On the Value of Uncertainty

Reynard

Legend
Hrothwulf, son of Beogar, Axe of the Fafnir Clan, charges forward, snarling like a wild animal as he closes the distance between himself and the frost giant. By the time he is within arm's reach, his blood is boiling and his axe is raised high. He swings, a stroke powerful enough to hew through frozen skin, taught muscle and iron like bone to sever the monster's leg. But the giant steps back away from the blow and brings his iron hammer down on Hrothwulf, piledriving him into the snow with a red spray. So ends the life of Hrothwulf, son of Beogar, Axe of the Fafnir Clan, Red Stain on the Snow.

While the preceding would be quite the anti-climactic scene for a novel or film, it is a very real possibility during the course of D&D play where the dice are as powerful determiners of the outcome of events as the player's choices or the DM's rulings. The extent to which the dice impact the “story” in a D&D game is largely dependent upon the mechanics of the game – which vary from edition to edition – as well as the regularity with which dice are rolled – which is more dependent upon the the participants of the game, both player decisions and DM rulings.

Almost invariably, combat is most likely to have its outcome determine by the uncertainty of dice since dice are rolled with more frequency (and ferocity!) in combat than any other situation in the game. Even outside of combat, however, a single dice roll has the power to drastically alter the ongoing “plot” or “story” of the game: a crucial saving throw, a desperate diplomacy attempt, even a simple roll for wandering monsters or random treasure can shake the campaign to its foundations. While this inherent uncertainty can result in unforeseen consequences to otherwise apparently innocuous or rote activities, it is just this uncertainty and these unforeseen consequences that separates the game from more linear, narrative and consequently limited forms of entertainment. No matter how skilled the writer or director of a novel or film might be, no matter how much tension he is able to convey, there is always the great likelihood that with 100 pages or 45 minutes left to go in the story, the hero of the piece is going to make it through an exciting chase or visceral fight scene. But in D&D – and RPGs in general – there is a very real possibility of something unexpected (and tragic) happening to one or more of the story's heroes (or villains) at any time, regardless of how much “plot” remains to unfold. This creates true tension, by its nature preferable to false tension.

Beyond the simple entertainment value of increased tension, uncertainty has game play impacts not applicable to other kinds of entertainment. With uncertainty always looming, participants can actively engage the game to mitigate – or take advantage of – the uncertainty. At its most basic level, this takes two forms: engaging the game system to affect the range of possible results from dice rolls, or by engaging the game through the other participants – the DM, in particular – to affect the situations in which dice are rolled.

In the first case, players can accumulate bonuses in areas where they are weak or where the dice have a disproportionate level of influence over the outcome of events. For example, in the 3rd Edition of the game, critical hits were elements of uncertainty that could create extreme results from an otherwise rote activity – namely, combat with enemies. For the most part, the possibility of a critical occurring was relatively slim and subject to basic chance. But the system provided tools with which players – and particularly unpleasant DMs and game designers – could mitigate that uncertainty, increasing both the possibility of a critical occurring against their enemies and increasing the range of the outcome of the critical. This could be accomplished through feat choice, weapon choice and other game system components. Critical hits are the most obvious example in 3rd Edition, but each edition has its own areas where players can use the game system to combat or control uncertainty.

In the second case, it isn't the player's skill at crunching numbers that allows her to mitigate uncertainty, but her skill at negotiating the non-mechanical elements of the game. Through clever planning, knowledge of the milieu and play style of the adventure being played and/or skillfully engaging the DM during the course of in game events, players can overcome obstacles or simply avoid situation in which dice have disproportionate influence on the events of the game. An example often related by “old school” players is the tendency for low level characters in the game's early editions to avoid combat at all costs. Characters were fragile and in many cases ineffectual against most enemies, so avoiding fights or, at worst, taking advantage of tactical and/or environmental factors of the utmost importance. Once the dice started flying, they will say, characters started dying. though this play style was born in the early days of the hobby, it still persists in many groups today with more modern versions of the game.

Much of what has been written above relates directly with how the players engage the game and deal with uncertainty. but as an active participant in the game, the DM is often subject to the same level of uncertainty as the players – in some cases more so, simply by virtue of having to roll a lot more dice (in the form of enemies' attacks, for example). Unlike the players, however, the DM has a degree of direct control over the game's inherent uncertainty – so much so that, if the DM wishes to, he can eliminate it entirely. The appropriateness of how – and when, where and why – the DM chooses to exercise this power is open to debate and has inspired innumerable “memorable” discussions. Suffice it to say, though, that if the DM chooses to allow uncertainty to hold and accepts the results of dice rolls, the DM enjoys the same tension, the same joy of the unforeseen that the players do.
 

