official revision to skill challenge system

Pseudopsyche · Jul 16, 2008

WotC just published new errata for the core books: http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/updates . The DMG errata revises the skill challenge system. In short, the DCs have been changed so that moderate is about 10 + 1/2 level. (Target DCs are the same for skills and mere ability checks now.) The different levels of skill challenge complexity only change the number of successes required to beat the challenge; three strikes and you're out for every level of complexity. All references to setting an initiative order have been removed, and the DMG now recommends that you limit aid another to one or two helpers per check.

(In case no one else has posted this information yet.)

So, how does the math work out?

JGulick · Jul 16, 2008

Somewhat improved. I mean, the basic math (general shape and pattern) is now sound, but the drop-off between chance of success for a small step in DC is quite drastic. Maybe workable, with the new lower suggested DCs so it's now far more common to live in the 60%+ chance of success on each roll world, but it moves in VERY sharp steps.

Here's a table, including some unofficial Complexity levels, showing the chance of success if everyone's chance of success on every die roll is the same.

Code:

Complex	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Success	2	4	6	8	10	12	14	16	18	20	22
Fail	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
5%	1.402%	0.009%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
10%	5.230%	0.127%	0.002%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
15%	10.952%	0.589%	0.024%	0.001%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
20%	18.080%	1.696%	0.123%	0.008%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
25%	26.172%	3.760%	0.423%	0.042%	0.004%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
30%	34.830%	7.047%	1.129%	0.159%	0.021%	0.003%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
35%	43.702%	11.742%	2.532%	0.482%	0.085%	0.014%	0.002%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
40%	52.480%	17.920%	4.981%	1.229%	0.281%	0.061%	0.013%	0.003%	0.001%	0.000%	0.000%
45%	60.902%	25.526%	8.846%	2.739%	0.788%	0.215%	0.056%	0.014%	0.004%	0.001%	0.000%
50%	68.750%	34.375%	14.453%	5.469%	1.929%	0.647%	0.209%	0.066%	0.020%	0.006%	0.002%
55%	75.852%	44.152%	22.013%	9.956%	4.214%	1.701%	0.662%	0.251%	0.093%	0.034%	0.012%
60%	82.080%	54.432%	31.539%	16.729%	8.344%	3.979%	1.834%	0.823%	0.361%	0.156%	0.066%
65%	87.352%	64.709%	42.781%	26.161%	15.129%	8.393%	4.509%	2.362%	1.212%	0.611%	0.304%
70%	91.630%	74.431%	55.177%	38.278%	25.282%	16.084%	9.936%	5.995%	3.548%	2.067%	1.187%
75%	94.922%	83.057%	67.854%	52.559%	39.068%	28.113%	19.711%	13.531%	9.126%	6.065%	3.980%
80%	97.280%	90.112%	79.692%	67.780%	55.835%	44.805%	35.184%	27.134%	20.608%	15.449%	11.452%
85%	98.802%	95.266%	89.479%	82.020%	73.582%	64.791%	56.138%	47.966%	40.490%	33.818%	27.983%
90%	99.630%	98.415%	96.191%	92.981%	88.913%	84.164%	78.925%	73.380%	67.693%	62.004%	56.427%
95%	99.952%	99.777%	99.421%	98.850%	98.043%	96.995%	95.706%	94.187%	92.452%	90.518%	88.406%

Anthony Jackson · Jul 16, 2008

The difficulty increase is actually +2 per 3 levels, which is somewhat closer to the real curve (without spending any feats or powers, going from 1-30 gets you +16 on a skill linked to a secondary stat, +19 on a skill linked to a primary), though skill enhancement items are a rather obvious application (some are already in the PHB), and if they follow the same curve as other enhancement items, will push the bonus up to +25 by level 30, and power bonuses can easily push it all the way to +30. Given that, it would probably be better to say:
Easy: 5 + level/2 (doable by just about any character)
Average: 10 + level * 2/3 (doable by a competent non-specialist)
Hard: 15 + level (requires a specialist).

Spatula · Jul 16, 2008

I think your 2nd column should have 4 successes, not 8, no?

JGulick · Jul 16, 2008

Yes, thanks... I know I'd typed that up too quickly.

Khime · Jul 16, 2008

I'm new to the whole 'combat challenges are (still?) broken' discussion, but has anyone run the numbers to see how often players succeed/fail at combat challenges of similar level/difficulty, and compared that with the skill challenge success rate? Or are there too many variables?

Anthony Jackson · Jul 17, 2008

Combat challenges aren't very variable -- one that's 3 levels too low (-2 DC) is a walkover, one that's 3 levels too high (+2 DC) is very hard, one that's 6 levels too high (+4 DC) is a party wipe. However, a PC party is unlikely to have a lot of variance in its ability to beat a combat challenge, whereas skill bonuses can vary enormously (at level 2, anywhere from +0 with an 8 stat to +20 with 20 stat, trained skill, skill focus, racial skill bonus, and a +4 Power bonus from some utility power).

JGulick · Jul 17, 2008

Khime said:
I'm new to the whole 'combat challenges are (still?) broken' discussion, but has anyone run the numbers to see how often players succeed/fail at combat challenges of similar level/difficulty, and compared that with the skill challenge success rate? Or are there too many variables?

Vastly too many.

Plus, combat challenges have a much more robust range from total success (monsters bested with no use of anything but At-Will and Encounter powers) to partial success (bested, but several healing surges, daily powers, action points, and/or limited use magic items expended) to partial failure (lost but expended only a limited amount of resources) to total failure (TPK or Retreat with near-total expenditure of resources). As things currently stand, non-combat challenges are much more binary (with some discussions of enhanced partial *success* and a few Daily powers you can burn to enhance them, but only a few).

MarkB · Jul 17, 2008

Khime said:
I'm new to the whole 'combat challenges are (still?) broken' discussion, but has anyone run the numbers to see how often players succeed/fail at combat challenges of similar level/difficulty, and compared that with the skill challenge success rate? Or are there too many variables?

That depends upon your definition of "fail". For a combat challenge, it could be anything from "use more healing surges than expected" right up to "TPK".

Anthony Jackson · Jul 17, 2008

A lot of the problems with skill challenges don't have anything to do with the DCs; they have to do with the actual mechanic being somewhat dull.

What makes combat mechanically interesting (as opposed to interesting from a roleplaying standpoint) is the existence of relevant choices (do I try to get around the soldiers and beat on the artillery over there, or do I slug it out with this soldier who's already bloodied and might be easy to finish off). For the most part, skill challenges aren't like that; instead, it's "pick a skill and use it to beat on the target". Adding multiple distinct objectives to a skill challenge which interact in complicated ways might make them more interesting, though it would also make them far more difficult to design.