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I can't think of a credible scenario where such a huge and game-changing announcement, requiring likely months of heavy build-up, planning, and investment, would simply be canceled at the last minute.
__________________ Evil is a word with many possible capitalizations. Chasing the DM, 4E campaign journal and occasional soapbox.
I can't think of a credible scenario where such a huge and game-changing announcement, requiring likely months of heavy build-up, planning, and investment, would simply be canceled at the last minute.
I actually can, I've seen it happen. Not in the RPG business, but in the banking business, and actually rather late. The bank wanted to move from office hours to pretty much 24/7 availability of services, both the business side and the IT side agreed that this should happen. Something went seriously wrong at one of the meetings between the business and IT departments and the business started informing the clients that they were now open until midnight, extra personnel was being hired, marketing was ready to launch a rather big campaign. IT was not aware of everything that was happening and assumed that everything was in preparation and not actual implementation. By some odd luck I heard what the clients were being told and I realized that IT just wasn't ready yet (backup procedures took to long every night and systems would have to be inaccessible at those times). It took me most of a day to find everything out and pull on the brakes at the business end. The really funny thing is that I was working at the IT helpdesk at the time and this was so far out of my responsibilities it wasn't even funny.
I could see it happen within WotC, plans to announce 5E at GenCon 2011, marketing goes off, design goes off. Design isn't ready, forgets to inform marketing, marketing forgets to ask, things get planned, things get canceled.
Or a market research group just determined that releasing 5E would be a bad idea and forgot to clue in marketing until the last possible moment...
__________________ The Helix - Datahaven When cutting edge isn't sharp enough. I will not accept that. No regret.
WotC_Trevor said that everything they wanted to talk about at gencon they did, so no cancelled last minute announcements.
Take from that what you will...
__________________ Pablo El Vagabundo
"Mercy!? You want MERCY? I'M CHAOTIC NEUTRAL!!!" One of my rituals is in Goodman Games's Book of Rituals.
Humpty Dumpty exploring the tomb
Humpty Dumpty found Acererak's doom
All of the clerics and all of the scrolls
Couldn't resurrect Humpty Dumpty's soul.
If they confirm a 5e announcement was canceled that is basically doing a 5e announcement. I did hear rumors from some pretty reliable sources at the con though.
I was expecting, and indeed kinda hoping for, an announcement of 5e at GenCon.
But it didn't happen. So be it. Personally, I'm not going to get drawn into any conspiracy theories about last minute cancellations, or the like. It just doesn't 'feel' right.
In fact, I think I'm done cloud watching for the time being. They'll announce 5e when they're ready. In the meantime, I'll get back to working on my homebrew version of the game - and if that's ready first then WotC are out of luck!
I was not at Deloitte when it happened - but they even had the new name for the consulting group printed up on mugs and bags when the plug got pulled to spin off the consulting group (post Sarbanes-Oxley). A SNAFU turned into a "great decision" as it turned out
It might have been a truck load of 5e mugs got hijacked on the way to the convention center, thus messing up the announcement.
Honestly, I don't know either way. Its possible that they were set to announce something (even if they had minimal work on a finished product) and then pulled back. Or they could have circulated rumors and then did nothing just to see what bloggers and message board people would write about. If it was an echo chamber of 'bad idea' then that gives them some informal market research.
I could see it happen within WotC, plans to announce 5E at GenCon 2011, marketing goes off, design goes off. Design isn't ready, forgets to inform marketing, marketing forgets to ask, things get planned, things get canceled.
I hear what you're saying but there's no actual evidence (beyond anecdotes, suppositions, assumptions and agendas voiced on this board) that WotC have a 5E so far along in development that an announcement was prepared for GenCon. And on top of that, there's next to no benefit to the company in keeping it quiet for so long! For Wizards RPG there is nothing bigger, ever, than the announcement of a new edition of D&D. I'd expect countdown timers, viral marketing, the whole shebang.
__________________ Evil is a word with many possible capitalizations. Chasing the DM, 4E campaign journal and occasional soapbox.
I hear what you're saying but there's no actual evidence (beyond anecdotes, suppositions, assumptions and agendas voiced on this board) that WotC have a 5E so far along in development that an announcement was prepared for GenCon. And on top of that, there's next to no benefit to the company in keeping it quiet for so long! For Wizards RPG there is nothing bigger, ever, than the announcement of a new edition of D&D. I'd expect countdown timers, viral marketing, the whole shebang.
Nothing undercuts current sales like the announcement of a new version. People simply stop buying the current stuff and wait for the new stuff as much as they can.
The longer the wait between the announcement and the unveiling, the longer the walk through a desert of sales weakness.
Here's me taking off my mod's hat and hypothesizing out of whole cloth.
5E annoucement was planned and ready to go as an Apple-style "And one more thing..." button to the Sat product seminar. 5E is going to be a minis-based skirmish game, sold in non-random packs, with optional rules for leveling up your minis through repeated play. It will go one sale at GenCon 2012. Someone decides at the last moment that whatever they're doing doesn't need a year's leadup, and they want to save the big annoucement for D&D Experience in Feb 2012, where they can manage the whole marketing rollout of the new edition and do a better job of manging customer reaction over six months rather than a year. (As well as keeping sales up for the handful of 4E products it has just announced.)
I'm sure this is incorrect on particluars (5E may be a more traditional RPG, but I doubt it), but based on what I know of marketing people and business, it wouldn't surprise me if this is close to what went down.
Before I put my stylish mod's hat back on (complete with rakish feather), remember that I know nothing more than any of you do. However, I was fully expecting a 5E annoucement, and when it didn't come, I figured I was just plain wrong. This makes a lot more sense to me.
__________________ Most sorts of diversion in men, children and other animals, are in imitation of fighting.
Nothing undercuts current sales like the announcement of a new version. People simply stop buying the current stuff and wait for the new stuff as much as they can.
That doesn't really prove anything. Unless the announcement is immediately followed by stuff on shelves, that's always going to be the case, whether you announce it now at GenCon or later at Experience, or whenever.
__________________ Evil is a word with many possible capitalizations. Chasing the DM, 4E campaign journal and occasional soapbox.
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