D&D 4E WotC, DDI, 4E, and Hasbro: Some History

After Vince Calouri was pushed out of Wizards of the Coast he was replaced by Chuck Heubner. Chuck basically had to manage Wizards on the downslope from the Pokemon salad days. Hasbro has been through many boom & bust cycles in the toy business and they have a standard response when it happens: cut headcount and reduce overhead. Since Wizards was de facto the only part of the business that had...
After Vince Calouri was pushed out of Wizards of the Coast he was replaced by Chuck Heubner. Chuck basically had to manage Wizards on the downslope from the Pokemon salad days. Hasbro has been through many boom & bust cycles in the toy business and they have a standard response when it happens: cut headcount and reduce overhead. Since Wizards was de facto the only part of the business that had not been rolled up into Hasbro proper it was not insulated by the successes of other things at Hasbro like GI Joe or Transformers.

While this was happening there was a big internal fight for control over the CCG business within Hasbro. Brian Goldner who was at the time the head of the Boys Toys (i.e. half the company) division of Hasbro thought that the company was missing a huge window of opportunity to follow up Pokemon with a series of mass-market CCGs linked to Hasbro's core brands GI Joe and Transformers. These battles resulted in things being escalated all the way to the C-Suite and the Hasbro Board, where Brian lost the fight and Wizards retained the exclusive ability within Hasbro to make CCGs. The downside for Wizards is that they were forced to do things with the Duelmaster brand that they did not want to do, and it never got the traction in the US that Wizards thought it could achieve. (In Japan, by contrast, it became a huge best-seller).

Chuck left after two years and Loren Greenwood, who had been the long time VP of Sales, replaced him in 2004. He was also a visible proponent of the idea that Wizards, and not Boys Toys, should set Hasbro's CCG strategy. Thus when Brian was named COO of the whole company in 2006 and CEO in 2008, Loren had a big problem on his hands. Loren guided the company through the post 3.5e crash of the TRPG market, the loss of the Pokemon franchise, and the unwinding of the Wizards retail strategy. All of this was pretty bitter fruit for hm since he'd been instrumental in building up much of what had to then be torn down. The combination of all these things led to Loren's exit and his replacement by Greg Leeds, who is the current CEO of Wizards.

Sometime around 2005ish, Hasbro made an internal decision to divide its businesses into two categories. Core brands, which had more than $50 million in annual sales, and had a growth path towards $100 million annual sales, and Non-Core brands, which didn't.

Under Goldner, the Core Brands would be the tentpoles of the company. They would be exploited across a range of media with an eye towards major motion pictures, following the path Transformers had blazed. Goldner saw what happened to Marvel when they re-oriented their company from a publisher of comic books to a brand building factory (their market capitalization increased by something like 2 billion dollars). He wanted to replicate that at Hasbro.

Core Brands would get the financing they requested for development of their businesses (within reason). Non-Core brands would not. They would be allowed to rise & fall with the overall toy market on their own merits without a lot of marketing or development support. In fact, many Non-Core brands would simply be mothballed - allowed to go dormant for some number of years until the company was ready to take them down off the shelf and try to revive them for a new generation of kids.

At the point of the original Hasbro/Wizards merger a fateful decision was made that laid the groundwork for what happened once Greg took over. Instead of focusing Hasbro on the idea that Wizards of the Coast was a single brand, each of the lines of business in Wizards got broken out and reported to Hasbro as a separate entity. This was driven in large part by the fact that the acquisition agreement specified a substantial post-acquisition purchase price adjustment for Wizards' shareholders on the basis of the sales of non-Magic CCGs (i.e. Pokemon).

This came back to haunt Wizards when Hasbro's new Core/Non-Core strategy came into focus. Instead of being able to say "We're a $100+ million brand, keep funding us as we desire", each of the business units inside Wizards had to make that case separately. So the first thing that happened was the contraction you saw when Wizards dropped new game development and became the "D&D and Magic" company. Magic has no problem hitting the "Core" brand bar, but D&D does. It's really a $25-30 million business, especially since Wizards isn't given credit for the licensing revenue of the D&D computer games.

