LEB Discussion Thread '10

renau1g · Jul 17, 2010

Well you could buy it, but yeah there's no benefit except for a Rageblood barbarian or a hyrbid you spent their talent on that feature

evilbob · Jul 22, 2010

Dice Rolls

I thought that I had noticed a trend in my dice rolls lately and I wanted to confirm it. Thanks to the technology of invisiblecastle.com, I am able to track every single roll I've made since I started playing L4W / LEB. I then took those numbers and averaged them. Here is an interesting sort-of trend I've noticed:

1st adventure: Mervin, L4W
adventure average roll: 10.75
total crit success/fails: 3 / 2

2nd adventure: Unit 16, LEB
adventure average roll: 8.5
total crit success/fails: 1 / 2

3rd adventure: Unit 16, LEB
adventure average roll: 7.33
total crit success/fails: 1 / 2

4th adventure: Mervin, L4W
current adventure average roll: 9.89
total crit success/fails: 0 / 1

5th adventure: Empathy, L4W
current adventure average roll: 6.84
total crit success/fails: 0 / 3

6th adventure: Unit 16, LEB
current adventure average roll: 6.8
total crit success/fails: 0 / 2

Notice that the numbers generally keep heading down? Also, notice the disparity between natural 20s and natural 1s?

Here's another way to look at it:

total (all adventures) average roll for Mervin: 10.61 (57 d20 rolls)
crit success/fail: 3 / 3

total (all adventures) average roll for Unit 16: 7.71 (35 d20 rolls)
crit success/fail: 2 / 6

total (all adventures) average roll for Empathy: 6.84 (25 d20 rolls)
crit success/fail: 0 / 3

Here's a final tabulation:

total average across all characters (117 rolls): 8.94
crit success/fail: 5 / 12

Obviously, anything between 10 and 11 is pretty average. And to be fair, more dice rolls = probably going to be closer to average over time.

BUT I MEAN COME ON! Sheesh. In particular, the disparity between 1s and 20s is rather disheartening. I know it's just two numbers and they both have a 5% chance to come up, and they are both within statistically reasonable levels for such a small sample size, but man - it's still hard to watch. My poor psychic character has such an especially horrible track record that I honestly don't know how well she plays.

In the end, this is a good lesson in why I do not have a gambling problem. At least I'm lucky in love?

KarinsDad · Jul 22, 2010

Interesting.

Sheeva has an average of 10.3 with 3 1s and 2 20s. On the other hand, she has had 5 12s out of 28 rolls.

Grys has an average of 12.4 with 0 1s and 4 20s. He has 15 rolls 16 or higher out of 39.

Grys appreciates the luck that Unit 16 is throwing his way.

renau1g · Jul 22, 2010

If you don't mind me asking, how'd you get the average? did you cut and paste into excel or did you just manually add them together and divide by number of rolls? Just curious as I'd like to see mine as well, especially my DM ones

TwoHeadsBarking · Jul 22, 2010

I know I'd like to see Ashir's average rolls.

LadyLaw · Jul 22, 2010

I just did it in excel and it worked fine.

Az (my L4W Avenger) has an average of 12.6625 with 6 1's and 8 20's and a sample size of 80 rolls.

I don't have a large enough sample size for Talkrai yet for it to make any difference. She's only made 6 d20 rolls, hardly enough to get anything from.

What I have noticed, personally, is that I tend to get high rolls when it means very little and low rolls when I really need it. Although Az skews that a bit too with her roll twice on the attack thing.

On the other hand, I rolled snake eyes for damage on her daily when I used it, so yea...

renau1g · Jul 22, 2010

Ashir's are less terrible than I expected... he's actually only had 1 nat 1, but 4 20's (although 3 of them were outside of combat, a heal check to stabilize a fallen Max, an Arcana check at the beginning of the game, and on the fire skill challenge)

Average of Ashir
10.10204082

Result # of Times
1 1
2 3
3 8
4 7
5 5
6 8
7 6
8 5
9 5
10 8
11 6
12 4
13 1
14 3
15 5
16 7
17 6
18 1
19 5
20 4

Now his average roll this combat is just over 7... so yeah....

evilbob · Jul 22, 2010

r1: I did it manually but there's no reason excel wouldn't work very well in this regard. I thought about using it about the time I was already done.

Another thought I had was to get an idea for how often I rolled above 10, but honestly the averages do a pretty good job of explaining that.

Good to see that others are getting results more close to 10.5 - if everyone were off then I'd wonder about how that website worked. And yes, KD: that is officially impressive.

Mostly this started because I noticed I'd gotten 4 or 5 natural ones in the past week or so - and my other rolls were typically 2s or 7s. I was worried my average would be about 5 and ...well, it was! I still have faith that over time, given enough rolls, statistics will maintain an average... but it just may be a while.

Remember: just because the universe seems unfair to you doesn't mean it's unfair overall!

Velmont · Jul 22, 2010

I've got a quick look at River and I got an average of 10,81, but I've seen lately I have been rolling lower than in the first times.

I've look to a L4W character and Calisto got 10,02.

I think up to now, it look like average for me.