4.33 Years in: What Now for 5E? (and have we reached "Peak Edition?")

gyor · Nov 28, 2018

We are no where near peak, not even close, and social media is a huge part of that. On top of that if we get a an awesome D&D movie we could see an even bigger explosion in market size.

There is so much they could expand, so much has been untouched, and so much could be expanded upon.

Shiroiken · Nov 28, 2018

I don't think we can figure out when the "peak" is in the moment, but is something that is discovered afterwards. 2E was a prime example of this, as most players I knew were loving it in the 90s, but obviously this wasn't a trend that TSR could maintain (I didn't know about the WotC buyout of TSR until 3E came out). When 2E jumped the shark, it was a quick/sharp fall.

I would say that right now 5E is running high. There is a stable amount of product put out per year, and limited supplements have kept bloat in check. I think the biggest problem with 5E right now is that the AP model is starting to strain, with each adventure taking longer to run than the release length. This will keep many DMs from buying every AP, since they won't ever be able to run them all. For me this isn't an issue, but I don't really like the AP model anyway.

I think that 5E could become the longest active edition of D&D, not counting the total run of the various BECMI products. A revised edition is unlikely, IMO, because there isn't enough wrong with the game to warrant it. Most problems have been fixed with errata, sage advice, or house-rules, and I suspect that will continue for a while.

If/when they make a 6E, I would hope it would be closer to the transition between 1E & 2E than any of the other edition transitions. The changes were significant, but a player of the older edition could figure most of the game out with very little effort. In fact, it was possible to play one of the discontinued classes (barbarian and cavalier) with only a little bit of additional work. Most games I played in used a mix of rules from both editions, which I found to be a good thing.

Jester David · Nov 28, 2018

gyor said:
On top of that if we get a an awesome D&D movie we could see an even bigger explosion in market size.

Because hit movies and TV shows have significantly increased the sales of comic books?

robus · Nov 28, 2018

ad_hoc said:
Guardians of the Galaxy did it.

If they copy that formula it will at least be fun.

I wouldn’t put sci-fi in the same genre as D&D.

But yeah if they can make it a fun romp like that or Pirates of the Caribbean it’ll be good. But those were both surprise hits elevated by great casting. Fingers crossed I guess...

robus · Nov 28, 2018

Jester David said:
Because hit movies and TV shows have significantly increased the sales of comic books?

Agreed. What we’ve seen be the best promotions have been streamed content featuring celebs. I’m amazed they’ve yet to get people like Stephen Colbert to play in a game. He was keenly into D&D as a kid and I’m sure would be highly entertaining. The game needs examples where people say “that’s cool, I want to do that!”

I’m not sure a movie will communicate that.

Parmandur · Nov 28, 2018

Hussar said:
I'm just starting a new campaign with Dragon Heist.

Now, for a bit of background, this is the first official D&D adventure path I've run since... errr... Savage Tides back in the tail end of 3e. Wow, it's been that long. And, something that REALLY slapped me in the face is how different things look now than then.

WotC's AP's aren't really just AP's anymore. They are a core book for an entire line. Looking at DM's Guild, there are more than a dozen supplements, all high quality, professional stuff, just for a 5 level module. O.O Dragon Heist has been out for what, six months? Thereabouts. And we already have enough material there that I could, if I wanted to, stretch that single module to a pretty lengthy campaign.

This is, IME, unprecedented. The modules, whether AP's or not, in the past were all fire and forget. You bought Return to the Temple of Elemental Evil, maybe picked up a web enhancement and that was it. There wasn't a long tail of products that you could buy for a given module.

It's a really different market. Each module now has this tail - extra modules, figures, maps packs, whatever - of products that keep that module floating. While it's remarkable how well the core books are selling, what really, really blows me away is things like, say, Rise of Tiamat - a module that wasn't exactly a rousing success as far as gamers were concerned- is STILL 5000 (ish) of all books on Amazon.

