How would a modern city manage after the Great Disruption?

[jian]

this is tangentially related

That was pretty relevant! Ended as I thought/hoped it would. The assumption that both sides are basically sane helps.

Now watching the one about the Yamato.

 

[Koloth]

Grantville was the town/city in the 1632 series. One advantage it had was a coal fired power plant was included in the land that made the time trip. As a result, it arrived with an intact electrical system. As the town and surrounding area was primarily a rural US setting, many of the inhabitants arrived will a good arsenal of personal firearms and ammo. But as noted above, supply chains will be mostly interrupted. Brass can be reloaded and fresh bullets cast from lead but primers are generally bought and only a few places in the current era make them. At least initially, modern ammo will need to be conserved as much as possible.

Fairly certain that a local library will have at least one book on the basics of transistor design. But is there a supply of the basic ingredients? Even if you setup a factory to make transistors, that doesn't really get you to advanced integrated circuits. So your supply of modern computers/laptops/printers/etc are limited to whatever made the trip for several decades. And it isn't just transistors. It is capacitors, inductors, resistors and variable versions of all three. You wanted to tune that radio? Oh, and don't forget blank circuit boards. And the etching stuff to turn the blanks into usable boards. And solder. And.....

Luck of the draw on what manufacturing facilities make the trip. Good chance that several folks have old bought as surplus industrial lathes, mills and such. Any cutting tools will have to be carefully rationed until the metallurgy methods to make new ones are setup. Sword steel is fairly easy once you know the trick. High speed cutting tools are a bit more difficult.

One common thread in the 1632 series was how Grantville interacted with the locals. Europe of that time was basically one big war zone. While the Grantville had a nice advantage in weapons tech, the town was outnumbered thousands to 1. Diplomacy becomes very important.

 

[Thomas Shey]

I ran a post-apocalypse campaign like this many years ago. The problem was almost no one had the support needed to keep working as they were used to, and the few that did had the problem of neighborns trying to overwlelm them to keep themselves alive.

 

[trappedslider]

That was pretty relevant! Ended as I thought/hoped it would. The assumption that both sides are basically sane helps.

Now watching the one about the Yamato.

all of the 2 am thought videos are good imo and basically come down how long would x last/how small of an impact does the unit have or how big.

 

[Kaodi]

Lots of really good points. I was certainly thinking of 1632 but on a much bigger scale - a lot of industry would have to “gear down” in the same way. Vancouver can’t make semiconductors but what can it make? Printed circuits? Vacuum tubes?

The infection issue is pretty important too - I’m sure New Vancouver doesn’t want to speed run accidentally wiping out the Coast Salish population. Vaccinations could be offered but making new vaccines would be very difficult, as would be manufacturing medicines in general.

Yes, I think you would very quickly find out how Vancouverites really feel about colonization. But at least the very worst disease, smallpox, should be a non-issue? Right? That one is still gone? Please?

 

[Umbran]

Issues that "modern" areas will have:

1) With a few exceptions, modern cities don't get their electricity from local generation. The depend on large scale power grids pulling and balancing power across hundreds of miles.

2) Modern cities pull food from industrial farms hundreds and thousands of miles away. In this scenario, not only is transport disrupted, but the production isn't there, either.

3) Same for water. Boston gets most of its potable water from reservoirs elsewhere in the state.

Folks are talking about how long it takes electric cars to wear our, when famine will strike the city within days.

 

[jian]

Issues that "modern" areas will have:

1) With a few exceptions, modern cities don't get their electricity from local generation. The depend on large scale power grids pulling and balancing power across hundreds of miles.

2) Modern cities pull food from industrial farms hundreds and thousands of miles away. In this scenario, not only is transport disrupted, but the production isn't there, either.

3) Same for water. Boston gets most of its potable water from reservoirs elsewhere in the state.

Folks are talking about how long it takes electric cars to wear our, when famine will strike the city within days.

Yes, for most modern cities this will basically end in absolutely horrific disaster. Somewhere like London is completely screwed. Heck, the whole U.K. is monumentally screwed since it imports most of its food, water, and electricity.

Vancouver is an example of a modern city that might survive long enough to adapt thanks to its local power, agricultural, and industrial resources. But there aren’t many such examples.

 

[jian]

all of the 2 am thought videos are good imo and basically come down how long would x last/how small of an impact does the unit have or how big.

The fun is in the details, like the fact that a modern destroyer basically isn’t packing anything big enough to sink the Yamato.

 

[overgeeked]

Yes, for most modern cities this will basically end in absolutely horrific disaster. Somewhere like London is completely screwed. Heck, the whole U.K. is monumentally screwed since it imports most of its food, water, and electricity.

