6E Theory Thoughts on the balance of classes across editions (past, present, future)

[Pedantic]

I think it'd be perfectly possible to add to the skill rules by giving examples of what is possible for someone with each rank of proficiency. Basic +2 you can do the fairly mundane things that the 5.5 rules suggest; +3, you're getting into the realm of hard to justify as being humanly (dwarfly, elfly) possible; +6, you can give Atlas a short break with your Athletics.

I think that's both insufficient and directionally wrong. You have to actually write real abilities that spell out what they do, or you end up back in negotiation territory, no matter how descriptively you write your examples. You want to give access to the gameplay loop that spells offer to everyone; instead of "can I do X?" or "I'll try X, how do we resolve that?" you want players to have access to abilities that aren't negotiable in effect.

You need to lay out unimpeachable abilities (you can climb rough surfaces at 1/2 speed at DC Y, you can climb perfectly smooth surfaces at full speed at DC X, etc.) so that players can know and use them, or they'll revert back to negotiation anyway, and all you've done is quibbled about the scale.

 

[CreamCloud0]

I've no idea what this ability is you're talking about, but 2 out of 8 is 25%. .250 isn't a bad batting average, which makes this worth trying at every opportunity provided those attempts carry no obvious drawback.

they're talking about tactical mind, about how if you used it on 8 hypothetical checks only the two that actually pass get a use of second wind 'consumed', 8 checks were only picked arbitrarily so it's not actually 2 out of 8 success ratio.

 

[ECMO3]

That's not how math works. Of those 8 checks, the result will only be changed twice.
I mean, heck, if the fighter isn't even running out of Second Winds, then it's not adjusting that many results is it?

That is how it works. What you are missing is on most checks there is no difference between a 0 and a +4. Without second wind if a 0 and a +4 PC make 5 rolls, the most likely result is that they are different on only one of those five rolls.

On 80% of checks these two would be identical without considering Tactical Mind.

Rolling a D20 generates a uniform distribution between 1 and 20. On a DC 15 check, the only time someone with a 0 differs from someone with a +4 is when the number rolled on the D20 is between 11 and 14. On all other numbers the results are the same.

Which means that the MAXIMUM this could impact is 5 rolls.

We are talking about a bias being applied which affects the chance of succeeding on a check, that bias exists on every roll as long as a use of 2nd Wind is available. 5 checks attempted in one day is where the results most favor the PC with 2 uses of 2nd Wind (they are actually closer if they only attempt 1 or 2 checks than it is if they attempt 5).

If we compare a PC with a +4 and a PC with a +0 and 2 uses of Tactical Mind rolling against a DC15 check hereare the averages:

1 check in a day: +4 averages 0.5 successes, +0 with Tactical Mind average 0.57 successes and uses on average 0.28 uses of Tactical Mind
2 checks in a day: +4 averages 1 success, +0 with Tactical Mind average 1.15 successes and uses 0.55 uses of Tactical Mind
3 checks in a day: +4 averages 1.5 successes, +0 with Tactical Mind average 1.70 successes and uses 0.8 uses of Tactical Mind
4 checks in a day: +4 averages 2 successes,+0 with Tactical Mind average 2.23 successes and uses 1.02 uses of Tactical Mind
5 checks in a day: +4 averages 2.5 successes, +0 with Tactical Mind average 2.72 successes and uses 1.22 uses of Tactical Mind
6 checks in a day: +4 averages 3 successes, +0 with Tactical Mind average 3.18 successes and uses 1.38 uses of Tactical Mind
7 checks in a day: +4 averages 3.5 successes, +0 with Tactical Mind average 3.61 successes and uses 1.51 uses of Tactical Mind
8 checks in a day: +4 averages 4 successes, +0 with Tactical Mind average 4.02 successes and uses 1.61 uses of Tactical Mind
9 checks in a day: +4 averages 4.5 successes, +0 with Tactical Mind average 4.4 successes and uses 1.70 uses of Tactical Mind

You need to make 9 checks on average in a day before the person with the +4 is better at passing DC15 checks than a person with a +0 and 2 uses of Tactical Mind available.

4-5 checks is actually where the difference most favors the person with 2 uses of Tactical Mind.

And, as you say, since you're not going to run out of Second WInds, that means you're only influencing 2-3 results per long rest.

Right and changing 2 results out of 8 means most of the time you will have outperformed someone with a much better ability.

To put it another way that might make it easier - It only changes the outcome 2-3 times per Long Rest, but it only needs to change the outcome 1-2 times per Long rest for the Fighter to be better in play than the PC with the higher ability.

IMO, the problem with Tactical Mind is that it's random. If it was simply, "Ok, burn a Second Wind and turn a failed check into a success",

All skill checks are Random unless your bonus is enough to ensure success and you do not burn a use of Second Wind unless you turn a failed check into success. The use does not get used up if it is still a failure. That is why it remains a bias to the mean for so long.

