Mercurius
Legend
There have been plenty of threads, including one or three that I've started, about what WotC should or shouldn't do, what we like or don't like about what we see so far, and so forth, but what I don't see a lot of--except for a stray post here and there scattered amidst everything else--is what people think will actually happen. So here's your chance to share your divining powers: How do you think 5E will unfold? What will the edition cycle look like? What sort of products will we see? Whither the OGL? And so forth.
To get the conversation started, here's my best guess:
I think WotC will settle into a pattern of two story arcs a year, plus maybe one other big release - a Monster Manual, Unearthed Arcana, or setting sourcebook kind of thing. I don't think we'll see any, or least many, shorter supplements or adventures - at least not anytime soon. So we're looking at maybe 3-4 releases a year, including the two story arcs, one big release, and maybe something else thrown in there to even it out for the seasons. The big release will be an annual GenCon surprise (or is this wishful thinking?).
I think Dragon+ will take off, at least to a degree, with regular updates. It will be a shadow of the former online Dragon, which in turn was a shadow of the print Dragon, but it will be something. We'll also eventually see a similar product for Dungeon, maybe in 2016 (or perhaps as the GenCon announcement this year) which will be WotC's version of one-shot adventures. We might see a Best of Dungeon Annual in print form at some point, but I'm not so sure about that.
The OGL will be announced later this year and unleash a mild boom, although not as massive as 3E era - and thus not as big of a bust. The license itself will be somewhere between the OGL and GSL in terms of flexibility and freedom. After a year or two, two or three companies will emerge as 3PP publishing leaders, with the usual assortment of adventures, splats, and setting stuff. But we'll also see a lot of smaller companies, but mainly through PDF format.
At some point in late 2015, WotC will also finally unveil conversion documents, which will be available for free as PDFs.
Finally, a WotC-approved tools suite will be released that will revolutionize DMing, combining elements of Masterplan, Monster Builder, with encounter, adventure, and campaign design builders that assist a DM in all aspects of the game. Maybe it will be Fantasy Grounds, I don't know. This probably won't be until 2016 or even 2017.
As for the edition cycle itself, 5E will somewhat succeed as the evergreen edition of Dungeons & Dragons, although we will eventually see a revised version, but more like a "5.2" than a "5.5" or "6." This might happen starting with free PDF updates to Basic and then revised versions of the core books in 5+ years. Beyond that it is almost impossible to say, considering potential rapid changes in technology. But I imagine that we'll eventually see templates for pre-built and build your own 3-D printer miniatures.
What I feel less comfortable speculating about is the impact of a possible movie franchise or TV show. It really depends upon the quality of offering and of course we all know from X-Men that success with film doesn't necessarily translate to success with the print version.
Anyhow, just throwing that out stream-of-consciousness. I may read over it in a day or two and think, what was I thinking?! But hopefully this will get some speculation flowing...
To get the conversation started, here's my best guess:
I think WotC will settle into a pattern of two story arcs a year, plus maybe one other big release - a Monster Manual, Unearthed Arcana, or setting sourcebook kind of thing. I don't think we'll see any, or least many, shorter supplements or adventures - at least not anytime soon. So we're looking at maybe 3-4 releases a year, including the two story arcs, one big release, and maybe something else thrown in there to even it out for the seasons. The big release will be an annual GenCon surprise (or is this wishful thinking?).
I think Dragon+ will take off, at least to a degree, with regular updates. It will be a shadow of the former online Dragon, which in turn was a shadow of the print Dragon, but it will be something. We'll also eventually see a similar product for Dungeon, maybe in 2016 (or perhaps as the GenCon announcement this year) which will be WotC's version of one-shot adventures. We might see a Best of Dungeon Annual in print form at some point, but I'm not so sure about that.
The OGL will be announced later this year and unleash a mild boom, although not as massive as 3E era - and thus not as big of a bust. The license itself will be somewhere between the OGL and GSL in terms of flexibility and freedom. After a year or two, two or three companies will emerge as 3PP publishing leaders, with the usual assortment of adventures, splats, and setting stuff. But we'll also see a lot of smaller companies, but mainly through PDF format.
At some point in late 2015, WotC will also finally unveil conversion documents, which will be available for free as PDFs.
Finally, a WotC-approved tools suite will be released that will revolutionize DMing, combining elements of Masterplan, Monster Builder, with encounter, adventure, and campaign design builders that assist a DM in all aspects of the game. Maybe it will be Fantasy Grounds, I don't know. This probably won't be until 2016 or even 2017.
As for the edition cycle itself, 5E will somewhat succeed as the evergreen edition of Dungeons & Dragons, although we will eventually see a revised version, but more like a "5.2" than a "5.5" or "6." This might happen starting with free PDF updates to Basic and then revised versions of the core books in 5+ years. Beyond that it is almost impossible to say, considering potential rapid changes in technology. But I imagine that we'll eventually see templates for pre-built and build your own 3-D printer miniatures.
What I feel less comfortable speculating about is the impact of a possible movie franchise or TV show. It really depends upon the quality of offering and of course we all know from X-Men that success with film doesn't necessarily translate to success with the print version.
Anyhow, just throwing that out stream-of-consciousness. I may read over it in a day or two and think, what was I thinking?! But hopefully this will get some speculation flowing...