It would have been very easy for Goldner et al to tell Wizards "you're done with D&D, put it on a shelf and we'll bring it back 10 years from now as a multi-media property managed from Rhode Island". There's no way that the D&D business circa 2006 could have supported the kind of staff and overhead that it was used to. Best case would have been a very small staff dedicated to just managing the brand and maybe handling some freelance pool doing minimal adventure content. So this was an existential issue (like "do we exist or not") for the part of Wizards that was connected to D&D. That's something between 50 and 75 people.

Sometime around 2006, the D&D team made a big presentation to the Hasbro senior management on how they could take D&D up to the $50 million level and potentially keep growing it. The core of that plan was a synergistic relationship between the tabletop game and what came to be known as DDI. At the time Hasbro didn't have the rights to do an MMO for D&D, so DDI was the next best thing. The Wizards team produced figures showing that there were millions of people playing D&D and that if they could move a moderate fraction of those people to DDI, they would achieve their revenue goals. Then DDI could be expanded over time and if/when Hasbro recovered the video gaming rights, it could be used as a platform to launch a true D&D MMO, which could take them over $100 million/year.

The DDI pitch was that the 4th Edition would be designed so that it would work best when played with DDI. DDI had a big VTT component of its design that would be the driver of this move to get folks to hybridize their tabletop game with digital tools. Unfortunately, a tragedy struck the DDI team and it never really recovered. The VTT wasn't ready when 4e launched, and the explicit link between 4e and DDI that had been proposed to Hasbro's execs never materialized. The team did a yoeman's effort to make 4e work anyway while the VTT evolved, but they simply couldn't hit the numbers they'd promised selling books alone. The marketplace backlash to 4e didn't help either.

Greg wasn't in the hot seat long enough to really take the blame for the 4e/DDI plan, and Wizards just hired a new exec to be in charge of Sales & Marketing, and Bill Slavicsek who headed RPG R&D left last summer, so the team that committed those numbers to Hasbro are gone. The team that's there now probably doesn't have a blank sheet of paper and an open checkbook, but they also don't have to answer to Hasbro for the promises of the prior regime.

As to their next move? Only time will tell.
 

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Ryan S. Dancey

Ryan S. Dancey

OGL Architect

Kzach

Banned
Banned
More honesty would help, to be sure. But it isn't sufficient on its own. Many software teams honestly believe in their estimates. Others present a more realistic schedule, only to be ignored or shouted down.

I just don't believe the honesty part on estimates. I might believe it from someone who's only had a year or two in the industry, but not from anyone else. What you're telling us is what you've learned over time from countless examples, right? So either estimates are dishonest or the people giving them are delusional and lying to themselves; otherwise simple experience would tell them that their estimates are way off because they always have been in the past.

What's more, why are the more realistic estimates shouted down? Can you honestly tell me that the reason for such a social dynamic isn't because they don't want the employer to hear such estimates? Why be so vehement otherwise?

Wouldn't it be better to develop a reputation for getting things done UNDER budget and either on-time or before time by giving conservative estimates based on realistic goals than constantly being excessively (and let's face it, how many times is it just a few days over or just a few hundred dollars difference as opposed to months and tens of thousands of dollars or more?) late and over budget?

To me it's the difference between buying a budget Kmart TV and a Sony Bravia. In a sense it's not just the developers fault since anyone who doesn't do due diligence before committing to such outrageously inaccurate estimates is only getting what they paid for; maybe if WotC hadn't been so cheap, they wouldn't have ended up wasting hundreds of thousands (or perhaps millions?) of dollars on a project that died horribly before it had even begun.
 

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Nagol

Unimportant
<snip>

What's more, why are the more realistic estimates shouted down? Can you honestly tell me that the reason for such a social dynamic isn't because they don't want the employer to hear such estimates? Why be so vehement otherwise?


<snip>

Typically, it is the employer/management/executive doing the shouting -- not a vendor or salesman.

People, even very smart and educated people, simply have no clue as the the difficulty and complexity required to get their requirements met.

*edit*

And that doesn't even begin to touch the situations where those same people have already built an emotional investment in an outcome. "How dare you say it'l take 3 months?!? I told the CEO we could do it in time for his speech next week!"
 