For example I roll a 7 on a DC15 check, with my 0 it is a 7, with +4 it is an 11. Both of these are failures. I try Tactical Mind and I roll a 6 it is also still a failure but I did not burn any 2nd Wind uses then we both roll an 8 and fail again I can try TM again and then we both roll a 16 and it doesn't matter and then we both roll a 12 you succeed and I can try to succeed ....

No matter how you slice this, it's only going to change 2 maybe 3 results per long rest.

It only needs to change it twice for the lower score Fighter to be better in play.

1. How often? How often is Tactical Mind making a difference? Because something like Guidance makes a difference all the time.

Ok this is where I think you are getting lost. You are applying different standards for evaluating these two and are not grasping the statistics involved. In one case you are talking about discreet uses and in another you are talking about a bias to the mean roll. The bias does not always affect a specific discreet check, in fact it rarely does but the bias alters the mean and the expected result as long as it is in place. To put it another way, having Guidance does not always make a difference and having a high ability score does not always make a difference, in fact they rarely do.

For example, Guidance results in a 1-4 uniform distribution summed with a uniform 1-20 distribution. Adding these together results in a trapezoidal distribution with a mean of 13. Guidance affects 12.5% of checks, not "all the time". 87.5% of the time if you use Guidance and then try a check the result will be the same as if you did not use Guidance. On 87.5% of rolls guidance is meaningless.

Similarly having +4 applies a constant bias to the mean of the uniform 1-20 Distribution resulting in a mean of 14.5. The +4 only affects the outcome of an individual check 20% of the time. 80% of the time the result is the same as if you had a 0 and your +4 does not matter at all.

These things apply a bias to the mean 100% of the time (or 100% of the times it is used for guidance), and they change the expected result, but they actually affect very few discreet rolls.

Tactical Mind is the same - as long as it is not used up (i.e. you still have Second Wind uses available and intend to try it on a fail) it applies a 1-10 uniform distribution to some results on the normal 1-20 distribution, resulting in a non-standard distribution with a mean that varies based on the DC, but it also affects few individual checks (generally 27.5%) while it is in play. Because a use only expires when it affects a check, this means the bias remains in effect for many checks before it loses potency.

None of these things (Guidance, skill score, Tactical Mind) have an effect on the outcome every time you make a check. All of them affect individual checks infrequently, but all of them have a statistical power which affects the mean and expected result as long as they are in place.

SO, how can it matter 8 times if you only have 5 Second Winds per day?

Because it affects the mean result until it is used up. With a 0 vs a +4 it will make the 0 statistically more powerful through 8 checks with 2 uses.

I want to emphasize this - 8 checks is for 2 uses a day, not 5. With 5 uses it is going to result in a better chance of success for 23 checks as compared to someone with a +4.

Central to understanding this is realizing that a +4 and a +0 would get the same result on 80% of checks, it is only a narrow window (11-14 on a DC15) that there is a difference to the to PCs to start with, without even considering 2nd wind. Any time the D20 is not an 11-14 the +4 can't possibly do better than the +0.

So if we don't consider Tactical Mind, and we roll 20 DC15 checks the most likely result is that we get different results only 4 times out of 20 (+4 passes 4 times when +0 fails), 6 times they both succeed, 10 times they both fail. Tactical Mind can turn some these where there are differences into successes AND in addition it can turn some of those where BOTH PC failed into successes up to 5 times total.

So if both PCs roll 20 DC15 checks and the +0 has 5 uses of tactical mind available the most likely outcome is:

PC with +4
Mean outcome with 20 attempted checks - Passes 10 checks and fails 10 checks

PC with +0

• passes 6 checks outright
• fails 4 checks outright
• has 10 checks where TM might be used, statistically on average he ends up using tactical mind a mean 4.44 times out of this 10 for 4.44 more successes (10.44 successes total).

Mean outcome with 20 attempted checks - Passes 10.44 checks and fails 9.56 checks

Keep in mind we are comparing a PC with an 18 to a Fighter with a 10! Are you starting to understand why this ability is so powerful?

 

[ECMO3]

double post

 

[ECMO3]

they're talking about tactical mind, about how if you used it on 8 hypothetical checks only the two that actually pass get a use of second wind 'consumed', 8 checks were only picked arbitrarily so it's not actually 2 out of 8 success ratio.

You can only try to use it if you fail and you can only consume a use if it turns the failure into a success.

8 checks were not chosen arbitrarily. 8 checks were chosen because a Fighter with a +0 and 2 uses of Tactical Mind is statistically better at the first 8 checks they attempt than someone with a +4 attempting the same 8 checks. With 9 or more checks the person with the +4 is statistically better (assuming 2 uses of 2nd Wind available before the 1st check is attempted and no short rest)

Now +4 and 0 are arbitrary and 2 uses is presumably arbitrary (that 2 uses came from someone else). The reason +4 and 0 were chosen is the hypothesis presented that someone with a high ability (+4) is better than someone with a low ability (0) and Tactical Mind. That is only true if you make many checks without a rest, more than are typically made at tables I play and more than I expect are made at most tables between rests.

