How would a modern city manage after the Great Disruption?

[jian]

Let me explain.

I’m just reading The Glass Sentence by S E Grove, which is set in 1890s Boston about a century after an apocalyptic event called the Great Disruption. The GD basically disassembles and reassembles the planet with each piece from a different historical time period. From the point of view of people in Boston in 1799, for instance, the world to the north of them is now from an Ice Age, and the land to the south is now the Baldlands, pre-colonial North America. Other parts of the world are similarly changed and transported - it sounds like some of Europe is medieval, and other parts may be modern or beyond (there are references to “cities of glass”).

So, let’s say this happens to a modern city and its environs - say several hundred miles in all directions. This of course depends on population density - such a shift in modern Britain would comprise quite a few modern cities, for instance. But for the sake of the discussion, let’s say it’s one city and lots of small towns in the radius.

What are the effects and how could people adapt? The most obvious issues are power and food - a modern city is highly dependent on electricity and supply chains for everything. Let’s make it easier - let’s say there’s a lot of nearby modern agriculture and non-fossil power. A good example might be Vancouver (where I live), which has a lot of nearby farms and fisheries, and also gets 80% of its power from hydro-electricity.

(Vancouver also has a couple of oil refineries but little oil of its own, the oil mostly comes from Alberta.)

So we start getting into the nitty-gritty. What can the city manufacture? Without satellites, what is there in the way of Internet? Without oil, how does transport* work? How long do parts last and can you replace them? How would you have to reconfigure the finance system (money is mostly electronic and thus non-existent, is it better for the provisional government to offer a UBI arrangement)?

*Lots of electric cars and the SkyTrain. But electric boats and planes have a maximum range of about 50 miles and can’t carry a lot.

And of course it depends what your neighbouring zones look like. Ice Age Northwest Territories is probably fine, Pre-colonial Washington state ditto.

Anyway, it was a lot to think through and I don’t know enough, so I’m throwing it open to all y’all to see what you think.

 

[sevenbastard]

The real question is if BC is modern, and Alberta is shifted back to the stone age, can I just drive to Alberta and drill the oil because its still there and I know exactly where to look ( assuming i remember how to read paper maps, use the library to look up historic records, and navigate with a compass)?

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Let me explain.

I’m just reading The Glass Sentence by S E Grove, which is set in 1890s Boston about a century after an apocalyptic event called the Great Disruption. The GD basically disassembles and reassembles the planet with each piece from a different historical time period. From the point of view of people in Boston in 1799, for instance, the world to the north of them is now from an Ice Age, and the land to the south is now the Baldlands, pre-colonial North America. Other parts of the world are similarly changed and transported - it sounds like some of Europe is medieval, and other parts may be modern or beyond (there are references to “cities of glass”).

So, let’s say this happens to a modern city and its environs - say several hundred miles in all directions. This of course depends on population density - such a shift in modern Britain would comprise quite a few modern cities, for instance. But for the sake of the discussion, let’s say it’s one city and lots of small towns in the radius.

What are the effects and how could people adapt? The most obvious issues are power and food - a modern city is highly dependent on electricity and supply chains for everything. Let’s make it easier - let’s say there’s a lot of nearby modern agriculture and non-fossil power. A good example might be Vancouver (where I live), which has a lot of nearby farms and fisheries, and also gets 80% of its power from hydro-electricity.

(Vancouver also has a couple of oil refineries but little oil of its own, the oil mostly comes from Alberta.)

So we start getting into the nitty-gritty. What can the city manufacture? Without satellites, what is there in the way of Internet? Without oil, how does transport* work? How long do parts last and can you replace them? How would you have to reconfigure the finance system (money is mostly electronic and thus non-existent, is it better for the provisional government to offer a UBI arrangement)?

*Lots of electric cars and the SkyTrain. But electric boats and planes have a maximum range of about 50 miles and can’t carry a lot.

And of course it depends what your neighbouring zones look like. Ice Age Northwest Territories is probably fine, Pre-colonial Washington state ditto.

Anyway, it was a lot to think through and I don’t know enough, so I’m throwing it open to all y’all to see what you think.

The 1632 series by Eric Flint and others covers a similar premise, in that a small US city circa 2000 is transported to Germany in 1632 and is not a bad take on the whole thing. At least in that it brings up many of the issues that would need to be addressed.

The sharding effect makes many of the issues worse in that, in addition to the cutting off an area from its contemporary hinterland there are multiple such areas. More cultures and more room for confusion and conflict.

The larger and more modern the urban area is and the less of its hinterland it brings with it the more acute the initial crisis but if it can continue to function as a united polity through the initial crisis the more potential for impact on the subsequent world it will have.

Cities from right now are the most vulnerable as they are dependent on a globalised, food, power and manufactures supply chain.

