If the D&D brand became too hot to handle,what would be the next 80 pound gorilla?

[Autumnal]

There's the rub. Nobody really knows what the next big thing might be.

This really cannot be emphasized too highly. D&D itself wasn’t a planned mass market triumph, nor (as you commented earlier) VTM, nor anything else. It’s possible to look back and spot reasons, but spotting the right ones in advance just doesn’t happen. I therefore try not to fret about it, and to be the kind of interested audience people with more news want to share it with. (I had good fortune with that hearing from others early in the rises of Blades in the Dark and Mörk Borg.)

As for what a replacement game would be called…possibly Original Dungeons & Dragons, with a very different typography for the ampersand and mechanics similar to 5.x. Possibly D&D, like KFC and DSW.

The suggestion of CoC is interesting. Play up the Dark Ages and other historical settings with more overt fantastic elements. But actually existing Chaosium is utterly incapable of the kind of work that would take. They’d have to partner with, or sell themselves to, someone who can get more work to market.

 

[sevenbastard]

haven't watched any of the recent TV series, but I haven't heard good things about Kenobi, for example.

Stop what you are doing and watch Andor. Its not just good Star Wars, its good period.

Some people complain the first three episodes are slow, but i dont feel that at all. It made me rethink my indifference to modern Star Wars.

 

[Staffan]

Jazz

In any age there are two types of cool. what the trend setters do, and what the marketing people claim is cool.

"The Monks of Cool, whose tiny and exclusive monastery is hidden in a really cool and laid-back valley in the lower Ramtops, have a passing-out test for a novice. He is taken into a room full of all types of clothing and asked: Yo, my son, which of these is the most stylish thing to wear? And the correct answer is: Hey, whatever I select."
― Terry Pratchett, Lords and Ladies

Anyway... wasn't there a brief time when Pathfinder was outselling D&D 4E, or at least coming close? I'd say Pathfinder, but then a new edition of D&D would probably come out. It might even be completely unrecognizable, but there's too much name recognition there for "D&D" to die.

The topic has been under discussion before, and people who have seen both sets of numbers have said that Pathfinder did not outsell 4e. There was a short period of time (once 4e had essentially ceased production because they were working on 5e) where Pathfinder outsold D&D specifically in hobby stores according to ICV2 surveys (which are supposedly rather inaccurate), but even during that period I believe D&D's access to mass market stores helped it outsell Pathfinder.

I believe there was another time when another game briefly outsold D&D, but I haven't been able to track down the source. But basically, I remember that while TSR was floundering just before being bought by Wizards of the Coast, and wasn't publishing anything due to "a problem at the printer*", Palladium briefly overtook them. But that was in 1996 or 1997, and I'm pretty sure I read it in either a Usenet post or on ADND-L, and that's impossible to find now.

* The problem was that the printer wouldn't print anything or release anything they had already printed unless they were getting paid.

 

[Thierry-Advent]

Anyway... wasn't there a brief time when Pathfinder was outselling D&D 4E, or at least coming close? I'd say Pathfinder, but then a new edition of D&D would probably come out. It might even be completely unrecognizable, but there's too much name recognition there for "D&D" to die.

Owen KC Stephens and Chris H Sims say iCV2 numbers gave an incomplete portrait of total sales of both games. 4e was a financial success.

Source with citations. It's worth reading:

Pathfinder Never Outsold 4E D&D (ICYMI)

The myth that Paizo's Pathfinder outsold Dungeons & Dragons 4E endures, but it is a myth worth slaying.

alphastream.org

 

[Autumnal]

"I believe there was another time when another game briefly outsold D&D, but I haven't been able to track down the source. But basically, I remember that while TSR was floundering just before being bought by Wizards of the Coast, and wasn't publishing anything due to "a problem at the printer*", Palladium briefly overtook them. But that was in 1996 or 1997, and I'm pretty sure I read it in either a Usenet post or on ADND-L, and that's impossible to find

The story as I have it is that in one of the months just before 3e came out, when there hand been anything new for 2e in a while, there was one month where Vampire: The Masquerade outsold D&D. Then 3e came out it resumed not ever even being close.

 

[trappedslider]

To help with the thought experiment: Pick whatever reason will work for D&D being removed from the marketplace that could allow another game/company to take over at being both a joy and a target for dislike/enjoyment that WotC currently gets.

 

[mamba]

Owen KC Stephens and Chris H Sims say iCV2 numbers gave an incomplete portrait of total sales of both games. 4e was a financial success.

Source with citations. It's worth reading:

eh, "the game did fine early in its life cycle" was never contested, it tells you something about a year or two into its lifecycle too however...

 

[Corinnguard]

A5e is based on 5e, but the added complexity to its rules mean folks could not slide over without effort. And EN Publishing is probably too small to meet the larger market needs quickly.

That would require an Investigation check on the part of everyone who has given A5e a try. You're probably right about EN Publishing. It's also probably true for any of the other 3pp who has made a 5e-adjacent RPG. At best, these 3pp's could take a slice of D&D and make it their own.

 

[Micah Sweet]

That would require an Investigation check on the part of everyone who has given A5e a try. You're probably right about EN Publishing. It's also probably true for any of the other 3pp who has made a 5e-adjacent RPG. At best, these 3pp's could take a slice of D&D and make it their own.

Good enough for me.

 

[dbm]

If the D&D brand became toxic, then I am confident a near-clone would pick up the ball like Pathfinder 1e did. If the system fell out of favour then it’s not clear where a large body of fans would land. My first hunch would be Daggerheart as something somewhat distinct from D&D but with high visibility online due to Critical Role (it’s a safe bet they would pivot their main show to Daggerheart in this hypothetical).

If fantasy as a dominant genre fell away then sci-fi would probably be next in terms of mass appeal? Supers seem to be a bit tapped out at present, and horror scratches a different itch than fantasy / sci-fi in terms of power fantasies or lack-there-of. So maybe Starfinder or Traveller?