As long as we are talking hypothetically...

[thecasualoblivion]

...comment on your response to the following scenario:

1. 4E is successful, maintains itself as the top selling and most played RPG, and runs 8-10 years in its current direction before being replaced by a 5E even less like previous editions
2. Pathfinder tapers off after a successful launch by 3PP standards, and achieves a stable presence on par with True20 or Mutants and Masterminds.
3. The 3.5E playing community shrinks over time until its on par with people playing previous editions.
4. OGL based gaming begins a slow decline, with the big names soldiering on and fewer and fewer new products being released.

 

[Nifft]

I choose to panic.

That always helps.

Cheers, -- N

 

[Shroomy]

Its a likely scenario, though I do think that Pathfinder will be more successful and widely played than M&M or True20 (by far).

 

[ShinHakkaider]

...comment on your response to the following scenario:

1. 4E is successful, maintains itself as the top selling and most played RPG, and runs 8-10 years in its current direction before being replaced by a 5E even less like previous editions

I don't see myself ever returning to WOTC or D&D as a fan or customer so their future has no bearing on my own as a gamer.

2. Pathfinder tapers off after a successful launch by 3PP standards, and achieves a stable presence on par with True20 or Mutants and Masterminds.

I don't see Pathfinder trailing off. I think the Pazio / Pathfinder fans are just as fanatical and loyal as 4E fans. I know as long as I'm able to run games I'll keep supporting them.

3. The 3.5E playing community shrinks over time until its on par with people playing previous editions.

The materials are still out there and available and can be cannibalized for Pathfinder.

4. OGL based gaming begins a slow decline, with the big names soldiering on and fewer and fewer new products being released.

I'm fine with this as I personally have enought OGL based material to choke an entire corral of donkeys.

In a nutshell as long as I can find gamers who want to play Pathfinder or other games that I play I'll keep running and playing. When that stops, I walk away from the hobby.

 

[Wormwood]

I continue playing fully supported 4e with my group, possibly enjoying (your hypothetical) 5e even more when it appears.

As for the 3.5/pathfinder/whatever? I shrug and move on, since it has no bearing on my gaming life whatsoever.

 

[ggroy]

1. 4E is successful, maintains itself as the top selling and most played RPG, and runs 8-10 years in its current direction before being replaced by a 5E even less like previous editions

If there are no major future market mistakes made by WotC, I can possibly see this scenario happening. Though this is assuming Hasbro has an interest in keeping the tabletop rpg WotC division around, and not selling it. No idea what the top executives at Hasbro think of WotC.

On the other hand, all bets are off if Hasbro/WotC royally messes up something which drastically affects D&D sales.

2. Pathfinder tapers off after a successful launch by 3PP standards, and achieves a stable presence on par with True20 or Mutants and Masterminds.

I have no idea what direction Pathfinder will go. At the present time, it may very well be a coin toss.

3. The 3.5E playing community shrinks over time until its on par with people playing previous editions.

This I wouldn't be too surprised to see this happening over a 10 to 20+ year period.

For example, these days I have a hard time finding anybody locally who is interested in playing a regular campaign using 1E AD&D or the red box basic set D&D. Usually what ends up happening is I find a group of old friends who I use to game with ages ago, where we have a marathon session of playing 1E AD&D or basic set D&D over a long weekend.

4. OGL based gaming begins a slow decline, with the big names soldiering on and fewer and fewer new products being released.

I can see OGL possibly going this way, if the established 3pp companies start making their own games using their own independent rules systems.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

...comment on your response to the following scenario:

1. 4E is successful, maintains itself as the top selling and most played RPG, and runs 8-10 years in its current direction before being replaced by a 5E even less like previous editions
2. Pathfinder tapers off after a successful launch by 3PP standards, and achieves a stable presence on par with True20 or Mutants and Masterminds.
3. The 3.5E playing community shrinks over time until its on par with people playing previous editions.
4. OGL based gaming begins a slow decline, with the big names soldiering on and fewer and fewer new products being released.

Overall, I think that 1) is highly probable, that 2) is highly likely, though I think W&W and a couple of others may also be in that category.

3) is somewhat less likely, IMHO. It really is a gorilla of a game.

4) is probable, but the OGL is big enough that a minimal number of quality products could keep it going strong for quite some time, even decades.

 

[ggroy]

3) is somewhat less likely, IMHO. It really is a gorilla of a game.

1E AD&D was a big gorilla for its time (ie. late 1970's through most of the 1980's).

Look where it is today.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

Its a likely scenario, though I do think that Pathfinder will be more successful and widely played than M&M or True20 (by far).

I don't see Pathfinder trailing off. I think the Pazio / Pathfinder fans are just as fanatical and loyal as 4E fans. I know as long as I'm able to run games I'll keep supporting them.


The materials are still out there and available and can be cannibalized for Pathfinder.

The way I see Pathfinder is as a piece of the 3.5E puzzle, and that it is unlikely it will eclipse 3.5E itself in the RPG community. As I predict that the 3.5E community will dwindle to the levels we see AD&D played within 3-4 years, I would expect Pathfinder to follow suit.

If there are no major future market mistakes made by WotC, I can possibly see this scenario happening. Though this is assuming Hasbro has an interest in keeping the tabletop rpg WotC division around, and not selling it. No idea what the top executives at Hasbro think of WotC.

On the other hand, all bets are off if Hasbro/WotC royally messes up something which drastically affects D&D sales.

I think you vastly overestimate this. WotC is much more customer friendly than big names(in the gaming world) such as Games Workshop or TSR. Those companies weren't ruined by their marketing or customer relations(TSR was ruined by bad business decisions, not maketing or customer relations), and I see no reason to expect such from WotC's current or future practices. I also think people vastly overrate Hasbro as the big bad evil corporation.

This I wouldn't be too surprised to see this happening over a 10 to 20+ year period.

For example, these days I have a hard time finding anybody locally who is interested in playing a regular campaign using 1E AD&D or the red box basic set D&D. Usually what ends up happening is I find a group of old friends who I use to game with ages ago, where we have a marathon session of playing 1E AD&D or basic set D&D over a long weekend.

I think it will be quicker than that. More like 3 years.

Overall, I think that 1) is highly probable, that 2) is highly likely, though I think W&W and a couple of others may also be in that category.

3) is somewhat less likely, IMHO. It really is a gorilla of a game.

4) is probable, but the OGL is big enough that a minimal number of quality products could keep it going strong for quite some time, even decades.

On 2) I just gave those as examples. Other games would fall into that category.

3) As I said, I think it will take time, as in 3-4 years. I don't see 3.5E recruiting enough new players to replace departing ones to maintain its current popularity.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

1E AD&D was a big gorilla for its time (ie. late 1970's through most of the 1980's).

Look where it is today.

AD&D was losing market share when it was replaced with 2Ed. After a surge of sales, the game continued to lose market share to games like SJG's GURPS, Herosystems' HERO, White Wolf's WoD and Palladium's RIFTS- games that owed little or nothing to TSR's IP.

In contrast, 3.5 was still top of the market when 4Ed hit the shelves, and some of its main competitors were derived from it. Its core mechanics had highly saturated the RPG market in a way totally unlike previous editions of the game. And only GURPS can compare with how many games had D20 versions ported into the system (for good or ill)- something that never really happened with previous editions of D&D, nor 4Ed as of yet.