Think about that for a moment. A four year old MODULE is selling that well. That's unheard of. Four years after a module is released into the wild, the normal life cycle would be recycle bins at gaming stores. And that's the WORST WotC offering as far as Amazon rank goes. Good grief, Hoard of the Dragon Queen is just shy of breaking the top 1000.

The new market for WotC is a very different place. Each product that WotC bangs out isn't a stand alone thing. Each one is an entire line unto itself that feeds into the main line. I mean, think about it. How many supplements were there for any module previously? Modules with their own miniatures? You might have gotten some fiction books, I suppose, but, even then, that was pretty rare outside of Dragonlance. It's not like the Forgotten Realms novels followed modules.

But, all of this creates such a unique position for WotC and its products. You're not going to see a "Complete" line anymore where each book is largely fire and forget with a six month sales window and then fading into obscurity. No, what we're going to see is things like Ravnica where you have WotC bringing out the main product and then everyone else feeding into that main product.

It's a really interesting way to combat fragmentation of the fanbase. If the 3pp are directly latching onto WotC products the way they are, it keeps everyone much closer together and allows a LOT more cross pollination.

It is kind of astounding that every book is still in print.

Parmandur · Nov 28, 2018

Jester David said:
Because hit movies and TV shows have significantly increased the sales of comic books?

Could be sales would have really tanked without big movies.

ad_hoc · Nov 28, 2018

robus said:
I wouldn’t put sci-fi in the same genre as D&D. But yeah if they can make it a fun romp like that or Pirates of the Caribbean it’ll be good. But those were both surprise hits elevated by great casting. Fingers crossed I guess...

It really is the same. The background is different but the genre is the same. The Guardians of the Galaxy are a party of super heroes who go on a quest to try to get a MacGuffin in order to stop a moustache twirling villain. D&D characters are essentially super heroes. A D&D movie needs a strong ensemble. It doesn't matter if the plot is bare bones.

Space movies often don't work because there is no grounding. It's just a bunch of lasers with cardboard characters. The same is true of fantasy. Guardians worked because it was about the party of heroes and their interactions with each other.

Pirates is the wrong way to go.

Li Shenron · Nov 28, 2018

Mercurius said:
This was vaguely inspired by the adventure saturation and What Does The Game Need Now? threads. The basic question is this: What now for 5E, and has it reached "peak edition?"

Think of the concept of "peak oil" and apply it to a D&D edition. I am not talking about output of production as much as the arc of the edition as a whole. It is that point beyond which everything is a general trend of inevitable decline...maybe not quickly, but it is the high-point. You could also look at professional athletes and pin-point the year in which that player was at his or her very best. Maybe there were ups and downs after, and certainly many athletes have multiple peaks interspersed by valleys. But many also have a highest peak.

So have we reached peak edition with 5E, or is the best still to come? It has now been 4 years and 4 months since the Starter Set came out in July of 2014; by comparison, here is where previous editions were at 4.33 years in:

No.

You are making a mistake: you are basing your comparison on time alone, while the publishing pace of 5e is a lot slower. This is a bit like comparing a bicycle ride with someone else who took the same trip by car in one hour, and after half an hour wondering if you (with the bike) should be already at 50% of the journey.

WotC can of course decide to kill the edition and start another any time for financial reasons, but as far as "production output" 5e is still far from jumping the shark.

Sadras · Nov 28, 2018

robus said:
I wouldn’t put sci-fi in the same genre as D&D. But yeah if they can make it a fun romp like that or Pirates of the Caribbean it’ll be good. But those were both surprise hits elevated by great casting. Fingers crossed I guess...

I'm thinking something along the lines of a mystery, such as MiBG, where the party arrives in town and becomes unwitting heroes before being entangled into the political machinations of the various groups vying for power...

The other option would be to be a travel/exploratory adventure, fantastical sites, terrifying monsters...that is hard to pull off. Stardust and PotC kept it (magic/fantastical) low-key which worked.

Of course, they could go all out - Sigil and take it from there - very much Guardians of the Galaxy style.