Paizo To Make Kingmaker Bestiary... For D&D 5E!

kenmarable · May 6, 2019

Jester David said:
Gut feeling.
Personal anecdotal evidence.
I think people are reaching saturation. I need maybe one good monster book. I think one more subclass book is needed. Maybe the psion. And I have more adventures that I need. After that, there’s little they can publish to improvise my game.
Meanwhile, I think most of the people who would play and are interested and been exposed already. New player acquisition is going to slow down.

Plus, 2017 was a huge year and 2018 was even better. Can 2019 be even better? Or just the same as things plateau?

If 2018 was the peak, then 2019 will be close to what 2017 was. And 2017 was a huge year. And since 2014 was a string year too, 2022 will still be decent sales. And the game could go to 2024 before they really need to have a new edition.
And that’s assuming the decline is as sharp as the rise. It will likely be slower.

My personal anecdotal evidence is that new player acquisition is still increasing. I am actually at the point where there's more groups available to me than I have time for! And I'm hearing from plenty of others in the community that they keep finding new people to recruit who are becoming regular gamers. Colleges and high schools are constantly growing, many starting to have official clubs - and there's always fresh bodies every year there. Within the Critical Role fandom alone I have lost track of the number of tweets and posts I see pretty much daily saying "I only started playing a few months ago, and tonight is my first time DMing! Wish me luck!" Every week or two I see someone excited for their first game with their kids, or who haven't played since AD&D and are getting back into it now.

Anecdotally, I have seen zero evidence that player acquisition has slowed at all and plenty of evidence to the contrary. That's the problem with anecdotal evidence - it's far too limited to be able to draw any general conclusions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Plus, others in my groups and myself still waiting for WotC to start producing the books we are most interested in. Only recently have they started moving beyond the safe, classic stuff and into the more interesting portion of the edition, in our opinions. And one thing I have noticed in a lot of the new players is that they seem to gravitate far more towards the non-traditional stuff than I have seen in any past edition. Far fewer Tolkein and Drizzt inspired-fantasy and more "Here's my tiefling archfey warlock baker who travels the world looking for the best cupcake ingredients with their pseudodragon familiar who's such a good boi!"

It is definitely an interesting time for D&D right now, and I can easily see it keep growing, especially if it at least partially caters to the less traditional fantasy and more quirky young crowd.

Jester David · May 6, 2019

ShinHakkaider said:
This AP has gone out of print RECENTLY. As within the last year or so.

It originally came out in...wait for it...2010.

Gonna nitpick here. The first volumes of the AP went out of print in 2013. I snatched up one of the last few copies of the AP back then. It and Skull & Shackles were the APs that went OOP surprisingly fast, and have been high on the fan speculation as being future reprints since.
But the later volumes (which always sell more slowly) might have just recently sold out...

ShinHakkaider · May 6, 2019

Hussar said:
Umm, revisionist? Stranger things came out two years AFTER the release of 5e. At a point where 5e was already rocketing up the ranks of best selling edition. If Stranger Things and online streaming was a critical part of the popularity of 5e, how do you explain 5e's popularity before those things were released?

The thing is, while I disagree with that d00d on more than a few things? I dont think that he's entirely WRONG about this part.

5E WAS popular within the TTRPG community in those two years. As an alternative to both 4E and the crunchier games like Pathfinder. People who abandoned D&D during 4E returned to play this easier, simpler game.

But OUTSIDE of the TTRPG community is where STRANGER THINGS and CRITICAL ROLE were most influential and drew in people who were unaware that TTRPG's were still a thing. Even better, with CRITICAL ROLE they were able to actually SEE what a TTRPG WAS or HOW IT COULD BE. It's one thing to explain to a person who is completely unfamiliar with RPG's how the game is played. But when they are able to go on youtube and watch an episode and have it click with them and then maybe even have them go "Well I want to play or run a game like THAT." That is what I think boosted the popularity of D&D 5E into the stratisphere.

I knew that 5E was popular when around a year or two ago I was in Midtown Comics in Times Square and overheard not one but TWO different groups of people talking about their D&D groups in relation to CRITICAL ROLE.

Hell the only reason I have the 5E core books is because of CRITICAL ROLE. I'm a pretty dedicated Pathfinder GM but I had to pickup the books becasue I wanted to know the rules.

.

Jester David · May 6, 2019

Hussar said:
Fair enough. My gut tells me all sorts of things. Stupid gut.

Let's say you're right and 2019 is the plateau year, but, the decline is half the speed of the rise. Not terribly unreasonable I think, since there's been no sign whatsoever that sales of core books have slacked off at all. The core three are all still about the same place on the Amazon sales lists that they've been for a few years now.

That means that we'd be hitting new edition territory ten years from now. That's a pretty healthy horse to hitch a wagon to in the gaming industry.

