Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

Ourph

First Post
People have been talking excitedly about nearly all books.
YMMV, but it seems to me that people (people who were actually interested in 4e that is) were much more excited about getting their hands on PHB2 (again, primarily b/c of the Barbarian, Bard and Druid) than they were about Manual of the Planes or Open Grave. I really wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that someone underestimated demand.
 
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avin

First Post
I don't know.

If he is biased against 4E and his arguments aren't valid due to this I can't think any Wotc employee arguments are valid, also, because they are biased too 0o

My feeling is PHB2 sold too well because of Bard, Barbarian and Sorcered.
 

malraux

First Post
Hitting any non-fiction bestseller list isn't that hard. For April 2nd, when the PHB2 was #14, "Who Moved My Cheese" was #15, and it's an eleven-year-old book.

True, one time appearance on a best seller list isn't all that big a deal. That said, appearance on multiple different lists is. As is appearance on yearly best seller lists.
 

The majority of bookstore managers who determine stock levels will look at what books sold in there store, what books sold in nationwide trends (best seller lists) and will stock those.
Having worked at Borders HQ a while back, it's actually not the bookstore managers that even make that decision, but the team of Buyers at the corporate offices that decide how many of what gets ordered and sent where. (For the big chains, at least. Of course, local bookstores may be different.) At least back in the late 90's when I worked there (corporate tech support, so I fixed people's PCs all over the offices), I believe there was 1 guy who handled all role-playing, fantasy fiction, sci fi, and horror, too, I think. Obviously RPGs were a pretty minor part of his job compared to those other sections.

In the decade since, I'm sure it's changed somewhat, but I still seriously doubt that the hundreds of Borders managers, and thousands of Waldenbooks managers really have much individual say in what gets purchased. It's a combination of tons of sales data, and huge stacks of review copies of books.

When I was an employee there, it was always a good idea to get in good with the buyers, because they had literally boxes of books sitting outside their cubes free for the taking. I know it sounds fun getting an advance copy of pretty much every book released in your area of interest, but every day they had to alternate reviewing row after row of numbers, and quickly thumbing through a dozen or more books a day.

Now, this is just my guess from how I know their workload was before, but I'm figure that something like the PHB2, being in the RPG section from an established publisher, probably garnered maybe a half hour attention one afternoon to determine how many were ordered for all Borders and Waldenbook stores. After all, there was probably stacks and stacks of "the next great sci fi author" novels to sift through that day. Of course, if someone from WotC was pushy and tried directly courting more sales, that's a different story. Like I said, that's just my guess from seeing these people work almost a decade ago, so take it as you will.

But the big chain orders would be almost entirely dependent on a brief review of actual sales data appearing in some ugly report (they were still running it all off of a 20 year old pain in the butt mainframe up until '99 at least), and maybe or maybe not some sweet talking from WotC about how awesome this book is going to be (just like how awesome every book every publisher tries to sell to the stores).

Lastly, I'm not surprised if they are doing poorly. I could tell you some horror stories about how bad that place was run - especially around the sordid history of Borders.com. :)
 

Mournblade94

Adventurer
Seems like, in light of the fact the the PHB2 was on the WSJ bestseller list, maybe WotC might have a good reason to not guess the demand accurately. PHB2 was a really big seller, bigger than previous books. It was obviously more anticipated than they realized. Why does there have to be ulterior motives or a doomsday prophecy to explain that it did better than predicted? It did realy well. Whoops, they underestimated that it would do this well.

Nice pot-shot Ryan, but your biases are obviously getting in the way. Sad.

EDIT: Sorry Derren, your analysis is a bit off. The PHB2 sold out, and it sold huge numbers. If it had just sold out, but not huge numbers, maybe you would have a leg to stand on.

Obviously no one is really an expert here. Ryan Dancey is the closest to an expert in the field, that has posted here.

Derren's analysis is just as good as anyone else's here.

The game store dealers I know tend to agree with Ryan Dancey.

I think Derren's analysis was as accurate as any othere here. PHB2 on the best seller Non fiction list is not that difficult a feat. In fact I think it would HAVE to make it on the list to continue the line. If it didn't make it I would be surprised.
 



Dragonblade

Adventurer
An evergreen product is one that sells consistently year after year.

As far as the GAMA debacle, basically Ryan made a bid to take over GAMA and it looked like he would be successful but then a scandal erupted when it was revealed he had had access to and had been secretly reading a privileged GAMA e-mail list that was normally restricted to GAMA insiders which Ryan was not at the time.

I think Ryan is a smart guy and generally knows what he's talking about. He may even be right about WotC's internal numbers and conversations. But I will say this: My gaming group has been playing D&D more avidly and enthusiastically with the release of 4e than we have since we were kids playing 1e all those years ago.

3.5 basically killed our inner D&D child, and we wouldn't be gaming at all if 4e hadn't come out. The bottom line is that 4e is a fun game and we enjoy it a lot. If it dies, we don't become Paizo customers, or GR customers, or customers of any other gaming company. We just quit playing tabletop completely and all the dollars we spend on peripheral products or 3PP materials will just go to video games, or some other hobby altogether.
 


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