Warpiglet
Adventurer
I ran a comparison of wizard versus warlock spellcasting for a friend. The interesting thing is that if you add up total number of spell levels available (including Arcane Recovery, Spell Mastery, Mystic Arcanum and Eldritch Master), assuming the design assumption of 2 short rests per day, the totals for the two classes are very comparable. Some levels wizard is higher, some levels warlock is higher, but overall neither is higher. Contrary to popular belief, warlock really is designed as a full caster. Of course there are differences. The wizard gets more low-level spells; the warlock gets more higher level spells. The wizard eventually gets and extra 6th and 7th level spell; the warlock doesn't. But if you compare a Pact of the Tome (which I did, as it is the most comparable) the warlock ends up with more and more flexible cantrips and rituals, as well some more free at-wills through their invocations, and a better at-will attack. The wizard gets more spells prepared (though the other ways that a (particularly Pact of the Tome) warlock gets access to spells actually can balance that out too), and a way better spell list. Their subclasses are comparable in power so I didn't bother taking them into account. Other than the different yet equivalent in power in spell recovery mechanics, the differences amount to wizard = better spell selection; warlock = more at-will magic, better at-will attack, and better HD and armaments.
Which tells me that warlock could probably actually be balanced with wizard even if I nerf Agonizing Blast to how it was probably initially intended as only applying to one roll.
Of course, if the number of short rests you get in an adventuring day differs significantly from the design assumption of two, the balance becomes less equivalent, but that's true of many classes.
Cool analysis. I still say most of my themes are one invocation short! But that is not a big quibble. The big idea you present is that the warlock actually can use some magic while adventuring (more than twice a day!) and that was always my gut feeling about it. It is as you say distributed quite differently.
What I will say is this: without pact of the tome, the utility magic is harder to come by. I am into comprehend languages, detect magic, and so on. It is really a steep price to pay if you have to burn a 5th level slot for any of those functions. Of course maybe the warlock is just meant to do less of that; I can understand if that is the intent. This coupled with a lack of rituals without a feat is rough too.
In my current case, I am really thinking about adding a couple of 1st level slots via multi classing...