RPG Evolution: The Dragons Come Home to Roost

D&D has long striven to be more than a game, but a brand. Thanks to the game's surge in popularity, those plans are coming to fruition.

Hasbro’s Strategy​

Hasbro’s association with the movie industry has long been a mutually beneficial relationship, in which toy sales surge with each new movie. Star Wars and Transformers are both examples of how Hasbro’s bottom line is impacted by the release of the latest film. Unfortunately, this strategy means Hasbro is reliant on third party schedules to produce revenue, and the pandemic highlighted just how much can go wrong with the complicated process of releasing a movie. No wonder the company wants its own intellectual property that it can monetize for movies and streaming.

This is why Hasbro's strategy has moved well beyond just producing toys and games. Hasbro divides their new approach into four quadrants: Toys & Games, Digital Gaming, Licensed Consumer Products, and Media (TV, Film, Digital Shorts, Emerging Media). Hasbro previously announced plans to execute on this four quadrant strategy with all of its licenses, including My Little Pony, Transformers, Magic: The Gathering, and Dungeons & Dragons. Some of those Media plans have been easier to execute than others, with Transformer movies running out of steam, the My Little Pony series winding down, and a Magic: The Gathering series yet to launch on streaming. That leaves D&D.

WOTC’s Strategy​

Wizards of the Coast has always struggled to justify its revenue goals for Dungeons & Dragons amidst high revenue brands like Magic: The Gathering. At one point, each division was given a goal of $100 million in annual sales, a number that was not reachable through tabletop gaming channels.

The solution was digital gaming. D&D tried several times to mimic the Massive Multi-Player Online Role-Playing Game (MMORPG) space, which it inadvertently spawned dating all the way back to Multi-User Dungeons (MUDs) and Interactive Fiction (IF). The idea was that if the company could own a slice of that digital engagement dedicated to off-brand D&D, they could reach at least $50 million.

It didn’t work. WOTC never had enough resources, the right partners, or the technical know-how to effectively launch a digital ecosystem that would last longer than a few years. Then something surprising happened: D&D became more popular than all the other Hasbro brands combined.

The Dragons Take Over​

The passing of the previous Hasbro CEO created a power vacuum quickly filled by the staff shepherding D&D into the new age. The twin factors of the pandemic and streaming made D&D uniquely suited to a much wider audience, and it didn’t take long before WOTC was responsible for 72% of Hasbro’s total operating profit. In a very short period of time, WOTC went from a barely-mentioned division on Hasbro investor calls to the darling of the company, with CEO Chris Cocks taking the reins as Hasbro’s CEO in February 2022.

So what’s next? Sure enough, WOTC is executing on Hasbro's four quadrant plan for D&D. Let’s break it down:

• Media: The juggernaut most likely to influence the other three quadrants is the upcoming D&D movie. There have been many attempts at making D&D movies that have all been commercial failures. This time around feels different, if only because there was a legal battle waged through proxies on behalf of movie-making behemoths (Universal Studios vs. Warner Bros.) for D&D’s film rights. It’s clear they think there’s a lot of money to be made with a D&D movie. Unlike other movie launches, Hasbro is supporting the movie with the full force of its license. For an example of what this might look like, see the above picture of the D&D Advent Calendar. Speaking of which...
• Licensed Consumer Products: Advent calendars are interesting products because they can contain just about anything, but that thing has to be small. They also require a lot of creativity to produce, as 25 different items is a lot to put into one package. If the D&D advent calendar is any indication, we’re going to see a lot more of beholders, displacer beasts, mimics, owlbears, and gelatinous cubes. There are stylized, iconic images of each monster repeated across everything that’s in the calendar, including stickers, gift tags, pencils, and ornaments.
• Toys & Games: D&D is a game first and foremost, so the release of the next edition (an edition that requires playtesting but holds out the promise for backwards compatibility) is the obvious prime mover in this space. In addition to the aforementioned licenses, D&D toys are starting to show up in the wild. Egg Embry wrote an overview of just some of the D&D action figures available. We can expect a slew of monster toys too.
• Digital Gaming: The big news here is One D&D, which uses D&D Beyond as its base. With 13 million registered users, WOTC is banking on D&D Beyond as a base for propagating One D&D to the masses. For better or worse, this includes changes to the OGL with the likely plan to defragment any digital content that currently resides on third-party platforms. There has been several failed attempts at establishing a digital home base for D&D, so it’s really important they get this right.