And, if Paizo plays its cards right, it could hoover up those that don't want to switch to a new edition same as it did from 3e to 4e.

That seems reasonable.
But as the game starts its slow wind down, the first products to see the effects will be 3rd Party stuff, as people will still be more likely to buy official books.

But, yeah, there's still money to be made and books to sell for many years. I'm not worried about a new edition any time soon. Heck, before replying I was just touching base with a 3rd Party publisher to edit a book that has a successful Kickstarter that made tens of thousands. So 3PP aren't in danger any time soon.

kenmarable said:
My personal anecdotal evidence is that new player acquisition is still increasing. I am actually at the point where there's more groups available to me than I have time for! And I'm hearing from plenty of others in the community that they keep finding new people to recruit who are becoming regular gamers. Colleges and high schools are constantly growing, many starting to have official clubs - and there's always fresh bodies every year there. Within the Critical Role fandom alone I have lost track of the number of tweets and posts I see pretty much daily saying "I only started playing a few months ago, and tonight is my first time DMing! Wish me luck!" Every week or two I see someone excited for their first game with their kids, or who haven't played since AD&D and are getting back into it now.

Anecdotally, I have seen zero evidence that player acquisition has slowed at all and plenty of evidence to the contrary. That's the problem with anecdotal evidence - it's far too limited to be able to draw any general conclusions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There's always going to be new players. It's never going to stop entirely.
Keep in mind that there was an efftonne of new players in 2017 and 2018. So even if new player acquisition ramped right down... there'd still be a LOT of new players coming in.

It could have peaked last year. Or it could peak this year or next. But it feels like they should run out of the massive wave of newcomers sooner or later. There's only so many geek aligned people who don't already play in the world...

Aldarc · May 6, 2019

CapnZapp said:
Not commenting on the pre or post 3E problem; just making sure we're both including Pathfinder (1) in the group of games with the "3E problem", yeah?

Yes, though the degree to which it is a "problem" varies from person to person and group to group. Some people have voiced support for the 3E style of NPC generation because it contributes to their sense of simulationism since it means that NPCs and PCs are using the same rules. I am not suggesting that this is a majority opinion, but I do think that you need to be aware that your assessments are not universally held. The success of 5e has far more going for it than a reductionism of GM prep time and "fixing" LFQW.

CapnZapp said:
Sorry I don't understand why bringing up this (or that 4E has solved a particular problem) is relevant.

The game that matters is 5E. And, just possibly if Paizo plays their cards right, Pathfinder 2.

5E is not necessarily the golden child for "lessons learned" from 3E (or past editions) or the only source of inspiration that should matter to Paizo, because IMHO some D&D inspired games perform better in certain areas at what 5E claims to do. Some OSR games, for example, have far less GM prep work required than 5E. So if average GM prep time is important, should I be learning from 5E or instead from some other system that has lower prep time than 5E?

This is one of my priniciple problems. Yes, I understand that 5e is the 800 lb. gorilla, but that does not mean that we should presume that just because 5E does a thing that others must do likewise or that 5e does it best.

This is not the argument you think it is.

(Of course they don't, they're playing a game where it is fixed!

If they were to switch to 3.5 say they would very much become very aware and start to care very quickly!)

And this is far less of an argument than you think it is since you are fundamentally begging the question. Having played PF1 and 3E along with the same groups playing 5E, I can safely say that not everyone (or even most) cares about LFQW the way that most people who visit this forum might and even less than those who post on this forum might. Forums tend to amplify issues. And your reasoning presumes that the issue is "fixed" just because you find its solution satisfying. Consider alternatively that Starfinder also lessened LFQW by reducing spells to a max of 6th level (and mundanes with wonderous technology) but it does not have the concentration rule you find satisfying from 5E.

CapnZapp said:
What do you consider is Pathfinder 2s niche then? They aren't making the game because people need to play a game named Pathfinder after all...

What I'm wondering is if you see a larger niche elsewhere? (If you don't, meaning Paizo is doomed regardless that's fair enough)

I'm not saying PF2 should or need to be too similar to 5E. I'm saying 5E brings certain concepts to the table that PF2 would do well to not go back on.

I would consider looking at statements made by Paizo, including this one made by Jason Bulmahn in another thread about a similar subject:

Jason Bulmahn said:
we looked to our core strengths as a game engine when making the final version of 2nd ed, while also trying to smooth out the rough spots. We want to make sure that you can use 2nd to tell the same stories that we told in 1st, but we want a game that is smoother to run and easier to learn. A lot of that comes from finding better ways to manage characters (smoother, intuitive leveling) and lightening the load on GMs (easy monster and NPC design, robust encounter building tools), but we also wanted to make sure that the game has a deep amount of customization. Some of this came to light in the playtest, but it did not get the level of polish I wanted until the final version. I am very happy with where we are right now.

jayoungr · May 6, 2019

ShinHakkaider said:
Anyway I can see how Paizo supporting 5E instead of continuing to support 1E is seen as a betrayal of sorts.

