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Blog Post 47: Being compatiable with success
Posted 6th August 2009 at 03:17 AM by MichaelSomething
Updated 23rd September 2009 at 02:32 AM by MichaelSomething
Updated 23rd September 2009 at 02:32 AM by MichaelSomething
Well it seems that Paizo has sold out their PatherFinder Roleplaying Game Core RuleBook; a week before it’s even out. This means that there is huge demand for it. While many people are congratulating the people at Paizo, I was initially baffled by the news.
Okay, imagine you want to open a restaurant but the bank wouldn’t give you the loan you needed for it. However, the bank would give out a loan to a person opening a gas station. Therefore, you decide to open a gas station with a restaurant attached to it. You get the loan you needed (because you have a gas station) and you get to do what you wanted in the first place (which is run a restaurant). Now, what if it turns out the gas station is the bigger draw then the restaurant; even though you’re a top chef who won numerous cooking awards?
The lesson here? Don’t try to combine stories from Diners, Drive-in, and Dives with RPG industry analysis. The question here? Why is the Core Rulebook vastly more popular then their (very good) adventures and other RPG accessories? It’s a bit of a puzzle to me. Well if people simply wanted quality products, then surely all of their other stuff would have sold better? I guess people really do want to keep the 3rd edition rule set alive and they buy Pathfinder as a means of doing so. This must be proof that the core rulebooks really are the big sellers of an RPG system.
Now, where can we fine proof on how many of the Core Rulebooks sold? According to their announcement, it has sold “preorders more than five times greater than for any previous product in Paizo's seven-year history.” That includes Dungeon Magazine, right? Well Dungeon 142 includes a “Statement of Ownership, Management, and Circulation.” According to that, they sold on average about 32,000 magazines per months. Of those, 23,000 are though “Non-USPS paid distribution” and 8,500 are though “Paid/Requested Outside County Mail Subscriptions.” Depending on what percentage/sub-group of those sold magazines can count as pre-orders, the number of sold core rulebooks can be anywhere from 40,000 to 150,000 copies.
Another thing to consider is that Paizo will bring over 1,000 copies of to GenCon 2009 (look for a coment from Erik Mona). If they expect to sell 5 percent of their stock at GenCon, that means they produced about 20,000 copies. I could never imagine a company selling such a percentage of it’s product just at GenCon. It must be lower then that. If it’s between one to two percent (a more likely scenario), the total number of copies could be anywhere from 50,000 to 100,000 copies.
Yet another number to consider is that the Beta Playtest has been downloaded over 50,000 times. If we assume that one out of five downloader become buyers, that means 10,000 copies sold. When it comes down to it, all we can do is guess at how many copies have sold. Whatever number of copies they sold, I can say for sure that Pathfinder is a success.
Since the Pathfinder Core Rulebook is such a hot item, how long will it take to sell out at GenCon 2009? I bet they sell out the first day, before lunch. Is it an outrageous guess? Well Pathfinder has outrageous demand! I just hate to be at GenCon trying to get one of those books. I hope those buyers have a good combat maneuver bonus.
Okay, imagine you want to open a restaurant but the bank wouldn’t give you the loan you needed for it. However, the bank would give out a loan to a person opening a gas station. Therefore, you decide to open a gas station with a restaurant attached to it. You get the loan you needed (because you have a gas station) and you get to do what you wanted in the first place (which is run a restaurant). Now, what if it turns out the gas station is the bigger draw then the restaurant; even though you’re a top chef who won numerous cooking awards?
The lesson here? Don’t try to combine stories from Diners, Drive-in, and Dives with RPG industry analysis. The question here? Why is the Core Rulebook vastly more popular then their (very good) adventures and other RPG accessories? It’s a bit of a puzzle to me. Well if people simply wanted quality products, then surely all of their other stuff would have sold better? I guess people really do want to keep the 3rd edition rule set alive and they buy Pathfinder as a means of doing so. This must be proof that the core rulebooks really are the big sellers of an RPG system.
Now, where can we fine proof on how many of the Core Rulebooks sold? According to their announcement, it has sold “preorders more than five times greater than for any previous product in Paizo's seven-year history.” That includes Dungeon Magazine, right? Well Dungeon 142 includes a “Statement of Ownership, Management, and Circulation.” According to that, they sold on average about 32,000 magazines per months. Of those, 23,000 are though “Non-USPS paid distribution” and 8,500 are though “Paid/Requested Outside County Mail Subscriptions.” Depending on what percentage/sub-group of those sold magazines can count as pre-orders, the number of sold core rulebooks can be anywhere from 40,000 to 150,000 copies.
Another thing to consider is that Paizo will bring over 1,000 copies of to GenCon 2009 (look for a coment from Erik Mona). If they expect to sell 5 percent of their stock at GenCon, that means they produced about 20,000 copies. I could never imagine a company selling such a percentage of it’s product just at GenCon. It must be lower then that. If it’s between one to two percent (a more likely scenario), the total number of copies could be anywhere from 50,000 to 100,000 copies.
Yet another number to consider is that the Beta Playtest has been downloaded over 50,000 times. If we assume that one out of five downloader become buyers, that means 10,000 copies sold. When it comes down to it, all we can do is guess at how many copies have sold. Whatever number of copies they sold, I can say for sure that Pathfinder is a success.
Since the Pathfinder Core Rulebook is such a hot item, how long will it take to sell out at GenCon 2009? I bet they sell out the first day, before lunch. Is it an outrageous guess? Well Pathfinder has outrageous demand! I just hate to be at GenCon trying to get one of those books. I hope those buyers have a good combat maneuver bonus.
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