Cocks has never hidden his digital ambitions for D&D, and now with the company’s full resources at his disposal, we’re about to see a four quadrant D&D plan in action. Hasbro and WOTC are all in on this plan, with the future edition of D&D, the D&D movie, and its reinvigorated digital platform all unified in an attempt to make D&D not just a game, but a brand expression.

Will it work? Perhaps the more relevant question for current D&D fans is ... what if it does?

 

[Cergorach]

There is also the tendency of people to judge newbies against what they are doing now, instead of at the same time in their (in this case) RPG career.

That is of the same level of fairness in comparing a professional sports person versus someone playing in a social competition.

If people 'judge' inexperienced people by their own experienced experiences, then they are fools! And I'm sure there are many of those. But often in these situations people are either looking for a certain skill set with 'enough' experience or 'potential'. See it as work, it is foolish to expect someone just out of school to have 5 years of experience in skills xyz (and still people ask for that). And that is why so many young people are feeling prosecuted, as they lack that experience and have no way to get that experience NOW... What you could look for is 'potential' in inexperienced players, a certain 'quality' in players... And both in work and running RPGs, you need to have the skills to draw that potential out, while having a ton of patience. Many DMs/GMs do not have that skill and/or patience to ever do that and that often gets blamed on the inexperienced players, we've all seen those folks here on the forums... What people tend to forget that while you might have experience in playing RPGs (both as a player and DM/GM), you might just be as inexperienced in teaching young people and need to learn as well... Many people are way to proud to recongnize those shortcomings in themselves and would never accept that from a couple of 'no-good' kids (and often not from anyone else either)...

The comparison between professional sports and, what you call social competition, is horribly skewed. As most people have not the build/mind or the talent for professional sports, thus they will never reach that level. While RPGs in general is a sort of social competition. Comparing that to a professional streamer/actor group on Youtube/Twitch would be completely unrealistic, as most of the RPG players will never ever get to that level of acting. Not everyone is created equally, so some will never become 'good' at RPGs, and that can be perfectly alright when everyone is having fun!

 

[Cergorach]

Writing apologia for him seems a bit left field.

You are just as much of a problem as he is, ready to judge/scream and a reading apprehension of 'not much' (if you think I'm writing apologia for him). Maybe put down that lance, get of that high horse and stop angling for those windmills...

 

[haakon1]

Pathfinder 2e felt to me like they were just trying to be 5e (a game I don't like) but somehow did it worse. I was sad I couldn't get into it because I love Pathfinder 1.

Yeah. I liked PF1 stuff - especially earlier stuff that was more compatible with 3.5e for my 3.5e D&D Greyhawk campaigns, running since launch day.

I liked PF1 enough to go to Paizocon several times (I’m local), collect the rules, and buy the first 10 or so adventure paths. But I never actually played PF1 outside of Paizocon, or Pathfinder: Kingmaker on Xbox (which was very good).

With PF2, I said “meh” and bought none of it after hearing here it’s not compatible with PF1 or any D&D version. My thoughts were basically: I’d don’t need an 8th variant on D&D to collect and learn - just as I eventually said “no more“ to 4e and “meh, if someone else runs it, I’ll play“ to 5e, I felt no compulsion to “upgrade” in PF world. (Unlike with 5e, nobody I knew was playing PF2.)

These days Paizo gets none of my money (though I buy PF1 materials by Raging Swan on DriveThruRPG), which I find a bit sad.

New editions are a good way to monetize your existing customers, but also a good way to lose them.

 

[haakon1]

Maybe they'll forget all the lessons they've learned over the past decade or two.

I worry they didn’t learn the lessons of D&D’s bankruptcy in the 2e era. Overextended into new areas, poorly managed their finances and HR. Have they read “Slaying the Dragon”, the business history of that collapse? My guess is creatives like Mearls are well aware, but the business people are not.

 

[billd91]

Yeah. I liked PF1 stuff - especially earlier stuff that was more compatible with 3.5e for my 3.5e D&D Greyhawk campaigns, running since launch day.

I liked PF1 enough to go to Paizocon several times (I’m local), collect the rules, and buy the first 10 or so adventure paths. But I never actually played PF1 outside of Paizocon, or Pathfinder: Kingmaker on Xbox (which was very good).

