4 years of 5E on Amazon: same old same old

Jester David said:

Fine. We'll do this. Again.
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Bah. Trying to counter nostalgia(?) with "numbers" and "facts".

I don't see how the 80s D&D craze can compete. The exposure and age range, not to mention international sales makes a huge difference. Way back when, the oldest players were by and large college age. Now that generation has grown up and are playing with their kids along with a whole new generation that grew up with fantasy games inspired by D&D as well movies like LOTR and Harry Potter.

Fantasy (and super hero) movies are more popular than ever. There's a backlash against all gaming being online. I would say that openly acknowledging that you're a geek is more popular now than it ever was. Add in accessibility and awareness from podcasts/web series like Critical Role and dramatically larger numbers don't surprise me at all.

Dragon Heist has climbed up to #69 overall. Still one week out from release.

PHB still leads at #41.

https://camelcamelcamel.com/Waterdeep-Dragon-Heist-HC-Adventure/product/0786966254?active=sales_rank

I play DnD mini, rackham confrontation, DnD 4.0,
Finally I play and popular game. cheers!

Think I did my bit recently, bought 8 items, 5 of them on Amazon.

Tales From the Yawning Portal
Volos Guide to Monsters
DM Screen Reincarnated.
Tomb of Annhilation
Mordenkainens Guide to the Multiverse

Tome of Beasts
Heroes of Midgard
World of Midgard.

Mistwell said:

It's that PLUS Amazon PLUS Barnes and Noble PLUS Walmart (etc.) sales. These are just retail sales + Kickstarter, with no online sales included, which is the bulk of 5e sales. Admit it - we're at peak. It's not even close. We've well exceeded 1983.

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I doubt it. TSR was at 100 million in 1992 and that was WELL after the peak of the Fad of AD&D. Tell me when the RPG market (much less the D&D market) gets to 100 million at the minimum...then we'll talk.

It was around 91 million in 1991.

It was still available in department stores at that time. I have seen D&D in Bookstores, and occasionally other places, but not a regular at department stores, or even Walmart National retail itself (though other WotC things are sellers there on national markets).

People want SOOOOO bad for the glory days to be exceeded...that they'll hope for anything. Wonder why.

(1990 dollars today would be close to 200 million if we accord for inflation).

Of course, that was RIGHT before the crash (and a massive and disastrous crash it was, imagine going from near 100 million a year to -4 or -5 million...that lets the winds out of the sails REAL QUICK).

I think people should be happy that 5e is doing the best D&D has ever done for the past 20 YEARS. We don't have to try to compare ourselves to a fad that was probably as big as any fad has ever been from 35 years ago...when we have enough to be proud and happy about right now just in comparison to the LAST two DECADES!!!

It's like trying to say...hey...comic books are doing better now than ever before (hint, they aren't, they aren't even close to the peak numbers they used to sell), when in truth it's a totally different thing and market. The MOVIES and hence the companies are making MORE than ever before, even if the fad of buying comic books has decreased greatly.

Same with 5e. Why compare something from 30 years ago when the success compared to 3e and 4e (the new wave of RPGs at the turn of the millennium) is more than enough to probably satisfy the need to show success. Heck, most of the RPG gamers today probably don't actually really recall (at oldest, most were in their teens) the AD&D years or even things before that. My generation which was alive and kicking and running the hobby back then have mostly died out or are in nursing homes these days. Why try to beat us, when most of you can't even recall it.

Instead, be impressed that you've beat yourselves and your own sales records with the New Era of RPGs that started with 3e (and that was 18 years ago now...that's actually quite a while).

People have SHORT memories.

GreyLord said:

I doubt it. TSR was at 100 million in 1992 and that was WELL after the peak of the Fad of AD&D. Tell me when the RPG market (much less the D&D market) gets to 100 million at the minimum...then we'll talk.

It was around 91 million in 1991.

It was still available in department stores at that time. I have seen D&D in Bookstores, and occasionally other places, but not a regular at department stores, or even Walmart National retail itself (though other WotC things are sellers there on national markets).

