Mercurius
Legend
It has only been a month since I started this thread but we've seen the publication of the first few Essentials products and I think we all have a better sense about what Essentials is (a new entry point and format of the 4E rules) and what it is not (a new or even revised edition). It is "4.5" in that WotC hopes that 4E players buy these new products and are making at least some of them useful in their own right (e.g. Rules Compendium), but it is not 4.5 in that the new rules books do not make the "old" 4E hardcovers defunct (and thus it is not deserving of the same sort of ire that 3.5 initially got).
So my question: What's ahead for D&D and WotC? When will we see a 5E? Will we see a 5E? What about revised core rulebooks? Or will WotC take a different route and just keep on adding and adjusting bits and pieces, here and there, updating the game through D&D Insider rather than through new hard copies? Even more so, what is the approach that WotC will take with D&D from this point forward? Are they going to continue with the product treadmill approach that we've seen with every previous edition? Or does D&D Insider offer new possibilities, even to get off the treadmill or at least change the nature of it?
One thing I see going forward is a more clearly defined relationship between D&D Insider as the core game itself and the hardcopy books as temporal products that introduce new concepts and ideas. But it is the ongoing, ever-changing D&D Insider product that is and will be D&D. This will not invalidate or take away the need to have actual physical products, but it will clarify that the only truly up-to-date edition of D&D, complete with errata and new rules, is virtual, can only be virtual.
We will see new supplements in the next few years but nothing like what we saw with 3E and 3.5E. By my count we saw about 100 hardcover books from 2000 to 2008; so far we have about a third that in just two and a half years of 4E, but I would guess that this number will taper, so that rather than 15 or so hardcovers a year, we'll see maybe half a dozen. We will see more softcover books, more box sets, and more related products like the board games. But again, the source document and primary reference for the rules of D&D will be Insider.
In 2011 we will see a major new Adventure Tool introduced. I'm not sure exactly what that will be, but I think we will both see some kind of encounter creator, an adventure and even campaign designer, and possibly even a tool to create feats, classes, powers, magic items, etc; in other words, tools to facilitate the creation of house rules. In the pre-3E days the idea was to offer, package and sell optional rules; with 3E and the OGL the idea was to provide a framework for others to publish options and adventures to strengthen the official line; the future will be to create a set of indispensible tools for the creation of house rules and options by individual DMs. In other words, where the past was offering finished products built with official "secret tools," the future will be to offer the tools themselves (for a price!).
At some point in either late 2011 or the first half of 2012 we will see revised core rulebooks. But again, they won't as much be a "4.5" as they will be the physical manifestation of the rules that exist already in the form of D&D Insider.
Now you could say that with this approach there will never need to be a game called "D&D 5E." But I would think that at some point there still will be. It won't simply be a revision like I'm predicting we will see in 2011 of 2012. At some point WotC will start holding back new stuff; or rather, they'll keep producing for 4E, but will hold back any major changes, instead saving some kind of major innovation for 5E. To use a card game analogy, WotC will try to save a few aces for 5E and play everything else they have until then.
So my question: What's ahead for D&D and WotC? When will we see a 5E? Will we see a 5E? What about revised core rulebooks? Or will WotC take a different route and just keep on adding and adjusting bits and pieces, here and there, updating the game through D&D Insider rather than through new hard copies? Even more so, what is the approach that WotC will take with D&D from this point forward? Are they going to continue with the product treadmill approach that we've seen with every previous edition? Or does D&D Insider offer new possibilities, even to get off the treadmill or at least change the nature of it?
One thing I see going forward is a more clearly defined relationship between D&D Insider as the core game itself and the hardcopy books as temporal products that introduce new concepts and ideas. But it is the ongoing, ever-changing D&D Insider product that is and will be D&D. This will not invalidate or take away the need to have actual physical products, but it will clarify that the only truly up-to-date edition of D&D, complete with errata and new rules, is virtual, can only be virtual.
We will see new supplements in the next few years but nothing like what we saw with 3E and 3.5E. By my count we saw about 100 hardcover books from 2000 to 2008; so far we have about a third that in just two and a half years of 4E, but I would guess that this number will taper, so that rather than 15 or so hardcovers a year, we'll see maybe half a dozen. We will see more softcover books, more box sets, and more related products like the board games. But again, the source document and primary reference for the rules of D&D will be Insider.
In 2011 we will see a major new Adventure Tool introduced. I'm not sure exactly what that will be, but I think we will both see some kind of encounter creator, an adventure and even campaign designer, and possibly even a tool to create feats, classes, powers, magic items, etc; in other words, tools to facilitate the creation of house rules. In the pre-3E days the idea was to offer, package and sell optional rules; with 3E and the OGL the idea was to provide a framework for others to publish options and adventures to strengthen the official line; the future will be to create a set of indispensible tools for the creation of house rules and options by individual DMs. In other words, where the past was offering finished products built with official "secret tools," the future will be to offer the tools themselves (for a price!).
At some point in either late 2011 or the first half of 2012 we will see revised core rulebooks. But again, they won't as much be a "4.5" as they will be the physical manifestation of the rules that exist already in the form of D&D Insider.
Now you could say that with this approach there will never need to be a game called "D&D 5E." But I would think that at some point there still will be. It won't simply be a revision like I'm predicting we will see in 2011 of 2012. At some point WotC will start holding back new stuff; or rather, they'll keep producing for 4E, but will hold back any major changes, instead saving some kind of major innovation for 5E. To use a card game analogy, WotC will try to save a few aces for 5E and play everything else they have until then.
