New Miniatures... Info?

[JoeGKushner]

Hell, I'm not even talking about polling.

Let's say the following 'dream sequence of Joe G Kushner' occurs.

1. We know that WoTC is rereleasing old sculpts.

2. We know that people can pre-order something.

3. WoTC does a 'Silver Edition' of D&D minis based on Pre-Orders. The first batch is from the first four sets. First 30 minis to reach X amount of pre-orders is done. If another wave hits X magic number, they get pressed at a higher price.

4. Next batch is from the next four sets. Follows the same pattern. First poeple to preorder get a price break. If enough people order after the initial price break they'll print it again but at a higher cost.

In between there, surely market research will take place and showcase what they need to be making MORE of.

This would not be difficult to do.

Then again, WoTC can't get their own DDI out the door so maybe this seemingly simply thing would be far beyound their abilities.

 

[JVisgaitis]

People think product cost = materials + labour + R&D/overhead. Yes, that's correct, but there's one other big factor: sales efficiency. If you only sell 80% of what you make, that remaining 20% that you landfill is part of the cost of the 80% that did get sold.

Randomization increases sales efficiency. When you only produce 3 booster releases a year, you only have to get the numbers right 3 times. (And product similarity makes it pretty easy to get the numbers right every time.)

I understand all of that. I used to help out Magnificent Egos and running a miniatures business is a real pain. One question though. How come the miniature packs for Heroscape are so much cheaper? I don't think that the quality is that much different. I would happily pay for Heroscape quality D&D minis at those prices.

 

[CharlesRyan]

If only it would be that easy!

While you can find out via market research which minis have the potential to sell well, it's only one of many aspects that eventually decide on a mini's success. [. . .]

To sell well, everything about the mini must be good: the choice of mini, the sculpt, the paintjob, the colour scheme, the price, etc. This is also why they're creating design studies of a lot of minis that never make it to the customer. Finally, there are problems related to the production process (just think of the clear plastic minis that are generally more popular than the normal ones).

You cannot really plan for all this. Basically, you can only hope a mini is going to be a hit, even if market research indicates it _should_ be a top-seller!

I've snipped it for brevity, but basically, very well said. This is an art, not a science. Market research might move the needle on sales efficiency, but it doesn't solve the problem. And in the meantime, you've added costs--not just the MR agency's fees, but also increases in the production cycle and all the costs associated with that.

Heck, if this was easy, everyone would do it.

 

[JoeGKushner]

Everyone would do it?

You mean start up costs have completely vanished?

Fantastic!

 

[CharlesRyan]

So are you implying that no market research is being done on the minis? Are they just going to randomly start making minis then? "Here's one in the shape of poo. We hope you like it. We'd have done some research but that would have lead us to charge you more for it." ?

Dude, do you really think that's what I'm implying?

If so, let me be clear: When I talk about market research adding cost, I'm talking about the difference in market research between the current level and the level necessary to significantly affect sales efficiency.

 

[Zaukrie]

I understand all of that. I used to help out Magnificent Egos and running a miniatures business is a real pain. One question though. How come the miniature packs for Heroscape are so much cheaper? I don't think that the quality is that much different. I would happily pay for Heroscape quality D&D minis at those prices.

Which ones are cheaper? Isn't the MSRP $12.99 for 3-6 minis per pack?

And, have you seen any new packs lately? Are you sure that game is getting much support? They have been lucky lately to get 1 new wave a year. Tiny, tiny number of monsters are available. I own many, and on many the quality is good. However, on many the quality is less. But, the key is, they have a much smaller number of monsters available.

 

[JoeGKushner]

Dude, do you really think that's what I'm implying?

If so, let me be clear: When I talk about market research adding cost, I'm talking about the difference in market research between the current level and the level necessary to significantly affect sales efficiency.

It seems that you're implying that no further market research can be done. That they will continue on their road and 'hope' they get it right.

I'm saying they should be able, even through secondary markets, to pretty quickly see what people want. They don't even have to poll people, they just need to research what's selling on the higher ends.

 

[avin]

So are you implying that no market research is being done on the minis?

Well, I seriously doubt their research points to Scooby Doo minis such as War Devil or orange Aboleths...

If they are researching is far from here, Maxminis, Hordelings and DDMSpoilers... hehehe

 

[Sammael]

Dude, do you really think that's what I'm implying?

If so, let me be clear: When I talk about market research adding cost, I'm talking about the difference in market research between the current level and the level necessary to significantly affect sales efficiency.

Charles,

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that having an uncommon huge nightwalker (a solitary high-level creature) is not really a good idea. On the other hand, an uncommon huge treant is a great idea, because treants can sub as scenery.

That's the kind of stuff you can work out without any market research whatsoever.

As for using a market agency, that's hardly necessary. You have the RPGA - you can use it for market research. That's better than whatever market research suggested the Wrackspawn mini was a good common. Or that the current Aboleth is what the people have been clamoring for for years.

I'm not talking out of my behind here, I've been following (and buying) DDM for years now. I stopped buying cases after the War Drums case fiasco. I stopped buying lots of boosters after the War of the Dragon Queen booster fiasco. I stopped being a completist collector after Desert of Desolation and the 4E styling of minis. If quality doesn't improve dramatically after this price hike and model change (and by all accounts, it won't), WotC will lose me as their customer completely.

 

[Vocenoctum]

It seems that you're implying that no further market research can be done. That they will continue on their road and 'hope' they get it right.

What I believe he's saying is that any further research would cost more than it would profit. If the amount of money an indepth market research effort would cost would also make the line non-profitable or at least not increase the profit... why bother?

