping that I'll pick their book for the textbook for my class.
Maybe it's different for other schools/profs... but my experience is that there's no kickback to the school / teacher on new books.
From the article [Note: I maintain that we are entering an economic dislocation the likes of which has not been seen since the Roman Crisis of the Third Century.]
And he's worrying about RPGs?
I'm reminded of the old George Carlin joke, "it seems the weather radar has picked up a flock of Russian ICBMs, so I wouldn't worry about the thundershowers."
__________________ Member of Grognards for 4th Edition
James Mishler's rant about depression style economics is laughable.
Every time there's a recession or some economic hiccups, all kinds of permabears talk about the "next great depression" like a chicken little. After so many years of seeing crap like this, it becomes like the "boy who cried wolf".
In the 21 years since then, I've heard every single year that this industry was on the cusp of failure. I don't think the assertion is any truer now than it was 21 years ago.
__________________ Joshua J. Frost
Events Manager
Paizo Publishing®, LLC
In the 21 years since then, I've heard every single year that this industry was on the cusp of failure. I don't think the assertion is any truer now than it was 21 years ago.
It's nothing more than cannon fodder for rpg industry "armchair pundits" and other "monday morning quarterbackers". Though it is amusing to speculate to wild extremes.
In the business consulting world, this type of extreme "armchair punditry" is better known as "scenario planning".
Wonder how many bucks per word somebody like a Stephen King, John Grisham, or Dan Brown would make for writing.
For what it's worth, Stephen King talked at my university some years back and was asked something along these lines. His only answer was that if he were to stop writing entirely, he would still be pulling in about $50 million a year.
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All I can say is the 4e core books cost me slightly more than the 1e core books did when I purchased them back in the mid 1980s, in currency unadjusted for inflation, or for the fact I, along with a big chuck of the graying RPG market, have a lot more disposable income now than we did as adolescents. That's not a sustainable pricing model.
I realize you're quoting the author's logic, which is largely sound, and applying it to the core books, but my take from a marketing perspective would be that WotC (and even TSR back in the day) is applying the "Give away the razor, sell the blades" model that Gillette has applied to their razors for about a century. Make the core products hyper-affordable (or even a loss leader like the XBox is) and make the money off of the ancillary products (the blades for a razor, the modules/accessories for d&d, and the games for XBox).
Not saying it's right or wrong of them to assume that - just saying I think that's what's at work here.
1. From here on out, every RPG book must have a "tastefully" scantily clad woman on the cover. Perhaps getting actual pictures of celebrities dressed up in fantasy constumes might help.
2. A certain portion of each book will be dedicated to advertising. Such adverstising would cater to the average gamer, everything from miniatures to deodorant. Coupons could be included.
3. Maybe each book could contain a centerfold of the person on the cover.
4. Along with tips and advice of performing well at table, relationship advice could also be included. "10 ways to tell if that gamer girl is into you!" Or "Only gamer chick at the FLGS? Try these 7 things to WoW them!"
5. Gaming books releases should be monthly (they practically are now anyway).
6. Perhaps the teen demographic could be reached with books that contain articles for them. "Miley Cyrus: D&D or not D&D?" "Parents think you worship Satan? 10 ways to prove them wrong!"
7. All RPG books can repeat the same topic every 2-3 years or so. (Wait minute...they almost do that already...)
----
Even though I'm not really being serious, upon closer consideration these ideas might actually work...
__________________ "Farewell, Friend. I was a thousand times more evil than thou!"
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All I can say is the 4e core books cost me slightly more than the 1e core books did when I purchased them back in the mid 1980s, in currency unadjusted for inflation
There's also the possibility that the 1E AD&D core books may have been way "overpriced" back in the day, compared to today's 4E D&D core books.
Last edited by ggroy; 16th July 2009 at 04:51 AM..
Well, that's certainly a rant. He ends up sounding like a 3E/OGL fanboy upset that the current gaming market doesn't make it easy(or perhaps even possible) to turn a profit producing 3E/OGL games. That seems to be what he wants to do, as he has shown a clear disdain for 4E.
Edit: addition
He also seems to equate his take on the "adventure game" industry as the same as the industry as a whole. We've been a community since 1974, and if one thing can be said its that D&D always wins. Before the OGL, we had alternative systems and the indie gaming movement. The OGL marginalized both of those, with the exception of White Wolf. The release of 3.5E and WotC's decision to stop supporting the OGL community during 3E marginalized the OGL community, and the release of 4E was just the final nail in the coffin. The "alternative to D&D" section of the RPG community is at a low ebb thanks to external factors, and is being currently dominated by previous editions of D&D of all things and not new products. I believe there is a demand for alternatives to D&D, and those alternatives will turn up at some point, probably being something new we haven't seen before.
Last edited by thecasualoblivion; 16th July 2009 at 06:05 AM..
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