I like the release of actual sales figures for the Starter Set. 126,000 in North America in 2014 (from the July release); 306,000 in North America in 2018. I wonder what we can extrapolate from that!
When was this, and how many of the 40 million in question did they constitute?Not in my experience. Vast majority of the gamers I know started with zero experience as players or DM.
As is typical on the boards, one person's experience is completely at odds with another's. ::shrug::Certain people were interested in DMing, others weren’t. So the DMs just learned as they went. Whether they started D&D with BECMI, 2e, 3e, or 5e, every DM I know started as a DM, not as a player first. Whether someone is regularly a DM or a player, seems to have more to do with personality types than level of experience.
Pernicious, eh?
Players are fundamentally lazier than DMs. There is far less work to do as a player. There are fewer responsibilities, especially between sessions.
When was this, and how many of the 40 million in question did they constitute?
As is typical on the boards, one person's experience is completely at odds with another's. ::shrug::
The expectation that DMs acquire long experience through play I first first saw articulated by Gygax in the 1e DMG (it might've been in 0e somewhere, or in a Dragon or Strategic Review article, first - heck, I might be confusing Sorcerer's Scroll with the DMG, he wrote both with much the same tone & authority).Exactly my point. Just when there’s a universal claim made like what “has always been,” there’s often plenty of experience to the contrary.
Stewart says that is their estimate: they have accurate sales data, and likely have a statistical model based on observation as to how many people are playing per unit sold, on average.
At the number of sales they appear to be dealing with, this is probably quite accurate within an unknown Tonya margin of error: there may be less than 40 million, there be more, but either way it is probably not far off.
That’s a fair assumption, I think. I’m just curious about their model.
I can get behind that logic. It just feels like such a huge number, even with the current popularity of D&D, that I am immediately sceptical.
Regardless, I’m very pleased that so many people are playing!