People want SOOOOO bad for the glory days to be exceeded...that they'll hope for anything. Wonder why.

(1990 dollars today would be close to 200 million if we accord for inflation).

Of course, that was RIGHT before the crash (and a massive and disastrous crash it was, imagine going from near 100 million a year to -4 or -5 million...that lets the winds out of the sails REAL QUICK).

I think people should be happy that 5e is doing the best D&D has ever done for the past 20 YEARS. We don't have to try to compare ourselves to a fad that was probably as big as any fad has ever been from 35 years ago...when we have enough to be proud and happy about right now just in comparison to the LAST two DECADES!!!

It's like trying to say...hey...comic books are doing better now than ever before (hint, they aren't, they aren't even close to the peak numbers they used to sell), when in truth it's a totally different thing and market. The MOVIES and hence the companies are making MORE than ever before, even if the fad of buying comic books has decreased greatly.

Same with 5e. Why compare something from 30 years ago when the success compared to 3e and 4e (the new wave of RPGs at the turn of the millennium) is more than enough to probably satisfy the need to show success. Heck, most of the RPG gamers today probably don't actually really recall (at oldest, most were in their teens) the AD&D years or even things before that. My generation which was alive and kicking and running the hobby back then have mostly died out or are in nursing homes these days. Why try to beat us, when most of you can't even recall it.

Instead, be impressed that you've beat yourselves and your own sales records with the New Era of RPGs that started with 3e (and that was 18 years ago now...that's actually quite a while).

People have SHORT memories.

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I'd love a citation for anything you just said. Because we've discussed all these elements before numerous times over many years, and what you just said doesn't match what I've seen here. Also, your inflation calculator is not accurate either. But, let's just start with all the numbers you just mentioned. Also, note that WOTC's annual revenue is well more than $200M right now by the way (MtG alone has a market cap of more than double that number right now).

Zardnaar said:

Only if they are using the same criteria estimating players. That's why I think something comparable such as core books sales (or equivalent) is a reasonable metric.

I don't think he is lying but idk what metric he is using. We had 5 PHB for example with 6 players so idk how they estimate number of players.

The main thing I am sceptical is peak D&D adjusted for inflation is bigger than the entire rpg market now. Peak D&D only lasted a year or to so overall yeah 5E might be bigger but some people are claiming now is peak D&D. Overall it might be but I don't see how it is unless they are using different metrics.

I'm talking about peak golden age here which was 1983. WotC used to have over 20 million on their site while ex TSR employees have said 23 to 27 million. That's the numbers I was using and you can plug them into inflation calculators.

So if they say D&D is doing better than ever and have made 30 million they're not lying as such.

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A lot of it is guess work. I have hard numbers for what you quote above (23 to 27 million).

That said, GUESSTIMATES put it far above that.

We know from hard figures put out that it was around 90 million in 1990 and 91, and around 100 million for a short while after that (and then boom, we don't talk about how bad that got after it all came crashing down...quick too).

Going backwards, I'm pretty certain with the market penetration and how far it had reached, there were more sales and more players in the early 80s during the fad of AD&D. In 1982-1985 it was crazy.

Estimates of 25 million AD&D gamers during the time period (well AD&D and D&D). We know it was enough for Gary to go play with the big guys in Hollywood and play and pay at their level (NOT CHEAP) for a little bit. His expenses weren't even the ones that were hurting the company.

I'd guess that TSR in the early 80s would have been making 50 to 60 million at least (120 to 180 million in our dollars) and perhaps upwards of 100 to 150 million. HOWEVER, a LOT of that was in soft money that was being criminally (but we can't prove it) manipulated by some pretty intense individuals who were spending it like play monopoly money (and almost caused TSR to crash due to mismanagement, long before it went bankrupt ten years later). In otherwords, it's money that never found it's way to the books or filings. It makes it untrackable today (unless we suddenly unhouse a treasure trove of documents for the IRS to finally prosecute) and why it gets so hard and murky to know just how much TSR under Gygax and the Blooms made, how many copies were actually sold of the original PHB and ensuing printings, and how it was actually doing.

