If the D&D brand became too hot to handle,what would be the next 80 pound gorilla?

[R_J_K75]

I was reading an article recently about the underwhelming box office performances of "The Mandalorian and Grogu" and "Masters of the Universe" and how Gen Z/Alpha are calling Star Wars "unc slop" ("uncle slop" for out-of-touch, old-person media). The article suggested that the renaissance of geek culture is waning.

Not exactly the same but along the same lines to an article I read last night.

Gen X bankrolls geek fandom

 

[Umbran]

We'll need another thread to poll out an answer to that question. My bet would be EN Publishing.

If I had to bet? LIke, really, not betting were not an option?

The company most likely to be able to do the trick would be Paizo, seeing as they've done it once before. In the end, this is about who could put out the better cloned product faster.

It would probably mean dropping Pathfinder 2e, but they are the ones most likely to have the publishing oomph to get new hardcover rulebooks on the shelves, and put out hardcover-format adventure content, quickly enough to allow transition en masse.

A5e is based on 5e, but the added complexity to its rules mean folks could not slide over without effort. And EN Publishing is probably too small to meet the larger market needs quickly.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

“Earring Magic Ken” infamously wore a large ring on a neck chain, as was popular in one segment of the gay community for a while.

He became one of the fastest selling Ken dolls in the product line’s history.

Ah!, I see, "A nod is as good as wink to a blind horse" sort of thing. If you know, you know.

 

[Duke_]

I was reading an article recently about the underwhelming box office performances of "The Mandalorian and Grogu" and "Masters of the Universe" and how Gen Z/Alpha are calling Star Wars "unc slop" ("uncle slop" for out-of-touch, old-person media). The article suggested that the renaissance of geek culture is waning. We're coming to the end of celebrating Marvel and Stranger Things. Cool things will be cool again.

I'm not sure I agree with the suggestion that "Masters of the Universe" or Grogulorian flopping is indicative of waning geek culture. I don't associate He-Man with geek culture, I associate it with Gen X generally. It seemed like every kid was watching that in the 80s, not just us geeks. But ultimately it's a nostalgia grab for a campy cartoon that had a whopping two seasons over 40 years ago. Generations before and after X aren't going to be interested. And Gen X is not one of the bigger generations. It has pretty narrow appeal. I'm squarely the target market, and I'm waiting for streaming.

As far as Star Wars... they've had, what, one good movie out of their past 8 or so? I'm thinking about Rogue One as the good one. The Anakin prequels, the Rey trilogy, and Solo were all dreck. I basically gave up on Star Wars after this run of bad movies, so I haven't watched any of the recent TV series, but I haven't heard good things about Kenobi, for example. So if Zoomers and younger are calling Star Wars any kind of slop, it's hard to blame them based on recent quality. And it's specifically "unc slop" because it's mostly people who grew up with "good" Star Wars who are still watching... some of them, anyway.

That's my theory, anyway. I think there are other possible causes than "geek culture is in decline", basically.

 

[MGibster]

This is probably how it would go. Mark Rein-Hagen's first game Ars Magica did well enough, but no one saw Vampire: The Masquerade coming. Sure, edgier RPGs were starting to creep into the landscape, some of which were quite successful, but none of them hit as big as Vampire did.

There's the rub. Nobody really knows what the next big thing might be. Nobody in 1989 expected they'd still be making The Simpsons nearly 40 years later. What happens is something hits it big, everyone scrambles to get a piece of that pie, then it fades away, and we start the cycle again when something new hits it big. You can make a reasonable guess about the next Star Wars movie based on past performances, but sometimes you get hit with something unexpected like My Big Fat Greek Wedding.

 

[R_J_K75]

As far as Star Wars... they've had, what, one good movie out of their past 8 or so? I'm thinking about Rogue One as the good one. The Anakin prequels, the Rey trilogy, and Solo were all dreck. I basically gave up on Star Wars after this run of bad movies, so I haven't watched any of the recent TV series, but I haven't heard good things about Kenobi, for example. So if Zoomers and younger are calling Star Wars any kind of slop, it's hard to blame them based on recent quality.

I agree that Rogue One was definitely the best thing in Star Wars since 1983, in fact I'd put it before RotJ. Although I liked Solo. Also agreed that the Disney era TV shows are garbage, and Ive watched a few...why I don't know. My brother asked me if I wanted to see the new Mando and Yoda movie and it was a hard pass, so I think I'm finally done with the IP as long as it's in Disney's hands.

 

[Thierry-Advent]

Pathfinder is far more likely to fail than D&D. If Pathfinder effectively fails, in an hypothetical scenario, what would be your fantasy RPG of choice?

 

[Micah Sweet]

I cannot argue with your preferences. If you'd rather the overall number of players withering to a shadow of it's current self... you do you.

I, personally, am okay with one company making a modest fortune, if it supports the variety of other creative work we now see. The rest of the market does not looked, "ruled" by D&D. It seems more enabled by D&D.

Your opinion is perfectly valid, but WotC 's influence on the TTRPG industry and, far worse IMO the TTRPG hobby through whatever they decide the current edition of D&D is has I believe passed the point where the benefits to actual hobbyists outweigh the drawbacks.

 

[Micah Sweet]

If I had to bet? LIke, really, not betting were not an option?

The company most likely to be able to do the trick would be Paizo, seeing as they've done it once before. In the end, this is about who could put out the better cloned product faster.

It would probably mean dropping Pathfinder 2e, but they are the ones most likely to have the publishing oomph to get new hardcover rulebooks on the shelves, and put out hardcover-format adventure content, quickly enough to allow transition en masse.

A5e is based on 5e, but the added complexity to its rules mean folks could not slide over without effort. And EN Publishing is probably too small to meet the larger market needs quickly.

It would IMO be worth a try, but I am not a publisher.

 

[Dessert Nomad]

I guess the most likely result overall if D&D just vanishes is that nothing directly takes its place and that there's more of a mix of other properties filling in the RPG space, probably with Pathfinder as the lead but nowhere near as dominant as D&D is now. If there isn't an active D&D brand for a few years, D&D probably turns into even more of a generic term for "RPG" than it is now. Otherwise any prediction depends hugely on what makes D&D 'too hot to handle'.