This is absolutely right IMO - Paizo will be fracturing their player base with this move. I don't say that out of malice - every edition change leaves a portion of the players of the old edition behind. 1e to 2e had holdouts. 2e to 3e had holdouts. 3e to 4e had enough holdouts that Paizo was able to create Pathfinder and capture enough of those 3e holdouts to fund an entire game line for multiple years, but there are still groups that play 3e. PF1 to PF2 will have holdouts.
Hell even 3.0 to 3.5 had its share of holdouts, and that wasn't even a full edition change. The big threat that Paizo has is making a game that causes their own entrenched player base to decide that it's time to jump off - much like during the 3e to 4e change for D&D. And in the short term there doesn't even really need to be an alternative for them to jump to - with the amount of Pathfinder 1e material available currently and the ability to buy old edition material digitally, you could run campaigns for years without needing a new adventure path or sourcebook. If you've invested in a heavy library of material for Pathfinder and haven't worked your way through most of it yet, then the new edition is going to have to solve some deep problems you've had with the system for you to feel like you need to jump ship.
I think the risk is even higher for Pathfinder than for other games - Pathfinder started life as the game for people who didn't want to change editions. Much of that original audience is still there. Selling an audience like that on big changes in an edition switch is not a job I'd want to have myself.
