Dear Natro,
Thanks for your comments.
1) For the 'Quarry' part of the equation (which covers warlock curse damage, ranger quarry, and rogue sneak attack damage) you are accounting for multiple attacks in both your probability and damage. Per the rules, this damage can only be applied once per round. This should greatly simplify this section of your calculation down to PHit(Dam) + PCrit(Dam).
Your equation is incorrect. The equation that I have is more complicated, but I think it is correct. The basic idea is this. If you have 50% of missing on an attack, and if you have two attacks, then you have (50% x 50%) = 25% chance of missing on
both attacks. Hence, you have a probability of 75% of hitting at least once. Therefore, you must add 75% of quarry damage. In general, if you hit with probability P, then (1-P) is the probability of missing, and (1-P)^2 is the probability of missing twice in a row, and 1-(1-P)^2 is the probability of hitting either once or twice.
The equation you propose is only correct if you have a single attack.
2) I am confused about your addition of the 'Auto' damage in the extra damage section. It looks like you have already accounted for attribute modifier damage in the basic attack damages. This portion should be omitted from the calculation if it is already accounted for in the basic attack damages. What would grant this automatic damage anyway?
This is not the attribute damage. The auto damage is damage that occurs regardless whether you hit or miss. For instance, a Stormwarden gets to apply Dex Bonus damage to one adjacent for at the end of each turn. Since this is a duel, I assume that every round, the stormwarden bases the enemy and hits, so at the end of each round, that one enemy gets dex bonus damage.
There are other ways of delivering automatic damage. For instance, a mage with "cloud of dagger" will automatically deal Wisdom Bonus damage to a foe that begins its turn in the square of the spell. Therefore, hit or miss, you get Wisdom Bonus damage once per turn.
Additionally, it appears that some of your 'Toon' data is incorrectly entered in some cases (I only looked at the level 1 data). It appears some min/max damages in accordance to the attribute values you provided are incorrect. Perhaps this was due to an assumed feat?
Yes, as detailed in the first post of this thread, I assume that the toons have all the pertinent feats. Mostly, this means Weapon Focus, or the equivalent feats for spells. In addition, as detailed in the first post in this thread, I am giving a flat +1 bonus to hit if you target Reflex, and +3 bonus to hit if you target Fort or Will. Although a Reflex attack is not directly comparable to an AC attack, the intent is to make them more comparable in this fashion.
In your assumptions you state that secondary effects will trigger 50% of the time. I think this should extend also include the extra attack a fighter would get for an adjacent marked opponent moving or shifting.
No, what I assume is, that your foe attacks you every turn and hits you 50% of the time. If you have a power that depends on being attacked or hit, that's where this 50% comes in. There are no OA in this duel, because it's just a duel without any complications.
It might be useful to indicate which feats are included in your analysis cases.
I think I listed them in the top post: weapon focus, scimitar dance or hammer rhythm and lasting frost are the main ones.
The general analysis should only include At-Will powers since this is the bread-and-butter of each class. A comparison of daily, encounter, or any combination of these is only really valid for a single round of combat.
There is one chart with encounter powers. Feel free to ignore it. The level 20 chart has a couple of toons using a daily stance power. Feel free to ignore those lines as well.