Chance to hit decreases as you level

[Nail]

So my whole point for doing this was that I wanted to find out if you really needed to min-max a character to have a chance to hit. The combat focus of 4e makes it a simple answer. Yes, you need a maxed primary attack stat to have a chance in hell of hitting anything.

You're fixated on the wrong number, I'm afraid.

I've run the numbers too, and calculated DPR and # of Rounds to Kill an Average Monster. Remember, it's not enough to calculate your chance of hitting. The important bit is to calculate your average damage per round, and how that interacts with monster hps.

It is absolutely true that as you level up in the Heroic tier, it takes longer to kill monsters. No question. A skirmisher (an "average monster") can be killed by 1 PC in:
~3 rds at level 1
~6 rds at level 5
~9 rds at level 10

After level 10 the graph jumps around a lot (between 8 and 12 rounds), with a big drop in "Rounds to Kill" at 11th and 21st. It's not at all clear that there's a continuing upward trend all the way to 30th.

...and NONE of that takes into acount the effects of other party members (powers, OAs, Combat Advantage, etc).

 

[Lakoda]

I know it far from an accurate way to model DPR and time to kill, but that's not really what I wanted. The question I was really getting at was how can I take a Dex Rogue who is supposed to be hitting and killing and if they make a small investment in Str (like maybe a 12 or 13) worthwhile when it comes to basic melee attacks. If they never increase the attribute after that I wanted to find out how much it would impact them later one. I was not expecting to find that even if they updated it at every opportunity that by 30 they wouldn't have a chance in hell.

I know there are some super power bonuses out there but the Dex rogue in my party was/is getting very down on herself because the Warlords extra attacks never to anything. The warlord grants an extra basic melee to the rogue and then she misses. Yes, the easy answer is for the warlord to stop waste the basic melee attack but they have a certain tactic they want to do and I want to find a way for them to have fun with it.

Running the numbers, the difference seems to flatten out if you provide a +2 at 11 and at 21. I am thinking of building some weapon finesse feat(s) that will provide the melee basic attack bonus for Dex meleers. I already all a basic touch (close blast 1) to be used by the warlock.

 

[Nail]

I know there are some super power bonuses out there but the Dex rogue in my party was/is getting very down on herself because the Warlords extra attacks never to anything. The warlord grants an extra basic melee to the rogue and then she misses.

I understand and empathize completely. (I play a warlord in one of my groups.) Basic melee attacks suck for rogues.

I'm asuming the rogue gets Combat Advantage all the time. (She does, right?) If not, it's an easy fix for the DM to let up on the monster tactics and room design and allow the flank.


I'm not sure what you mean by a "Dex-rogue". There are only 2 builds: High Str and high Chr. (Personally, I like the high Chr, but the Brutal Scoundrel is solid, and Ruthless Ruffian is okay.) Which do you mean?

Your rogue friend should have an 18 Dex at 1st level, and then probably chose either Chr or Str as her "second" stat (meaning: put a 16 in it). Is this what she did? If she's trying for both Chr and Str, she's in trouble.

 

[Joker]

Hihi, Pickles said it's easier to hit in the NADs at 30th then at 1st level.

 

[Lakoda]

I'm not sure what you mean by a "Dex-rogue". There are only 2 builds: High Str and high Chr. (Personally, I like the high Chr, but the Brutal Scoundrel is solid, and Ruthless Ruffian is okay.) Which do you mean?

Bah, she's DEX and CHA (Artful dodger). She gets CA enough of her own it doesn't help with an 8 STR. I like a lot of obstacles in the room so she has plenty to hide behind.

 

[Milambus]

Bah, she's DEX and CHA (Artful dodger). She gets CA enough of her own it doesn't help with an 8 STR. I like a lot of obstacles in the room so she has plenty to hide behind.

Then she made her choice. She gets extra damage while using Sly Flourish, as apposed to the extra damage added onto her Sneak Attack. And instead of getting to make Opportunity Attacks (and other basic melee attacks) that are worthwhile, she gets insane AC versus Opportunity Attacks. She also get all those nice bonuses to CHA skills.

If your rogue wants to team up with a Warlord, then they should pick the new Ruthless Ruffian build. (Or a Brutal Scoundrel wielding a Double Sword.)

This however is all off the main topic, which that yes as you level up your "base" chance to ht decreases. However, you should have more opportunities to gain some bonus to that attack and when you do you will deal much more damage. Remember that at level one you have 1 Encounter power and 1 Daily, at 30 you will have 4 of each plus 7 Utility powers as will your allies. When you are dealing 3W or 4W with each of those powers it makes a difference.

 

[keterys]

It is absolutely true that as you level up in the Heroic tier, it takes longer to kill monsters. No question.

You know, I used to be willing to believe that until I ran a bunch of tests some months back and it took about 5 rounds (+/-1) 3rd through 29th with the couple sample characters and sample monsters I played with.

I ignored 30th, cause it's broken, and I didn't try 1st or 2nd cause I assumed they'd throw off any curve anyways. In hindsight, I probably should've done 1st and 2nd, but eh.

 

[Danceofmasks]

For the most part, yes it's harder to hit as you level.