With PF2, I said “meh” and bought none of it after hearing here it’s not compatible with PF1 or any D&D version. My thoughts were basically: I’d don’t need an 8th variant on D&D to collect and learn - just as I eventually said “no more“ to 4e and “meh, I someone runs it, I’ll play to 5e”, I felt no compulsion to “upgrade” in PF world.

These days Paizo gets none of my money (though I buy PF1 materials by Raging Swan on DriveThruRPG), which I find a bit sad.

New editions are a good way to monetize your existing customers, but also a good way to lose them.

I'm in a similar boat with respect to Paizo, though it seems I played and ran a lot more PF1 in home campaigns than you did (and I played PFS at GenCon, GaryCon, and Gamehole Con rather than Paizocon). PF2 lost me and I prefer 5e to it by far. 4e and PF1 switched me from WotC to Paizo as a customer, PF2 and 5e reversed the switch. I even ended my sub to the APs, which was kind of a painful decision since I had started my sub as a conversion from Dungeon Magazine and maintained it all through the PF1 APs.

 

[payn]

I worry they didn’t learn the lessons of D&D’s bankruptcy in the 2e era. Overextended into new areas, poorly managed their finances and HR. Have they read “Slaying the Dragon”, the business history of that collapse? My guess is creatives like Mearls are well aware, but the business people are not.

The differences in businesses are not even comparable today.

 

[payn]

I'm in a similar boat with respect to Paizo, though it seems I played and ran a lot more PF1 in home campaigns than you did (and I played PFS at GenCon, GaryCon, and Gamehole Con rather than Paizocon). PF2 lost me and I prefer 5e to it by far. 4e and PF1 switched me from WotC to Paizo as a customer, PF2 and 5e reversed the switch. I even ended my sub to the APs, which was kind of a painful decision since I had started my sub as a conversion from Dungeon Magazine and maintained it all through the PF1 APs.

I was sad about that too because I vastly prefer Paizo adventure material. My journey with D&D and PF has been the same.

 

[haakon1]

The one you grew up with is usually your favorite.

Solid theory, but not true for all 5e refuseniks.

I started with AD&D (1e) when I was 13, and my “forever edition” of 3.5e came out when I was 34. I’m still fond of AD&D, and a LOT of what I DM are 1e scenarios, but for actual rules, I mostly don’t use it.

I do still reference AD&D (1e) rules for things like building up manors the PC’s are developing. Reference, but not follow verbatim.

 

[Oofta]

I worry they didn’t learn the lessons of D&D’s bankruptcy in the 2e era. Overextended into new areas, poorly managed their finances and HR. Have they read “Slaying the Dragon”, the business history of that collapse? My guess is creatives like Mearls are well aware, but the business people are not.

The expansion into products other than focusing on the core printed book business is what gives me hope because it takes some of the pressure off of the publish or perish side of things. Time will tell, but the three core books are still selling fairly well and many people are coming around to the idea of the long tail of getting profits with minimal investment. I guess I've just chosen to be an optimist, it's better than assuming gloom and doom all the time.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

I think D&D is similar to James Bond, Dr. Who, and now Star Wars in one regard.

The one you grew up with is usually your favorite. Whatever came before was "quaint" and whatever the future holds is a weak candle to the blaze of the glory days when you were a bit shorter and didn't have to cook all of your own meals.

I don't think that's really true.

I mean, maybe me and my players are weird, but no-one really wishes we were still playing 2E, which is what we all started with. The only edition anyone in my group sometimes wants to go back to is 4E, and it's two specific players - who habitually play Rogues and Fighters respectively. Both of them sometimes moan about how 5E isn't as much fun as 4E, and frankly, I can see why - 4E gave both classes a hell of a lot more and more interesting tools in combat, and even slightly more out-of-combat, because of the sheer number of Feats you get, which could easily be used to add skills, ritual magic, and so on (and which had no competition with ASIs).

Personally some of the very best RPGs I've ever seen, I didn't see until I was 40 or older. The state of RPG design now is hugely, insanely better than it was in, say 1989, when I started out. Because of two big factors:

1) We've had 30+ years of learning shown by RPGs succeeding and failing at stuff.

2) We've got the internet to communicate those ideas and discuss RPG design theory, and even when we don't agree, if we listen, we find out stuff.