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DrunkonDuty

he/him
Interesting essay there, Reynard. As usual.

The point that it brings up in my mind is the frisson that results from the uncertainty is the reason we play the game as opposed to sitting around telling stories. If there was no uncertainty an RPG wouldn't be an RPG. Mmmmm. Thinking a bit more about that, I think I must correct myself. Not just the uncertainty, a novel has uncertainty in the sense that we don't know the outcome in advance, but the being there at the time the probabilty curve collapses and of being able to directly influence the outcome. I think there's a different type of uncertainty. Not wondering 'what has the author decided' but 'what will happen.' There's probably grammatical terms like 'perfect past tense' and so forth that could be applied to delineate these two states of uncertainty.

Purely in the interest of generating discussion: which of the two methods of conflict resolution (dice rolling or role playing) do you feel is the more inherently RPG solution?
 

Mark

CreativeMountainGames.com
I think there's a different type of uncertainty. Not wondering 'what has the author decided' but 'what will happen.' There's probably grammatical terms like 'perfect past tense' and so forth that could be applied to delineate these two states of uncertainty.


One could call them Interactive Uncertainty and Passive Uncertainty, I suppose. Great essay, Fox!
 



Aus_Snow

First Post
Thanks Reynard, that was a pleasure to read. It's also reminded me of one of the things I love and value most about RPGs.
 

rounser

First Post
Hrothwulf, son of Beogar, Axe of the Fafnir Clan, charges forward, snarling like a wild animal as he closes the distance between himself and the frost giant. By the time he is within arm's reach, his blood is boiling and his axe is raised high. He swings, a stroke powerful enough to hew through frozen skin, taught muscle and iron like bone to sever the monster's leg. But the giant steps back away from the blow and brings his iron hammer down on Hrothwulf, piledriving him into the snow with a red spray. So ends the life of Hrothwulf, son of Beogar, Axe of the Fafnir Clan, Red Stain on the Snow.
That's the shortest saga I've ever read. Bravo.

(Of course, if it were a true saga, it would have started following the frost giant around as the new main character. Sagas end when you run out of warrior characters, everyone important having wound up dead. They're amusing like that.)
 

Fenes

First Post
One addition: There's also the limited uncertainity. So, a fight may be fully uncertain for the players, but they might know that their characters won't die - even if the exact consequences of a lost fight are unknown and reach from captivity to the loss of countries.
 

Reynard

Legend
One addition: There's also the limited uncertainity. So, a fight may be fully uncertain for the players, but they might know that their characters won't die - even if the exact consequences of a lost fight are unknown and reach from captivity to the loss of countries.

I think group decisions like "PCs won't die unless the player approves" are simply ways of mitigating uncertainty on the part of the DM and/or players, strictly for the purpose of ensuring that random outcomes don't disrupt some overall goal or "story". While I don't like that style of play and tend to see "tory" as an outcome, rather than an intent, of D&D play, I understand that not evryone feels the same way. Ultimately, there isn't a lot of difference between a DM keeping the results of a critical hit against a PC and keeping the result of a random encounter roll -- or ignoring either.

As far as my personal preferences go, I won't say I *never* fudge, but I try not to. If it comes down to rolling dice -- expecially as DM calling for dice rolls or purposefully designing situations in which dice rolls are necessary -- then the results of those rolls whould be kept. You're never required to call for roll to have the PCs accomplish something; you've got narrative control over the siuation. If you are calling for a roll, it suggests there is a possibility of -- and therefore consequence to -- failure on the part of the PCs. If the DM is motivated to fudge the results or sonsequences of such a roll, he or she shouldn't have asked for the roll in the first place.
 

Orryn Emrys

Explorer
I think group decisions like "PCs won't die unless the player approves" are simply ways of mitigating uncertainty on the part of the DM and/or players, strictly for the purpose of ensuring that random outcomes don't disrupt some overall goal or "story". While I don't like that style of play and tend to see "tory" as an outcome, rather than an intent, of D&D play, I understand that not evryone feels the same way.
I rather interpreted Fenes' post to be referring specifically to encounters and scenarios in which the PCs' lives aren't on the line. I suppose it's fair to extrapolate "limited" uncertainty from such a prospect, as death is the final arbiter, but I do run a very story-driven campaign with notably fewer combat encounters, so there are a greater number of such scenarios.

Even so, with the stories hinging on PC survival, the possibility of character death is a very necessary part of the game. Without the "true tension" it provides, my players wouldn't find the events and challenges of the game nearly as rewarding.
 

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