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Rogue Agent

First Post
Agreed. Encounters is not really a 'learners' style game.

Although Encounters doesn't reach out to new players in any appreciable fashion, it does serve a few valuable functions:

(1) It gives players a chance to play who would otherwise drop out of the hobby due to lack of a group.

(2) It allows players to meet other players, which may allow non-Encounters groups to form.

(3) It brings people into the local game stores, which not only helps the local game store but can also help sell auxiliary products.

Despite its many limitations and faults, Encounters is a great program and it's great that WotC is doing it.

I just don't believe the honesty part on estimates.

That's your prerogative, of course. But we're talking about studies which include internal and private estimates which have no motivation for under-bidding the actual time (and a lot of reasons not to do so).

The reality is that this is a phenomenon that isn't limited to software development. You can find another well-known example with authors: Finishing a novel is often the quickest and easiest part of writing the book (because you've already done the "iceberg work"; because the finish line is in sight; because it's easy to motivate yourself; because you're often revising work instead of writing a rough draft from scratch). Novelists fresh off finishing a book remember the good times of the past month and think to themselves, "If I just keep up that pace, the next novel will be a breeze."

And then they quickly discover (and remember) the iceberg and the next book takes much longer than they estimated.

This happens all the time, across industries, and in many different kinds of projects.
 

I got to watch a small buisness get it's first real computers (a driving school).

All we wanted was a program that we would put 45 instructors into, and keep track of there scheduils... 2 hr/ 3hr/ or 4hr blocks at a time. then connect that to a database of students to cross ref witch students were in the scheduil.... we asked if as a bonus feature if it could in the database of students have a notes section and a bill section.

We were told 3-5 months for a new program, or 3 weeks to modfy a program the computer guys already had. we went for the modfy. 3 weeks and nothing... 2 months and they were working bugs out.

I was asked after 6 months to look at a beta of the program and try it... all it had was instructor names, blank notes fields for txt, then a second (non linked) database of customers Name/date of birth/ addresss, and a notes field with a 30 character limit.

I told the owner of the school this would not do, he asked me to talk to the computer guys... I tried to explain that I could do what they just gave me with microsoft office, only better. I could make a database of customers in access, link it to a series of excel books that where instructor scheduils, and link it to word for printing out reports.

I was onto a new job about 8 months after that, but when I left this program was still not functioning. I herd they did get it up and running at some point....
 

DaveMage

Slumbering in Tsar
So as I digest all that's been written here, it seems that in 2006 the D&D team faced a quandary: find a way to have the brand generate $50+ million or risk all members of the D&D team losing their jobs.

Is that correct?

I'm glad I don't work there. :)
 

Alphastream

Adventurer
So as I digest all that's been written here, it seems that in 2006 the D&D team faced a quandary: find a way to have the brand generate $50+ million or risk all members of the D&D team losing their jobs.

Is that correct?

I'm glad I don't work there. :)

Just my guess, but I would guess it was more like "Hey, here's an exciting way that we might create the best version of D&D ever AND finally solve the RPG industry's problem around revenue! It's risky, but we think it could work." It was probably very cool for many involved.

Again, I'm just guessing. A lot of companies go through these kinds of moments at some point in their history. Given a good team, it can be a lot of fun to try something risky and huge and new. I've been fortunate to have been through such an experience. It didn't pan out in the long run, but everyone learned from it and we all are stronger for it. I don't regret any decision I made, nor that anyone below me made. Also, much of the time was very fun.
 

Alphastream

Adventurer
Pathfinder beginner box is not a loss leader
I stand corrected, thanks! I assumed that, based on the logic we've heard so often that boxed sets are low on profit, and given that these two intro sets have more stuff than most, they had to be either 0 profit or negative (especially once you threw in advertising). But those quotes indicate that at least the Paizo set is not a loss. That's great news!

"One thing I do want to make clear. Goblinworks won't have any negative impact on Paizo. Separate company. Separate staffs."
That one isn't so clear. Separate companies is a typical arrangement. It means that if the MMO completely fails, then the banks take all that Goblinworks owns, not what Paizo owns. That's normal. Now, perhaps Lisa is also saying that they aren't using any money from Paizo to build it, but that isn't clear from what she wrote. Someone is paying salaries, office space, and money to fuel the partnerships or technology. Maybe this is all separate loans, but even then it has a common origin (the collateral has to come from the same space, at the very least, and impacts the ability of Paizo to do the same).
 

