4E Showing the Math: Proving that 4es Skill Challenge system is broken (math heavy)
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    Showing the Math: Proving that 4es Skill Challenge system is broken (math heavy)

    Showing the Math: Proving that 4es Skill Challenge system is broken.
    In this thread: http://www.enworld.org/showthread.ph...99#post4278599

    I have created a new skill challenge system to try and correct the problems with the existing one. I was kindly asked to prove that the original system is flawed, and I am happy to do so.

    This thread is very math heavy. I assume you are proficient with basic probability and have the ability to understand combinations.

    The Scenario: We will use a party of 1st level adventurers, and give them a Complexity 1 (Success 4 vs Failure 2), Level 1 task. Basically the easiest skill challenge such a party could face. I will assume a skill challenge where all of the DCs are medium, as this is the standard default for challenges. Then I will assume every player gets to use one of his best skills each time. For most characters, thats probably +9 (+4 from a stat, +5 for skill training). However, that gives me a 50% success rate, and a 50% failure rate. That can get confusing in math equations, so I will give the players another +1 advantage, making it 55% success and 45% failure. The question is, how likely is a party to succeed at this skill challenge?

    The Math: Conditional vs. Non-conditional Probability
    There are two main ways to calculate the odds of this scenario. One is conditional. That means I take into account that fact that once I hit two failures, the skill challenge is over. That could happen in as little as 2 rolls, it could happen in as many as 5 (if Im rolling a 6th roll, I would have already had either 2 failures or 4 successes, so 6 rolls can NEVER happen).
    The other way is non-conditional. What I can say is Im not going to look at when the failures happen, I am simply going to look at ALL the scenarios in which the party would beat the skill challenge, and discard scenarios where they would fail. This method is probably less intuitive right now, but I find the math easier to do, so I will choose this method. I will walk you through it as I go, and it should make sense.

    Calculating the Odds:
    What we are going to do is look at ALL the scenarios in which the party could win this skill challenge. The first thing to note is that the maximum number of rolls that can occur in this scenario is 5. At 5 rolls, I have already determined if the scenario is a failure or a success, every time. For example, if I had 3 successes I must have had 2 failures and the challenge has failed. If I have 4 successes and 1 failure, then the challenge was won.

    What I will assume is that every skill challenge is a series of 5 rolls, and I will add up ALL of the scenarios in which the party gains a success. The reason I can do this: Because Im looking at only the winning scenarios, the maximum number of failures I can have is 1. After all, if I have 2 failures, I would have had to fail the challenge somewhere along the way through the 5 rolls. Therefore, I dont care when the failure happens. I could happen in the 1st roll, or the 5th. As long as I have my 4 successes in their somewhere, I will count it as a win for the party.
    So in our series of 5 rolls, there are two ways in which the party can win the skill challenge:
    1) 4 successes and 1 failure.
    2) 5 successes and 0 failures.
    We must calculate the odds of both and add them both together to get the total party success.

    4 Successes and 1 Failure
    First, we calculate the odds of this happening once. From our scenario above, the party has a +10 to their rolls, and they are rolling against DC 20 (which is given in the DMG pg 42). That means they have a 55% chance to make that DC 20 every time. That means they will also have a 45% failure each time.
    So the probability of getting 4 successes and 1 failure is: .55 * .55 * .55 * .55 * .45 = .041.

    Now we have a single probability, but we have to account for all the scenarios in which 4 successes and 1 failure can occur. For example, you could have SSSSF or FSSSS or SFSSS or SSFSS or SSSFS. We will use a combination to calculate this, because the position of the successes and failures dont matter.
    Thats C(5 rolls, 4 desired) = 5. So we will multiply our initial probably .041 * 5 = .205.

    5 Successes and 0 Failures
    Initial Probability: Now its .55*.55*.55*.55*.55 = .55^5 = .0503.
    Our combination is C(5rolls, 5 desired) = 1. 1 * .0503 = .0503
    Total Outcome: Adding both of these scenarios together gives us: .2508 = 25.08% win rate. So basically with my party taking on the easiest possible challenge, they have only a 1 in 4 chance of succeeding. And remember, I gave them an extra bonus!! If I use my original example (+9 to each roll) they only have an 18.75% chance.

    Calculating Higher Complexities
    So I have shown the math for the most basic challenge. But often you are going to want complexity 5 challenges, which is supposed to be the skill challenge equivalent of a battle. A battle against basic level 1 guys doesnt sound too bad right?
    Im not going to go into the full math again, but I will lay out the ground work so you can do it yourself.
    We need 12 successes before 6 failures. That means at most we can have 17 rolls (Notice how this number is always one less than the total between successes and failures, that never changes). Out of all of our 17 roll scenarios, which ones will give us success?
    The answer, 12 successes and 5 failures, 13 successes and 4 failures, 14 successes and 3 failures, 15 successes and 2 failures, 16 successes and 1 failure, and 17 successes and 0 failures. Phew!! A lot of math to do. I will run the first scenario, and leave it to you all to finish the rest. I will of course provide the final answer!

    12 successes and 5 failures.
    Our individual probability is .55^12 * .45^5 = 1.41E-05 = .000014
    Our total probability for this scenario is C(17 rolls, 12 desired) = 6188. 6188 * .000014 = .08749.
    So now would repeat the process for the other scenarios. Doing that our total probability is: 14.71%, which is about 1 in 7. Again, thats using that extra bonus I added, what would it be if it was a straight up 50/50 roll each time? 7.17%, about 1 in 14.
    As a DM, do you feel that giving your party a 1 in 14 shot of handling even a basic challenge is fair?