Vancouver is an example of a modern city that might survive long enough to adapt thanks to its local power, agricultural, and industrial resources. But there aren’t many such examples.

Vancouver might last slightly longer than some other modern cities, yes. But it wouldn’t last long.

Greater Vancouver has more than 2 million people to feed. There’s only so much fresh fish you can stomach. There’s only so much fish you can take before the fish populations collapse. So too with other seafood and wildlife. There’s only so much fishing you can do with row boats and nets or poles and whatever fresh bait you can find. Only so much hunting you can do without a vehicle or a gun or bullets. There’s only so much the local agriculture can produce. Assuming you’re transported at just the right time, crops about ready to harvest, or already harvested but still stored locally. If it’s harvest time, you better hope you can convince a few thousand people to go peacefully harvest food without eating it all or stealing it or bringing guns to take over the fields.

It would be the COVID panic buying of groceries and toilet paper from early 2020, only there’d never be any resupply deliveries. Everything not made locally would vanish in a week or two. No gas, no cars, no modern transportation. EVs need to charge from the grid which would be down. If even some of the power comes from outside the zone, you’re screwed. Rolling blackouts, food spoils, pumps don’t work, etc.

Given the total absence of communication with the outside world and cessation of most, if not all, communication within the transported area, you’d collapse into pure chaos in short order.

Most people in the city would die. Anyone with guns would quickly take what they wanted leaving everyone else to starve or freeze. But even their supplies would dwindle to nothing. They’d find and kill each other hoping for a few more days of food.

Most people in the suburbs would fare about the same, but last slightly longer with the occasional doomsday prepper holding out longer. Lower population density but everything’s spread out more so harder to get to on foot.

Most people at the periphery, rural environments, would fare better. More used to stocking up and holding out between big trips to town. They’d likely have a good stock of supplies compared to city dwellers. Far more preppers, but not most people.

Basically, the preppers on the outskirts with guns, a good amount of supplies, a bit of land, and the knowledge required to work the land would last the longest. Most everyone else is dead within a month or two, tops.

 

[jian]

Vancouver might last slightly longer than some other modern cities, yes. But it wouldn’t last long.

Greater Vancouver has more than 2 million people to feed. There’s only so much fresh fish you can stomach. There’s only so much fish you can take before the fish populations collapse. So too with other seafood and wildlife. There’s only so much fishing you can do with row boats and nets or poles and whatever fresh bait you can find. There’s only so much the local agriculture can produce. Assuming you’re transported at just the right time, crops about ready to harvest, or already harvested but still stored locally. If it’s harvest time, you better hope you can convince a few thousand people to go peacefully harvest food without eating it all or stealing it or bringing guns to take over the fields.

It would be the COVID panic buying of groceries and toilet paper from early 2020, only there’d never be any resupply deliveries. Everything not made locally would vanish in a week or two. No gas, no cars, no modern transportation. EVs need to charge from the grid which would be down. If even some of the power comes from outside the zone, you’re screwed. Rolling blackouts, food spoils, pumps don’t work, etc.

Given the total absence of communication with the outside world and cessation of most, if not all, communication within the transported area, you’d collapse into pure chaos in short order.

Most people in the city would die. Anyone with guns would quickly take what they wanted leaving everyone else to starve or freeze. But even their supplies would dwindle to nothing. They’d find and kill each other hoping for a few more days of food.

Most people in the suburbs would fare about the same, but last slightly longer with the occasional doomsday prepper holding out longer. Lower population density but everything’s spread out more so harder to get to on foot.

Most people at the periphery, rural environments would fare better. More used to stocking up and holding out between bjg trips to town. They’d likely have a good stock of supplies compared to city dwellers. Far more preppers, but not most people.

Basically, the preppers on the outskirts with guns, a good amount of supplies, a bit of land, and the knowledge required to work the land would last the longest. Most everyone else is dead within a month or two, tops.

It would certainly take an act of impressive cooperation to get everyone (most people) to not panic and trust that food would be coming in, keep the power flowing, etc. - BC (even just the southern half or so) definitely does grow enough food for the entire 5m population and then some. You would have to direct the shrinking fuel reserves to priority transport of food and other essential resources, impose rationing, communicate effectively with the population, and so on. Vancouver is an example of a city that could pull this off - very few others could. Sure, about 1 in 15 people own guns, but I don’t think it has to be the most important factor.

Also, this is a pretty boring story if it goes Mad Max straight away. What’s more interesting is what happens with communicating with other zones. Which all depends on what zones are nearby and what era they’re from.

We can choose other example cities but it’s very hard to avoid the Mad Max scenario for any length of time. Any thoughts?