(Especially for WotC, who can simply blame the fans when stuff fails anyway.

I'm saying they should be able, even through secondary markets, to pretty quickly see what people want. They don't even have to poll people, they just need to research what's selling on the higher ends.

If they just did market research by getting one of the DDM price guides and seeing which stuff sold best, at least they'd have a good start. But, the other advantage of the random method was adding in monsters that not everyone would want. Who knows anymore.

I lost interest when the mini's got ugly (in both quality and selection). I'm a minimalist 4e player now, so I certainly don't plan on getting any of the new stuff. (Least of all because of all the changes made to iconic stuff. I'll keep my old Beholder and Green Dragon, you can have the new ones.)

 

[Zaukrie]

Would you rather get a rare Nightwalker?

I use my extras for:

take off the arms, base them, and call them bigby's whatever
repaint and make a fire elemental (tried, didn't like my work, then they came out with one)
break apart, repaint grey, and mount (or not) as a broken statue.

yes, that minis was not my favorite, but I'm not sure I'd want a rare one. To make the model work, some minis needed few paint steps, to pay for the better ones.

That said, i agree with your general point on quality decreasing, though I decided much earlier not to be a completist (and I won more than 2000 of these things).

 

[CharlesRyan]

What I believe he's saying is that any further research would cost more than it would profit.

Actually, what I'm saying is that nonrandomized minis cost more than randomized minis. They cost more because of sales inefficiency. If you fix that problem through market research, then they cost more because of market research. Either way, they cost more.

Lots of people have suggested ways that market research could be carried out on the cheap. That's great (if it were actually that simple), but generally those suggestions apply to making D&D minis better. There's nothing wrong with that (I'm all for it!), but that doesn't address the issue of sales inefficiency among nonrandomized SKUs. Nonrandomization costs more if D&D minis are crap, and nonrandomization costs more if D&D minis are awesome.

 

[JoeGKushner]

Then I vote for making them awesome.

 

[Drkfathr1]

I wonder if the recent Star Wars mini packs are a test to see of the market will bear a pre-assorted pack of minis?

 

[Melba Toast]

I fully support non-randomized PC minis.

However, from a business perspective, I'm surprised Wizards didn't think to include at least -1- random "mystery mini" with each PC pack. That would help offset the price and increase repeat purchases.

Wizards made it's fortune selling randomly assorted packaged toys and games. I'm not sure why they would want to end a good thing.

 

[Siran Dunmorgan]

It makes me wonder, though... They've already gone sort of half-way, with non-random PC packs, and a single visible Large creature in each monster pack. I wonder if it would be worthwhile for them to take some of the (more or less) guaranteed sellers and make themed packs out of them.

For example, something like a non-random goblin pack with 1 of each non-minion, and a half-dozen of the minions... or something similar.

Do you mean something like these?

Or, for those of you with an interest in the undead, these?

It's certainly true that the more you have of the latter, the more effective they are.

More to the point, selling non-random miniatures seems to have worked for them for a number of years. Production and transportation costs certainly started eating their way into profits, and massive changes in management have slowed new releases somewhat, but the model has been shown to be viable, even increasing in quality over the years.

And they are a Wizards of the Coast brand, now.

—Siran Dunmorgan

 

[Zaukrie]

And they are more expensive and they have almost no product coming out for two years now. Heroscape fans are convinced that their game is still thriving, I'm not convinced (and I own a ton of HS).

 

[Scars Unseen]

I think I'm going to try my hand at sculpting my own minis. Just got some old dental tools from my dentist for free and I grabbed some Studio Sculpey from my local craft store. I'll let you know how it turns out(though I expect to be making and remaking the same thing quite a few times before i get something that is passable).

 

[Dire Bare]

Dude, do you really think that's what I'm implying?

If so, let me be clear: When I talk about market research adding cost, I'm talking about the difference in market research between the current level and the level necessary to significantly affect sales efficiency.

You've been clear. It just seems to me that some folks are just too fond of the idea that WotC is clueless and that a child could do better. Despite lack of experience or knowledge on what it truly takes to put out a quality product.

I think it takes work to misunderstand your points as some are doing in this thread. Of course WotC does marketing, of course WotC wants to produce product that makes fans squee . . . . sometimes they succeed at this and sometimes they fail . . . . just like every other RPG or miniatures company, or any company for that matter.

It boggles my mind how some folks in this thread are pulling the craziest stuff from "between the lines" of your posts . . . .

 

[Dire Bare]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that having an uncommon huge nightwalker (a solitary high-level creature) is not really a good idea. On the other hand, an uncommon huge treant is a great idea, because treants can sub as scenery.

That's the kind of stuff you can work out without any market research whatsoever.

Really? You really think it's that easy? Wow.

Safe to say I completely disagree with you. I hated the Nightwalker figure, but not because it was an uncommon mini, but rather because it was very silly looking. Had that mini rocked, it would have made a sweet pull in the uncommon slot. But, as Charles has pointed out, lots of factors go into this sort of thing. I really doubt the WotC's guys thought, "Hey, this mini is kinda lame and no one is going to want it, so lets slot it as an uncommon." But rather it started as what the WotC guys thought would make a fantastic bad ass mini, but unfortuneately it failed. But hey, it's not rocket science (how insulting).

If they just did market research by getting one of the DDM price guides and seeing which stuff sold best, at least they'd have a good start. But, the other advantage of the random method was adding in monsters that not everyone would want. Who knows anymore.

Researching what has sold well is important, and I'll bet dollars to donuts WotC does just that. But ultimately, it tells you what has already sold well or poorly, not what will sell well or poorly tomorrow.