D&D 5E Crystal Ball: A year in, how do you think 5E will unfold going forward?

There have been plenty of threads, including one or three that I've started, about what WotC should or shouldn't do, what we like or don't like about what we see so far, and so forth, but what I don't see a lot of--except for a stray post here and there scattered amidst everything else--is what people think will actually happen. So here's your chance to share your divining powers: How do you think 5E will unfold? What will the edition cycle look like? What sort of products will we see? Whither the OGL? And so forth.

To get the conversation started, here's my best guess:

I think WotC will settle into a pattern of two story arcs a year, plus maybe one other big release - a Monster Manual, Unearthed Arcana, or setting sourcebook kind of thing. I don't think we'll see any, or least many, shorter supplements or adventures - at least not anytime soon. So we're looking at maybe 3-4 releases a year, including the two story arcs, one big release, and maybe something else thrown in there to even it out for the seasons. The big release will be an annual GenCon surprise (or is this wishful thinking?).

I think Dragon+ will take off, at least to a degree, with regular updates. It will be a shadow of the former online Dragon, which in turn was a shadow of the print Dragon, but it will be something. We'll also eventually see a similar product for Dungeon, maybe in 2016 (or perhaps as the GenCon announcement this year) which will be WotC's version of one-shot adventures. We might see a Best of Dungeon Annual in print form at some point, but I'm not so sure about that.

The OGL will be announced later this year and unleash a mild boom, although not as massive as 3E era - and thus not as big of a bust. The license itself will be somewhere between the OGL and GSL in terms of flexibility and freedom. After a year or two, two or three companies will emerge as 3PP publishing leaders, with the usual assortment of adventures, splats, and setting stuff. But we'll also see a lot of smaller companies, but mainly through PDF format.

At some point in late 2015, WotC will also finally unveil conversion documents, which will be available for free as PDFs.

Finally, a WotC-approved tools suite will be released that will revolutionize DMing, combining elements of Masterplan, Monster Builder, with encounter, adventure, and campaign design builders that assist a DM in all aspects of the game. Maybe it will be Fantasy Grounds, I don't know. This probably won't be until 2016 or even 2017.

As for the edition cycle itself, 5E will somewhat succeed as the evergreen edition of Dungeons & Dragons, although we will eventually see a revised version, but more like a "5.2" than a "5.5" or "6." This might happen starting with free PDF updates to Basic and then revised versions of the core books in 5+ years. Beyond that it is almost impossible to say, considering potential rapid changes in technology. But I imagine that we'll eventually see templates for pre-built and build your own 3-D printer miniatures.

What I feel less comfortable speculating about is the impact of a possible movie franchise or TV show. It really depends upon the quality of offering and of course we all know from X-Men that success with film doesn't necessarily translate to success with the print version.

Anyhow, just throwing that out stream-of-consciousness. I may read over it in a day or two and think, what was I thinking?! But hopefully this will get some speculation flowing...

Think you have it about right. Boxed sets might end up being the non-AP product of choice, as those can be sold in Walmart, Target, Toys R Us, etc.

Dragon+ and the theoretical Dungeon+ might get better over time, particularly if they open up for fan submissions. Time will tell.

I think the idea of two story arcs a year with an additional resource book would be ideal (for me as a customer, not necessarily as a business model). I would like to hope that WotC has learned that people do not want to pay "campaign setting prices" for a hardback splatbook, and would also agree that a "big" release at GenCon (hopefully having products on hand or in place with the major distributors - imagine hearing about it at GenCon, ordering it on Amazon and having it delivered in time for your flight back home!) rather than simply announcing the next big thing) would be advantageous.

Dragon+ is a great concept in my opinion, provided that the content doesn't become just another avenue to advertise things OTHER THAN the TTRPG. I would absolutely expect to see a Neverwinter MMO ad here and there, but primarily it should be supporting content and advertisements for TTRPG materials. Dungeon+ would be great for those of us as digital GMs, and I for one would pay for drop-in adventures delivered to my mobile device.

Regarding the OGL - I am hopeful that it's better than the 4e GSL and that's all. I believe that even WotC can see that the business model of "no/minimal 3rd party content" on the market hurts the game and the brand, not helps.

Conversion documents - especially for 3e/3.5 would be awesome (for me). A lot of us got into the hobby with 3rd edition and I for one purchased a lot of materials that supported that edition. To be able to bring a lot of that to play in 5e would pretty much reestablish my faith in them as a company that listens to their customers.

Everything else - well, is everything else. I don't know enough about film production and development to say whether that would be successful, although if properly marketed could bring more players to the TTRPG.

I have my doubts about an OGL.

I see this as a disruption to Wizards tight reign on their story business plan. Imagine people just buying the core books from Amazon and then going to all the other 3rd party dealers and spending the bulk of their money there.

Corpsetaker said:

I have my doubts about an OGL.

I see this as a disruption to Wizards tight reign on their story business plan. Imagine people just buying the core books from Amazon and then going to all the other 3rd party dealers and spending the bulk of their money there.

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Given what they seem to be doing business-wise, I expect their response to that would be "Good. Working as intended."

One or two APs a year. Maybe, big maybe, one splatbook if new rules are needed for an AP (e.g. psionics). Some UE articles. No real content in Dragon+, just advertizing. Probably no OGL. Some online tool, like the one Dungeonscape was supposed to sell. But no new content their either. That is it. D&D under 5e's reign, ladies an gentlemen.

Staffan said:

Given what they seem to be doing business-wise, I expect their response to that would be "Good. Working as intended."

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Yup.

goldomark said:

One or two APs a year. Maybe, big maybe, one splatbook if new rules are needed for an AP (e.g. psionics). Some UE articles. No real content in Dragon+, just advertizing. Probably no OGL. Some online tool, like the one Dungeonscape was supposed to sell. But no new content their either. That is it. D&D under 5e's reign, ladies an gentlemen.

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And it is awesome.

Parmandur said:

And it is awesome.

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For you.

I suspect that it's going to be about where we are now, with 2 more AP. The only questions are going to be how well supported Dragon+ (and maybe Dungeon+) really is. The odds of an OGL are very, very low, unless they get massive feedback to the contrary. Considering that we (forum posters) generally represent the extremes, we are a very bad sample. No one I know IRL wants another OGL, but wouldn't mind seeing a few limited licenses to support campaign settings that WotC doesn't plan on supporting itself.