PF2 seems to be struggling to convert over PF1E fans.
I would have a different hypothesis.
The Foundry effect. (Foundry Site)
PF1 continues its steady declines in usage share on Roll20. In the previous quarters you can see PF2 slowly converting PF1 games. The lost PF2 games in Q4 2020 either
don't exist or they are elsewhere.
ORR group data 2019-2020
| Year | Quarter | 2nd | 1st | Total |
| 2019 | Q2 | | 6.46% | 6.46% |
| 2019 | Q3 | 0.57% | 5.72% | 6.29% |
| 2019 | Q4 | 1.13% | 4.97% | 6.10% |
| 2020 | Q1 | 1.23% | 4.49% | 5.72% |
| 2020 | Q2 | 1.53% | 4.09% | 5.62% |
| 2020 | Q3 | 1.83% | 3.87% | 5.70% |
| 2020 | Q4 | 1.58% | 3.69% | 5.27% |
I think they are elsewhere.
If the loss was due to PF2 people going back to PF1 then total number of PF games would go up, it is down by 0.43% at 5.27%. And they didn't go in mass to D&D5, its share is also lower this quarter (53.26% to 52.90%, 0.36% loss for D&D 5 vs 0.25% loss for PF2)
It is anecdotal, but in the 3 groups I play/DM,
everyone who tried PF2 is a convert. We run 4 games in the 3 groups and in the next months 3 of them are going to be PF2. The last one is an ongoing D&D 5e Ravenloft campaign. The only critics I have heard about PF2 is that the mechanics are too tight and don't allow you to create "super" build like the previous systems (3.5/PF1/5e) and that spell casters are not gods...
Apparently Roll20 is not the recommended online platform for PF2, which I believe is Fantasy Grounds.
The most common answer to people looking for a VTT for PF2 by the community is
Foundry. The level of integration of the PF2 ruleset is above anything else at this time. There is even a module that will import your official adventure path PDF in your world. Add to this all the generic Foundry add-ons and you have a Roll20 killer for a PF2 group.
Let's not forget they have access to all the rules, class features, spells, monsters, magic items for free from the SRD. (There is no Paizo paywall for data unless you want to resale it. If you are not familiar with it :
Archives of Nethys)
{Anecdotal} I have transferred the two PF2 campaigns I run from my
paying Roll20 account to Foundry. There is a learning curve, but like the transition to PF2, everyone is really impressed.
