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Thread: Proposal: Things to be nerfed

Monday, 1st June, 2009, 09:51 PM #71
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When I have someone say there isn't a reason to take a reliable attack because I KNOW they'll hit with ALL their multiple attacks, I don't find that irrelevant. As far as you assumption that it's just plain better everytime, I don't agree. You've thrown out to hit as a factor and that one of the benefits of the power you are saying in inferior. Of course it's inferior when you ignore one of it's strong points.
Maybe it's just your exclusive focus on straight damage that's thrown things off for you. I for one haven't seen a fighter above 17 with rain of blows. That's many fighters in quite a few games. And I've never seen it in action where I thought it was out of hand. But I guess if you pimp the system enough, you might be able to throw things out of whack. If it's JUST that focus, then make all the bonus damage objects use the same type. Make iron armbands, bloodclaw weapons ect. enhancement bonuses. *shrug* Hard for me to say.

Monday, 1st June, 2009, 10:02 PM #72
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Nope. Still not there. Tohit is not a factor here, because if you attack three/four times in an action, you have way more chances of connecting than when betting on only one strong attack. And saying you might just miss three or four times and deal no damage and lose the power, it's the same as saying that you might miss three or four rounds in a row with that reliable power, 'cause the rolls are exactly the same. The difference should be obvious.

Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 12:52 AM #73
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Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 02:03 AM #74
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Oh...
Epic Palindrome.
Now, that would be fun.

Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 03:12 AM #75
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That'd be... worrying!

Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 05:05 AM #76
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ø Friend+I wouldn't say it's NOT a factor, you just have to take hit rate into account as well as damage.
Let's say you have a 50% chance to hit a monster, and you do 1d10 damage with a +10 static mod. (Numbers pulled out of my ass, I'm just demonstrating how to do the math.) Don't forget that a 20 is a crit, so you have a 45% chance to hit for average damage (5.5 per die), a 5% chance to crit for max damage (10 per die), and a 50% chance to miss for 0 damage.
So for each attack of Rain of Blows, your expected damage is 0.45 * (5.5 + 10) + 0.05 * (10 + 10) + 0.50 * 0 = 7.975. Total expected damage is 4*7.975 = 31.9.
Meanwhile No Mercy has a single attack, with expected damage 0.45 * (7*5.5 + 10) + 0.05 * (7*10 + 10) + 0.50 * 0 = 25.825
That's not the whole story, though, because it's quite unlikely you'll actually do 25.825 damage  most of the time you'll do either 0, or much more than that. Let's break it down to cases where you do some damage and cases where you miss totally:
For each attack of Rain of Blows, your expected damage IF YOU HIT is (45/50)*(5.5+10) + (5/50)*(10+10). (Since there are 45 cases out of 100 where you hit for average damage, which means 45 cases out of the 50 where you do damage; and 5 cases out of 100 where you crit, meaning 5 cases out of the 50 where you do damage; and 50 cases out of 100 where you miss, which aren't included in this sample.) This works out to expected damage 15.95 for each attack THAT HITS.
Now, there's only 1 possibility where all 4 attacks hit, and it has probability 0.5^4=0.0625. There are 4 possibilities where 3 of 4 attacks hit, each with the same probability (total is 4*0.0625=0.25). There are 6 possibilities where 2 of 4 attacks hit (1 and 2 hit, 1 and 3 hit, 1 and 4 hit, 2 and 3 hit, 2 and 4 hit, 3 and 4 hit), again with the same probability (total is 6*0.0625=0.375). And 4 possibilities with 1 of 4 attacks hit (probability 0.25). And 1 possibility where no attacks hit (probability 0.0625). Doublecheck: 0.0625 + 0.25 + 0.375 + 0.25 + 0.0625 = 1.0, so the probabilities seem to work out.
Ok, so when 4 attacks hit, the expected damage is 15.95*4=63.8. Expected damage when 3 attacks hit is 15.95*3=47.85. Expected damage when 2 attacks hit is 15.95*2=31.9. And expected damage when 1 attack hits is 15.95. So the total expected damage when any attacks hit is 0.0625*63.8 + 0.25*47.85 + 0.375*31.9 + 0.25*15.95 = 31.9.
No Mercy is easier  the formula if the single attack hits is the same as above, (45/50)*(7*5.5+10) + (5/50)*(7*10+10) = 51.65.
So: No Mercy has a 50% chance of doing about 51.65 damage, and a 50% chance of doing none at all. (Or you could break this down further and say it has a 5% chance of doing 80 damage, a 45% chance of doing about 48.5 damage, and a 50% chance of doing none.)
Meanwhile, Rain of Blows has a 93.75% chance of doing about 31.9 damage, and a 6.25% chance of doing none. (Or you could break it down further and say it has a 6.25% chance of doing about 63.8 damage, a 25% chance of doing about 47.85 damage, a 37.5% chance of doing about 31.9 damage, a 25% chance of doing 15.95 damage, and only a 6.25% chance of doing none.)
So with a 50% chance of hitting and a +10 to damage, the two powers seem comparable: No Mercy will either do a large amount of damage or none, once a day, but you can keep trying until you hit (which of course uses up more actions, so it's still a pain). Rain of Blows most often does a smaller but respectable amount of damage, but has a 25% chance of doing just as much, a 25% chance of doing a disappointingly low amount, and only a small chance of missing entirely. It acts more like a "half damage on miss" power, but with a smaller chance of missing. And of course its once an encounter instead of once a day.
Of course, this is using numbers I pulled out of my ass. If you can get your hit percent about 50%, Rain of Blows will do more average damage and it will do its top damage more often, while No Mercy's damage stays the same but you can pull it off more often. If you can get your static bonus higher, Rain of Blows' average damage will grow quickly and No Mercy's will only bump up a bit.
FAKE EDIT: I just realized I screwed this all up, because 2 of the Rain of Blows attacks depend on the first attacks hitting, and I treated it as 4 independent attacks. So the numbers are all wrong. But I spent so much time on it, I'm damned if I'm deleting it all now.

Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 05:19 AM #77
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Ok, I get your point.
Four things:
A fighter will generally have a better than 50% chance to hit vs an equal level foe.
By the level you have access to No Mercy, +10 static modifier is ridiculously low (ONLY Strenght + enhancement AT LEAST +12, but it'd be ridicuolously low)
You considered retrying etc, but Rain of Blows is ONE action, four rolls. If you miss twice with No mercy, you've wasted two standard actions, not just one.
Math makes my small brain hurt.
So yeah, RoB is way better.
EDIT: oh, and fifth: the higher the level, the more extra damage, or effects, you'll have on criticals. And they'll be easier to pull off too (weapon mastery and the like). So yeah...

Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 07:57 AM #78
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Yes, RoB with a high static damage mod is better than No Mercy, most likely.
Another very important thing to remember is that RoB can be used every encounter. That could be once a day (which is the limit with No Mercy), or it could be five times a day. If you get to use RoB five times a day, it's nearly impossible to argue that No Mercy is comparable anymore. The only way you get that much mileage out of No Mercy is if you miss four times before hitting, but that doesn't increase its utility at all, it just means there were four times when all that you accomplished was not wasting a daily power.
If I got one power and I had to choose between Rain of Blows and No Mercy, I would choose No Mercy at low level (because 7[W] is massive at low levels), but I would choose Rain of Blows at high level. Seems a little backwards to me.
Edit: this is my post number 1337Last edited by Lord Sessadore; Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009 at 11:00 AM.

Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 10:49 AM #79
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When thinking about nerfs, there are two questions to be asked.
First, is the thing in question more powerful than other things of its level? I think, with regards to RoB, the answer is clearly yes.
Second, is it gamebreaking? IMO the answer is no for RoB. (Unless you're talking about PvP. Yeah, I'm lookin' at you, Oni. ) Dishing out higherthanaverage damage once per encounter just isn't game breaking. In fact, I think it adds to the fun, for both the player and the DM. The only way it might be a problem is if the other players at the table don't have a similar way to shine sometimes. But that's the DM's responsibility, to figure out how to make different kinds of players shine in different circumstances.

Tuesday, 2nd June, 2009, 02:53 PM #80
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Agreed. So far I've seen little gamebreaking powers, there are some powers that downright stink and some that are great. Now toss in synergies and sure there are some crazy powers, but it's very difficult to do that effectively. There are also classes that are more powerful than others, but it doesn't break the game. End of the day unless there are some crazyiness (like rod of corruption, I'm looking at you), then I don't see a reason to ban it.
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