If it followed standard procedures of the 2e PHB and we had 100K printruns, that would mean we have at least 1.7 million copies of the 1e PHB that were printed (but not necessarily sold).

Modules on the otherhand had FAR SMALLER printings (some being less than 1000). Some modules sold a gazillion copies (well, to exceed that of 100K copies) during the fad. 20K wasn't odd in the early 80s. Later on, during the 90s you may be lucky to sell 10K copies. This is why I think it is almost definite that 1e outsold 2e in every way, shape, and fashion. The problem, we don't have the hard numbers to back it up except extrapolation and guesswork.

Without the hard records though, it makes it hard to make many types of claims that people seem to want to make in this thread on both sides of the equation.

Mistwell said:

I'd love a citation for anything you just said. Because we've discussed all these elements before numerous times over many years, and what you just said doesn't match what I've seen here. Also, your inflation calculator is not accurate either. But, let's just start with all the numbers you just mentioned.

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How about, I saw numbers for the 90s (anything in the 80s IS a guestimate on my part).

But, really don't care. The hard numbers WERE published in at least one or two magazine articles in reference to the early 90s, but I cannot remember who the guys who did the interview for the articles were. It was a magazine, but unsure which one it was. I think it was a hobby magazine of some sort where they were given the numbers from the department. It should be noted though, those numbers (I believe) were twisted, so that's gross, NOT NET (big difference).

Numbers of the 23 and 27 were from TSR employees at the time. Not the bosses though.

Most everything else is guesswork. Acaeum has some of the stuff and guess work if you want to see what they have there (I haven't in recent years...sorry...so no hard source on that either).

PS: For inflation, it's a VERY rough estimate on my part based on the idea that the value of exchange doubles every 20 years. So, yeah, could be off as it's a very rough estimate on my part.

But, let's just start with all the numbers you just mentioned. Also, note that WOTC's annual revenue is well more than $200M right now by the way (MtG alone has a market cap of more than double that number right now).

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You added this in, and don't have a quarrel with that. I don't even have a problem with it.

In truth, most of the stuff I don't have a quarrel with until people start making crazy claims about D&D being more prominent and widespread today than it was in the early 80s.

Even with the sales numbers I gave for the early 90s, and D&D still being in normal stores rather the simply the bookstores and specialty stores it is today, I wouldn't have a problem with someone claiming D&D is bigger today than it was in the 90s and maybe bigger than 2e.

It's when they try to claim D&D is bigger now than the 80s without really anything we can back it up on. I don't think it was, and have personal estimates to say it wasn't, but right now as far as hard numbers, I don't think we have enough to say whether it really is or isn't.

With hard numbers though...sure I can believe WotC is making a bucket load of money (MtG regularly makes an appearance in the company meetings and in the stock calls).

TSR didn't have MtG (or some of the other properties WotC has) and wasn't leveraging them. We are comparing the RPG department (and if we want to stretch, the book sales departments).

WotC was making more with MtG than TSR was with D&D by the mid 90s (and by a massive amount too!). That it is still bigger should surprise..just about...

No one?

The wikipedia thread has some data in it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSR_(company)

We know that the 5e PHB has now far outsold 4e and 3.5. 3e was only in print a few years and there is no way they would have dropped it if it had sustained sales in the way that 5e has. That brings us back to AD&D

TSR almost went bankrupt multiple times in the 1e and 2e eras. But it was badly managed. We know that 2e PHB did not sale as well as the 1e one, nor, from what I have seen the 3e one. That would then put it below 5e.

As for TSR revenue in the 2e era, thats an entirely different story. They had several releases every month for D&D, month in and month out. They also sold other games.

So they had some revenue. They weren't especially profitable, did not treat their employees very well, and released a lot of material that has long been forgotten (several releases every month). They ultimately alienated a large part of their own fan base. But sure, they had some revenue.