It shouldn't be. I mean, look at Troll Lord Games--they produce adventures and setting books for both D&D 5E and their own Castles and Crusades game. With PDF and POD, the only real sunk cost is the time and effort to produce the two versions; it's not like they have to commit to a set print run for either product.

billd91 · May 6, 2019

Jharet said:
After waiting for years for a Kingmaker collected edition for Pathfinder, it is a bit of a slap in the face to fans to see it offered to 5E players.

Here's an example of the voice of entitlement. You are not entitled to a collected edition of Kingmaker because you have supported PF and Paizo. The property is theirs to use as they see fit - and if that use is to promote their second edition of PF and draw in some sales from 5e players, more power to them. I hope they're wildly successful. I know I'm going to check it out for 2 reasons - 1) I'm a long time gamer who feels 5e comes closest to the D&D I prefer and would love to have KM resources for it, and 2) because I'm curious about 2e but a little wary and this might be a good way to develop my connection to it.

epithet · May 6, 2019

Paizo just wants to sell books, I don't think it matters too much which of their books they're selling. Their books fall into 3 broad categories: system, setting, and adventure. The market for the system books (Pathfinder 1 & 2) is somewhat limited, while the market for the setting and adventure books is potentially as large as the D&D market.

Pathfinder's Golarion is, in my opinion, a much better setting than the Forgotten Realms. The adventures published for the setting seem to be at least as good as the stuff coming out for D&D, and I've seen plenty of comments suggesting they're quite a bit better. It seems like a no-brainer, to me, for Paizo to publish a 5e Golarion setting book with some new races, classes, and monsters, followed by 5e versions of their most popular adventure paths. Hell, they can even Kickstart it.

Going forward, if their 5e stuff sells well (which I can't imagine it wouldn't) it makes sense for future adventures to be published for PF and 5e, both. Even if the 5e version sells 4 times as many copies, they need to keep supporting the PF game system for the inevitable day when interest in D&D starts to slack off again. This is apparently the conclusion that Monte Cook Games came to, because they recently Kickstarted the Arcana of the Ancients, which is a bid to repackage Numenera material for the 5e crowd. That campaign got half a million dollars for books that, for the most part, re-work existing material to appeal to a larger audience.

The simple reality of the RPG market seems to be that D&D is the center around which the hobby orbits. Whether its a sun that radiates life to its satellites or a black hole that gobbles up everything else is debatable, but for now it seems like the best strategy might be to tuck in as the remora to the D&D shark, or the egret to the D&D buffalo. If Paizo can get a significant number of D&D players to run campaigns in Golarion, becoming familiar with the world and pantheon and considering it their setting of choice, then Paizo wins, regardless of what system those campaigns are using.

billd91 · May 6, 2019

Jester David said:
Gonna nitpick here. The first volumes of the AP went out of print in 2013. I snatched up one of the last few copies of the AP back then. It and Skull & Shackles were the APs that went OOP surprisingly fast, and have been high on the fan speculation as being future reprints since.
But the later volumes (which always sell more slowly) might have just recently sold out...

That assumes they were actually reprinted - but Paizo generally doesn't reprint their APs. They may have been out of stock by then, though. Does anybody know for sure whether Kingmaker actually got reprinted?

kenmarable · May 6, 2019

Jester David said:
There's always going to be new players. It's never going to stop entirely.
Keep in mind that there was an efftonne of new players in 2017 and 2018. So even if new player acquisition ramped right down... there'd still be a LOT of new players coming in.

It could have peaked last year. Or it could peak this year or next. But it feels like they should run out of the massive wave of newcomers sooner or later. There's only so many geek aligned people who don't already play in the world...

Well, obviously it's going to peak sometime, there's only so many human beings.

But "geek aligned" is now mainstream pop culture. A movie about freaking *Thanos and the Infinity Stones* of all things just made $2 billion in a couple weeks.

Also, if we are discussing anecdotal evidence, the past 6 months I have seen more new players than in the 6 months before that which was more than the 6 months before that, and so on. I expect the next 6 months to have more new players than the past 6 months. Sure, there were a ridiculous number of new players in 2017 and 2018, but from what I have seen, new player acquisition is still accelerating, not peaking or slowing down at all. So there may very well be an even ridculouser number of new players in 2019, and possibly even 2020.

So *my* gut feeling is that 5e has quite a ways to go before it peaks.

But either way, it's just our gut feelings and anecdotal evidence pointing in opposite directions. Neither of which is any actual evidence of the reality of the situation.