    Taking it to the Next Level. Well weve seen that a 1st level party cant handle its own challenges, so lets bring in our boys from 4th level to do the job right. Those guys have a massive +2 bonus to all skills to help them out, so a total of +11 (I dont think these guys need that freebie bonus, afterall, these challenge is literally beneath them in difficulty!)
    4th level party vs 1st level, Complexity 1 Challenge: 33.70%
    4th level party vs 1st level, Complexity 5 Challenge: 26.39%
    Ummaybe that party needs that freebie bonus afterall?
    How about 6th level for another +1?
    6th level party vs 1st level, Complexity 1 Challenge: 42.84%
    6th level party vs 1st level, Complexity 5 Challenge: 41.97%
    Okay okay, enough of this! Our 8th level guys come in with another +1 and their stats have been bumped again, so lets give them a net +2 over our 6th level team.
    8th level party vs 1st level, Complexity 1 Challenge: 63.28%
    8th level party vs 1st level, Complexity 5 Challenge: 76.53%
    Your going to look at the 8th level numbers and think its a typoits not. Thats a result of how the complexity numbers are laid out. Once you get to 70% chance of succeeding on each individual roll, higher complexities actually give you a higher chance to succeed.
    Sowe have finally gotten a better than 50/50 chance to beat the challenge, and it only took a party 5-7 levels higher to do it.

    Conclusion
    I hope these examples have given some concrete proof that skill challenges are flawed as written. If you have any skepticism left, remember that I gave the party the advantage; I assumed they could use their best skills for the job. Take my original example, assume a 5 person party, and lets say that one character only has a +7 to his skills for that challenge. The result against a complexity 1 challenge? 16.35%. Against Complexity 5? 5.17%. Better roll a 20 on that d20, because thats all the shot you have.
    However, there is hope. I have taken the time to reconstruct the model and fix the numbers. That system is in the thread above. I hope this article has been a good eye opener for everyone, and I hope that if you dont choose to use my system you do find a new system that works for you. While the math of the skill challenge system doesnt work, the concept is very good, and I would hate if any group gave up on it due to numbers alone.

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    As far as I can tell, the 'Add +5 to the DC' for skill challenges is in error. The math arights if you remove it.

    Ie, 10/15/20, not 15/20/25.

    10/15/20 is also what was used at D&D XP.

  3. #3
    At first level, the easy/medium/hard DCs are 15/20/25.

    So your PC with +9 on his skill rolls will need 6/11/16 to succeed at them. Given that they can only get one failure, it just makes sense to focus on easy rolls. For the more complex challenges, with greater leeway, they can go for harder rolls.

    So to get four successes in a row (NOT five) is .75^4 = 31.6%. All of a sudden, skill challenges don't look so impossible.

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    ... as far as I know, you can't just choose to do easy challenges. I might be wrong. Basically you unlock them or certain specific skills are easy, but every member of the party is almost assuredly not doing an easy challenge.

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    Quote Originally Posted by keterys
    As far as I can tell, the 'Add +5 to the DC' for skill challenges is in error. The math arights if you remove it.

    Ie, 10/15/20, not 15/20/25.

    10/15/20 is also what was used at D&D XP.
    Taking off the +5 definitely helps, though that's not the end of the story.

    Basically, once you get into range with your DCs, the complexity numbers flip. At Complexity 5, the party would have a 76% chance to succeed, and complexity 1, a 63%

    And most skill challenges assume medium rolls, easy rolls are not something you can just use.

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    You forgot take 10.

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    Your model of success is slightly flawed. There are two possibilities for success in the complexity 1 challenge:

    1) 4 successes and 1 failure
    2) 4 successes and 0 failures

    You have #2 requiring an additional success. This doesn't change the answer significantly. You also haven't allowed any easy checks, nor accounted for aiding another (does that rule still exist?).

    I do think you've got the fundamentals right tho. It looks difficult.

    PS

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    Stalker; your math doesn't seem to include the fact that some players can roll a skill that does not contribute to successes or failures (called a secondary skill in the DMG) but does give other party members +2 to other related skill rolls (see DMG)

    Does it also allow for the fact that up to 4 players can co-operate to give the person rolling an up to +8 circumstance bonus if they make a DC check with their skills (p179 PHB)?

    Obviously you can't do this with every check, but inventive PCs will soon think of ways get these and extra +2 circumstance bonuses to make these skill challenges possible and even highly probable.

    It is also mentioned in the DMG that certain uses of rituals might grant automatic successes etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Storminator
    Your model of success is slightly flawed. There are two possibilities for success in the complexity 1 challenge:

    1) 4 successes and 1 failure
    2) 4 successes and 0 failures

    You have #2 requiring an additional success. This doesn't change the answer significantly. You also haven't allowed any easy checks, nor accounted for aiding another (does that rule still exist?).

    I do think you've got the fundamentals right tho. It looks difficult.

    PS
    You have to remember that I am looking at a non-conditional model. In your example, 4 successes and 0 failures mean that the players roll 4 die and then stop immediately, just as if they roll 2 failures out of the box they would stop. In my model, you are always rolling 5 rolls, and seeing how many of them are successes.

    Both conditional and non-conditional models work for this...but the math is VERY different. You cannot place ANY conditional modifiers into a non-conditional equation. That is why I have 5 successes and 0 failures.

    I didn't take into account easy checks because the default skill challenges don't use them, they are all medium.

    Aid Another does exist in a limited form. If its supposed to be the standard in skill challenges, its not explained correctly. If for example, a group of 5 players can have 1 person make rolls, and the other four provide +8 bonuses (which is the example given), then the skill challenge is so easy you might as well not even bother.

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    I thought the use of secondary skills and aid-another was explained well in the DMG, and expected. I don't see how you can hand-waive them if you are going to crunch the numbers.

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