A few points for higher level play:

Some buffs scale, so having those help a great deal.
In particular, righteous brand and tac warlord are right up there.
Righteous brand in particular, can break the maths of the game.

PPs make a big difference.
Especially those that offer either a (effectively) permanent +1 bonus (such as kensei or longarm marshal).
Also significant are those that grant +4 to hit for using an AP (applies to all attacks till the start of next turn, so use the AP before doing anything)

Though rare, some feats also offer (conditional) hitroll bonuses.
Back to the wall is probaby my favourite, 'cos it requires tactics to use effectively (especially if you're trying to get CA as well).

Finally, bonus stacking is king.
Human Cleric/Kensei with a sword and back to the wall ... lands a righteous brand ... grants a silly bonus to hit ..
Or someone lands an armor splinter (ranger 13, but tempest fighters can MC for it ... which is disgusting)
That's a cue to use an AP and lay in the hurt.

Or the "action points are broken" party .. with a tac warlord, a bunch of humans with action surge, and PPs that grant +4 to hit for using APs.

But .. in general .. parties that are haphazardly put together will end up sucking.

 

[frankthedm]

Correct. Your to hit ratio drops against foes Defenses at higher levels. 4E makes teamwork vital At higher level. That is a good thing. Now it is not only the rogue who needs to get flanking. As long as the players are smart enough to make use of "ready" so both PCs get to swing with the flanking bonus, melee misses should be less of a problem than is perceived.

If someone has Prime shot, the rest of the party should be very familiar with the "Delay" option to ensure the player claims that bonus as often as possible. If the Warlock or Ranger have to beat their allies in initiative, it is not the system's fault that the group's teamwork sucks ass.

I suspect a lot of the "character miss too much" sentiment is arising from those who are just looking at the character's stats on paper and those upset about 4E core's well balanced feat prerequisites that discourage characters from playing Eighteens & Eights with ability scores.

Also at high levels, PCs should be facing more hordes of lesser foes. At low levels, PCs may have many equals, but as they get up there, they should be the ones outshining their foes the majority of the time.

 

[jgsugden]

Let's just look at this and see if it is a problem...

Monster ACs rise by 1 / level (100% per level). Let's now track the increase in PC attack bonuses assuming the following:

* Key attack attribute started even and rises at every opportunity.
* Improved magic weapon found every 4 or 5 levels (4, 8, 12, 17, 21, 26)

Bonuses thus improve:

Level 01: Starting
Level 02: +1 (even) (even level)
Level 03: -- (behind 1)
Level 04: +2 (even) (item and even level)
Level 05: -- (behind 1)
Level 06: +1 (behind 1) (even level)
Level 07: -- (behind 2)
Level 08: +3 (on par) (item, even level and attribute)
Level 09: -- (behind 1)
Level 10: +1 (behind 1) (even level)
Level 11: -- (behind 2)
Level 12: +2 (behind 1) (item and even level)
Level 13: -- (behind 2)
Level 14: +2 (behind 1) (even level and attribute)
Level 15: -- (behind 2)
Level 16: +1 (behind 2) (even level)
Level 17: +1 (behind 2) (item)
Level 18: +1 (behind 2) (even level)
Level 19: -- (behind 3)
Level 20: +1 (behind 3) (even level)
Level 21: +3 (behind 1) (item, attribute, paragon path (not all pps have a +2 to attribute, but the most common choice does)
Level 22: +1 (behind 1) (even level)
Level 23: -- (behind 2)
Level 24: +1 (behind 2) (even level)
Level 25: -- (behind 3)
Level 26: +1 (behind 3) (even level)
Level 27: +1 (behind 3) (item)
Level 28: +2 (behind 2) (even level and attribute)
Level 29: -- (behind 3)
Level 30: +1 (behind 3) (even level)

You basically jump around between 1 and 3 behind - and I was assuming you'd find magic weapons/implements a bit later than most people do. Once you begin to factor in the increased access to bonuses to hit (greater positioning control, more powerful leader abilities, more powers with + to hit built in, etc....) you'll see that this isn't really a decline at all.

A starting PC on the low end will often have an weapon attack bonus (versus AC) of +2 proficiency and +3 attribute bonus for a +5 bonus. The average soldier (the hardest role to hit with AC) of their level has a starting AC of 17 (per DMG) - requiring them to have a 12 to hit. An elite has 2 higher AC, which brings that up to 14 needed. [If you start off on the high end, that drops by 3 (20 attribute and +3 proficiency) to 11 (or 10 for some rogues).]

If you factor in a +2 bonus for leader powers or flanking, you can get up to needing a 12 instead of a 14 if you're on the low end of AB.

Even if your 'AB' falls behind by 3, that character with the low attributes is still hitting on a 17 without bonuses - against elite creatures of their level.

Now, you do start getting in trouble if you have lowish stats, your proficiency bonus is low, you're at one of those '3 behind' levels, you get no bonuses (flank/leadeer/etc...), you're facing an elite AND that elite is a few levels above your level... but that should be a hard encounter.

All in all - the system works.

And if that argument isn't persuasive, think of it slightly differently. Assume that you're starting with an AB situation that is too high compared to monster defenses - and that it will drop to being in line with time.