This also assumes that the DC is between 6 and 20. A lower DC shifts the results in favor of the PC with the higher score, a DC above 20 shifts it in favor of the PC with Tactical Mind.

 

[MichaelSomething]

Well, there's definitely some reading comprehension failures going on, and a really bizarre failure to type for some reason, but, again, it would be really nice if folks would stop trying to tell me what I'm saying and actually respond to what I am actually saying.

Clearly the issue is that you're treating D&D like a TTRPG while the people who argue against you treat D&D more like a DELTA!

D&D General Thread 'D&D may be a DELTA, not a TTRPG!'

Jun 12, 2026

D&D is too many things to just be a TTRPG, or Table Top Role Playing Game. It could be other things. For example, I believe D&D can also be described as a DELTA. What does that stand for? Let me explain! It stands for

Dungeon Master's
Experience
Lead
Through
Adjudication

This is an improvement in many ways over using the term TTRPG. for example, it starts off with Dungeon Master. The dungeon master is the most vital component of D&D, so putting that first should help signal the importance of that role. It also uses the term experience over game. A game implies things like...

• MichaelSomething
• Replies: 82
• Forum: *Dungeons & Dragons

• 

 

[ECMO3]

Take it a step further. How may adventuring days in a level? 5? Not a bad estimate IMO. That means that the absolute best the fighter can expect over the course of a level is 15 influenced rolls.

Now, compare that to a ranger casting Pass Without A Trace. Hardly a rare spell or one that no one would expect the ranger to have. It's a pretty common spell, I think. Presuming a 5 PC party, that's 5 checks with a maximized Tactical Mind effect. And, since the spell lasts an hour, it's entirely plausible that it might be 10 or even 15 checks.

No it is not. It is 21 checks on average before that 5 uses is used up. If the Fighter has disadvantage on the roll it will be 13 on average with a +0.

PWT is often used prior to group Stealth checks and it is not uncommon to have no affect at all when used this way since the PCs that are good at stealth usually pass without it, and you only need half the party to pass to succeed overall.

It's possible that a ranger in one spell can influence more checks than a fighter can influence in an entire level.

Possible yes, but not likely in play if we are comparing to 5 uses of 2nd Wind, especially when you bound it by duration and concentration.

Now a +10 is a heck of a lot more powerful statistically than a +1d10 on a fail, and it is affecting multiple creatures usually, but it is not usually going to last longer or affect more checks than a full complement of 5 2nd wind uses.

It is apples and oranges but if we do compare these two:

Pass Without Trace is a lot more costly (resource, opportunity and action cost) and MUCH, MUCH more powerful for its intended use, both for the PC and anyone else within the emanation.

Tactical Mind is MUCH more versatile applying to many more situations, is more available, has zero opportunity or action cost and a very low resource cost but is MUCH weaker at bolstering Stealth both for the individual and the party.

 

[ECMO3]

LOL. The irony here in this quote is ... amazing.

You read my post WHICH WASN'T ADDRESSED TO YOU, had a nice big juicy quote addressing the poster I was actually speaking to, and you somehow ignored all of that to claim that you're reading what I'm posting.

Ok well the one that was addressed to me said " I don't really want "real" examples"

And so my question stands, how should I answer your query - "...why are you using tactical shift?" - if not with examples from play?

 

[Toe Knee Nose]

I've no idea what this ability is you're talking about, but 2 out of 8 is 25%. .250 isn't a bad batting average, which makes this worth trying at every opportunity provided those attempts carry no obvious drawback.

Because you will run out of Second Winds by the 8th check. So, any checks after that, Tactical Mind won't help you.

And, you have no control over which of those 8 checks will be affected. Not all checks are equal after all. You can just as easily turn a fairly inconsequential check into a success as a clutch check.

 

[ECMO3]

Because you will run out of Second Winds by the 8th check. So, any checks after that, Tactical Mind won't help you.

Please show the math for this.

.And, you have no control over which of those 8 checks will be affected. Not all checks are equal after all. You can just as easily turn a fairly inconsequential check into a success as a clutch check.

You have complete control over which attempts you try it on. You can choose to leave a failed and fairly inconsequential check a failure.

What you have no control over is the D20 roll and the D20 is by far the dominant factor in success or failure in tier 1 and tier 2. The difference in having a great ability score and a poor ability score matters little in terms of chance of success or failure on an individual check.

Finally how often do you have 8 difficult and consequential checks between rests and how many of those are typically passed in your games where Tactical Mind is apparently not used at all?