The other thing is disease. Our modern population is pretty disease free by historical standards but a modern large town coming into contact with very early historical population during flu season could be as bad as the black death to the older in time populations in contact with them.
A 1799 Boston would wipe out a precontact native population, on the continent, within 30 years without ever anyone leaving the city.

 

[jian]

The real question is if BC is modern, and Alberta is shifted back to the stone age, can I just drive to Alberta and drill the oil because its still there and I know exactly where to look ( assuming i remember how to read paper maps, use the library to look up historic records, and navigate with a compass)?

I presume yes, and same with the coal deposits in Vancouver Island assuming you have the equipment and expertise to extract it. I presume anthropogenic climate change isn’t really a thing either if the average age of the planet is a few thousand years younger.

 

[jian]

I personally think long distance transport for exploration and trade is quite interesting. Vancouver has a small number of sailing boats and yachts but probably not large or numerous enough for trade.

If Washington state was actually 1870s rather than pre-colonial (for instance) then they’d have a large number of sailing and coal-powered ships with ocean range and the expertise to sail them, which would be very useful in any alliance. It would also be interesting for culture clash, discussion about immigration and colonialism, etc.

One of the first things that happens in The Glass Sentence is that the city government decides to seal the borders and prevent people from outside zones from entering Boston, as well as deport foreigners who are already there.

 

[trappedslider]

this is tangentially related

 

[MarkB]

Satellites are going to be irrelevant for internet unless some other part of the world remains present-day. So long as you have power you can sort out local networking with a little restructuring.

A major issue is that replacements for modern electronics will become nigh-impossible as most chip manufacturing would be based elsewhere in the world, with even some raw materials being hard to source.

Fossil fuel powered vehicles will become useless once available fuel reserves run out. Long-term, though, you might be in luck as oil fields long since depleted in modern times may be available for the taking in other zones. Electric cars will last longer if there is some locally available power generation, but longer term it will be difficult to replace their batteries and other parts as they wear out.

I'd be curious what the environmental effects of such an event would be. You mention that he book has the city now neighbouring a region in an ice age, are climate effects limited by zone or will they average out worldwide in due course? The weather would get pretty wild for awhile in the latter case, I'd guess.

 

[jian]

The 1632 series by Eric Flint and others covers a similar premise, in that a small US city circa 2000 is transported to Germany in 1632 and is not a bad take on the whole thing. At least in that it brings up many of the issues that would need to be addressed.

The sharding effect makes many of the issues worse in that, in addition to the cutting off an area from its contemporary hinterland there are multiple such areas. More cultures and more room for confusion and conflict.

The larger and more modern the urban area is and the less of its hinterland it brings with it the more acute the initial crisis but if it can continue to function as a united polity through the initial crisis the more potential for impact on the subsequent world it will have.

Cities from right now are the most vulnerable as they are dependent on a globalised, food, power and manufactures supply chain.

The other thing is disease. Our modern population is pretty disease free by historical standards but a modern large town coming into contact with very early historical population during flu season could be as bad as the black death to the older in time populations in contact with them.
A 1799 Boston would wipe out a precontact native population, on the continent, within 30 years without ever anyone leaving the city.

Lots of really good points. I was certainly thinking of 1632 but on a much bigger scale - a lot of industry would have to “gear down” in the same way. Vancouver can’t make semiconductors but what can it make? Printed circuits? Vacuum tubes?

The infection issue is pretty important too - I’m sure New Vancouver doesn’t want to speed run accidentally wiping out the Coast Salish population. Vaccinations could be offered but making new vaccines would be very difficult, as would be manufacturing medicines in general.

 

[trappedslider]

one thing 1632 really hammered was just how much knowledge is in even a middle school library, then you'd have the institutional knowledge of the citizens.

so one of the books in the Embers/dies the fire universe is Island in a sea of time:

• A strange storm hits Nantucket in 1998.

• The Time Shift: The island and a U.S. Coast Guard ship named the Eagle are sent back to 1250 BC.

• The Problem: There is no modern world left on the mainland. The people have no factories, no oil, and no electricity. They have about 7,000 residents who need food and safety.

 

[MarkB]

one thing 1632 really hammered was just how much knowledge is in even a middle school library, then you'd have the institutional knowledge of the citizens.

so one of the books in the Embers/dies the fire universe is Island in a sea of time:

• A strange storm hits Nantucket in 1998.
• The Time Shift: The island and a U.S. Coast Guard ship named the Eagle are sent back to 1250 BC.
• The Problem: There is no modern world left on the mainland. The people have no factories, no oil, and no electricity. They have about 7,000 residents who need food and safety.

Yeah, bootstrapping an entire industrial base is the tricky part. I haven't kept up with it, but as of its first couple of seasons the Dr Stone anime was doing a good job of exploring that concept, through its premise of present-day people essentially transported forward in time to a primitive post-post-apocalypse setting.