Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

Kask · Apr 9, 2009

"What does this tell us about scarcity for PHB2? It tells us that 4E in general is selling poorly."

This is interesting. I have 3 each of BN & Borders in my area. All carried 3.x for the entire history of those versions. All carried the release of 4.0. NONE of them restocked 4.0 and don't carry it anymore. I asked the mgrs of the stores and they said it was because of lackluster sales compared to 3.x...

OchreJelly · Apr 9, 2009

S'mon said:
Dancey says in that thread he thinks that pen and paper RPGs are finished as a commercial proposition - ie the 'video game industry is unbeatable' - hence the death spiral.

I wonder if he felt that way too back in 2000 at the birth of 3E when he was involved. Back then everyone was talking about video games and CCGs signaling the death knell of table-top rpgs (not to mention TSR's death throes). Today there's even more penetration of video gaming as MMOs have come into their own, but evidence there shows that the gaming market as a whole is growing. If that market is bigger, wouldn't some of those gamers become table-top gamers?

That said, I partly agree with his comment. I have felt that table-top needed to evolve for the online age, and I thought DDI was going to take us in that direction, but I digress...

Charwoman Gene · Apr 9, 2009

So the Chief Marketing Officer for the #2 RPG Company, which is also an MMO company, sends up some FUD about his interpretation of recent events, which coincidentally, reflect feelings he's had for years, and validate the strategies his company implements.

Piratecat · Apr 9, 2009

It's probably obvious, but discuss his ideas without taking personal shots.

Dancy burned a lot of his industry credibility a few years back with the GAMA debacle. I'm also willing to consider that he has a horse in this race, and I'd have trouble believing that he's a purely neutral pundit. I find it an interesting analysis, but I'm not going to give his opinion more weight than it deserves.

frankthedm · Apr 9, 2009

GMforPowergamers said:
so is this guy always a glass half empty type, or only in regards to this?

Not only is the glass half empty, it probably has been poisoned.

C_M2008 · Apr 9, 2009

Charwoman Gene said:
So the Chief Marketing Officer for the #2 RPG Company, which is also an MMO company, sends up some FUD about his interpretation of recent events, which coincidentally, reflect feelings he's had for years, and validate the strategies his company implements.

My take exactly. Someone posting anti-WoTC sentiments that has everything to gain from doing so. Meaningless drivel.

4e seems to be doing pretty well from were I'm sitting. I won't bother posting my ancedotal evidence, since obviously that's not solid evidence just like what Mr. Dancey wrote isn't.

Rodrigo Istalindir · Apr 9, 2009

Couple bones to pick with his analysis.

First, I would be very, very surprised if retail booksellers *increased* the percentage of RPG sales they accounted for. That would fly in the trend of every other kind of book sale. Amazon, OTOH, likely accounts for far more of the RPG sales than they did 9 years ago. Using retail markers to base any analysis on seems error-prone to me.

Second, sales of secondary 'core' books (and god how it irks me that the term 'core' has been debased) are largely irrlevant. They've always been less than 'true' core, and the way WotC decided to break things out IMO just increases the chance that a single copy per group will be acquired. If you aren't going to be playing one of the PHB2 classes, there's zero reason to get the book. The ancillary crunch that applies to other classes isn't enough to justify having multiple copies.

And anyone with a DDI sub is less likely to buy the newer books. Which, really, is what I think the real agenda is. The books are here to sell DDI subs; the $10/month/player is far more important to the bottom line than the sales of the books, since the penetration of the non-core books is a small fraction of the player-base.

The farm has been bet on DDI. The question is, will the degree to which it cannablizes dead-tree sales outweigh the revenue?

xechnao · Apr 9, 2009

What is "evergreen"?

Piratecat said:
It's probably obvious, but discuss his ideas without taking personal shots.

Dancy burned a lot of his industry credibility a few years back with the GAMA debacle. I'm also willing to consider that he has a horse in this race, and I'd have trouble believing that he's a purely neutral pundit. I find it an interesting analysis, but I'm not going to give his opinion more weight than it deserves.

GAMA debacle?

And a comment regarding the analysis. I believe I read somewhere that chain stores can return product while LFGS can not. Is this correct? If so perhaps since chain stores make 25% more of the business this is the reason Wotc prints less now? Since it seems that it would have a higher risk of overstocking itself than in the past.

Jack99 · Apr 9, 2009

xechnao said:
GAMA debacle?

Yeah, I wanna hear this too.

frankthedm · Apr 9, 2009

xechnao said:
What is "evergreen"?

A Book that is not tied to a ruleset. I.C.E.'s [ame="http://www.amazon.com/Nightmares-Mine-Rolemaster-Standard-System/dp/1558063676/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1239296477&sr=8-1"]Nightmares of mine[/ame] is a fine example of such.

xechnao said:
GAMA debacle?

[ame=http://ogrecave.com/2004/07/30/board-breaking-at-gama-karate-not-involved/]OgreCave » Board breaking at GAMA, karate not involved[/ame]

Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

Kask

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OchreJelly

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Charwoman Gene

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Piratecat

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frankthedm

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C_M2008

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Rodrigo Istalindir

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xechnao

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Jack99

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frankthedm

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