Alphastream

Adventurer
While it's true that D&D continues to occupy that position by virtue of public awareness, I'm not sure we'd actually notice anything if it went away.

The products aren't available in mainstream markets. WotC isn't advertising to non-gamers. There's no value-add happening here in terms of picking up new customers

Seriously? Have you seen the adds for Red Box that popped up when you used Yahoo mail or Google for e-mail related to gaming? Did you see the adds when Target carried the Red Box (still does online)? Did you see the advertising of the D&D Bus at PAX and the lines of gamers that were new, young, and/or female, at PAX? Do you see the online communities that talk D&D due to the work of their community guys? How many other RPGs have authors with books like “Confessions of a Part-Time Sorceress, A Girl’s Guide to the D&D Game” and "Everything I Need to Know I Learned from Dungeons & Dragons"? Just those two books have landed Shelly Mazzanoble on CNN, Wired/GeekDad, Random House/Suvudu, Forbes, Gamers Daily News, Escapist, Amazon, and a ton of blogs and podcasts and radio shows. Let alone that any prominent new products (say, Dark Sun when it released, or the board games) get covered by tons of sites.

And Encounters does make a big impact. It does come with easy-to use pregens and start at level 1 and only reach level 3 for a reason. Sure, it could be better at speaking to just intro players, but that isn't the only audience. Of the 300+ different gamers that played Encounters in just the first two Encounters seasons at my store I saw brand new players, young kids with parents, players that had not played since 1st edition / 2nd edition / 3.0 / 3.5 / Pathfinder / other RPGs, casual players, players that couldn't fit games into their busy schedule, parents that can't play on weekends, etc. Other RPGs would kill for a program like this, and the budget to run it! But, more importantly, when a player comes into the store for Encounters they get a chance to see what the store offers. They might pick up Deadlands, EclipsePhase, or even Pathfinder. If the store really is as important as Ryan Dancey / Paizo and Wizards say it is, then Wizards is a very important part of the equation.
 

Rogue Agent

First Post
Seriously? Have you seen the adds for Red Box that popped up when you used Yahoo mail or Google for e-mail related to gaming?

Targeted at existing gamers.

Did you see the adds when Target carried the Red Box (still does online)?

They weren't able to keep it on Target shelves for more than a few weeks and their ads were, again, targeted at existing gamers.

Did you see the advertising of the D&D Bus at PAX and the lines of gamers that were new, young, and/or female, at PAX?

Advertising to gamers.

Do you see the online communities that talk D&D due to the work of their community guys?

More existing gamers.

Everything you've said here just ends up supporting what I said originally: The products aren't available in mainstream markets. <acronym title="Wizards of the Coast">WotC</acronym> isn't advertising to non-gamers. There's no value-add happening here in terms of picking up new gamers.
 

Argyle King

Legend
Seriously? Have you seen the adds for Red Box that popped up when you used Yahoo mail or Google for e-mail related to gaming?

no

Did you see the adds when Target carried the Red Box (still does online)?

Honestly, until now, I had no idea Target ever carried the Red Box. Supposedly Wal-Mart carried it, and I believe they did, but none of the Wal-Marts here got any copies in.

Did you see the advertising of the D&D Bus at PAX and the lines of gamers that were new, young, and/or female, at PAX? Do you see the online communities that talk D&D due to the work of their community guys?

I wasn't there, so no.

How many other RPGs have authors with books like “Confessions of a Part-Time Sorceress, A Girl’s Guide to the D&D Game” and "Everything I Need to Know I Learned from Dungeons & Dragons"?

I'm not sure, but I'll look into it.

And Encounters does make a big impact.

I would agree with this. Unfortunately, Encounters didn't seem to work out well in this area. By that I mean the program started out strong, but interest tapered off very quickly. This is largely an anecdotal answer though; other posters say the opposite has been true where they live.

...and the budget to run it!

completely agree
 

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