Another nice one is if you also pick up Warcaster, and... some way to be less squishy (AT maybe?).
Does it though?
Booming Blade does +3.315 more damage if the extra damage triggers every time that you hit.
The break even point is if you trigger the damage 38.61% of the time (not even factoring in the action denial possibilities).
So unless Booming Blade triggers less than 38.61% of the time, Booming Blade provides higher DPR for Swashbucklers on average.
(I kinda want to work out a build that uses Shield Master to guarantee they'd have to move to make an effective attack.)
EDIT: I'm also curious about the math behind your 38.61% threshold. By my own computations, the break-even point is closer to 33.25%. That's the point at which Booming Blade comes out ahead in terms of average DPR across all levels.
By the way, your TWF Barb 2 / Fighter [Champion] 5 / Rogue [Swashbuckler] 13 crit-fishing build is the gold standard, as far as I'm concerned, in terms of cases where TWF actually makes sense.
Where's the synergy between crit-fishing and TWF?
I get 36.8%. Guessing the 38.6 was a typo.
Math:
At level 5, the rider does an average 9 damage. Without the rider, TWF is ahead by 3.315. The average rider damage is (probability) * (rider damage), i.e., 9 * p. Set 9 * p = 3.315 to get p = 0.368.
Simply put, more attacks means more chances to crit.
I see. I am multiplying the frequency with which we expect the rider to trigger by the average rider damage at each level and adding that to the Booming Blade DPR at each level. I am then adjusting the frequency with which we expect the rider to trigger until the average DPR across all levels for Booming Blade exceeds that of TWF.
It's not the break even point though if you're counting cases where the leader goes back and forth as you level as favoring TWF. In any case, this is splitting hairs. I agree with you that the rider will go off less than 1/3 of the time.
EDIT: I may have misunderstood you. I thought you were saying that BB had to exceed TWF at every level, but now I think maybe you were saying that you averaged across levels. That's at least not biased, but I don't think it makes sense to average over levels. For one thing, that assumes that you have the same amount of play time at every level, which isn't really reasonable. For another, the value of one point of damage means something very different at a high level compared to a low one (not to mention the variable value of the control effect and the variable value of a bonus action).