jaerdaph
#UkraineStrong
Ironically, a lot of edition warrior gamers would benefit from reading this book...
Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral
Ironically, a lot of edition warrior gamers would benefit from reading this book...
Rodrigo Istalindir
Explorer
I don't think it says anything about that theory. We don't know what the print run was or what the threshold was for hitting the list.
Mournblade94
Adventurer
I think at this point Green Ronin and Paizo are at least as big as TSR was before the aquisition. If WOTC sunk (which it will not because of Magic), or if the D&D brand was cancelled, I think there is plenty of interest to keep Paizo and Green Ronin, Mongoose, and white wolf afloat.
WOTC alienated alot of people. I easily spend minimum of $200 a month on gaming product. I USED to spend that money on WOTC product. Unfortunately I did not really explore the 3pp enough to see how high quality they actually were.
Gaming would exist with or without D&D brand name.
Doug Sundseth
First Post
Most products have a demand spike at publication, then a steep fall off. After not very long at all, the demand for is quite low. Classic examples of this sort of product in RPGs are most adventures -- the people who want them will almost all buy them in the first couple of months. After that time, there is no point reprinting, as the publisher will not even make back the printing costs.
An evergreen product, OTOH, maintains significant demand for quite a long time (see, for example, the PHB for the D&D version of your choice). A product line with lots of evergreen products is usually quite profitable, as the fixed costs (writing, art, editing, overhead) will be covered in the first sales spike and the profit margin for sales after that point is much higher.
occam
Adventurer
Ironically, a lot of edition warrior gamers would benefit from reading this book...
Appreciating (and agreeing with) this comment is, I think, the first positive thing I've ever taken away from reading that book.
Gothmog
First Post
Yeah, I'd have to say between the GAMA fiasco and his possible vested interest in the failure of 4e, anything Ryan Dancey says is questionable at best. While his thoughts are an interesting read, they can't be taken as anything more than that.
As for anecdotal evidence for the state of 4e, my FLGS has sold over 100 PHB2s since its release, and gets another shipment of 8 in every week, which also sell out (they also still move about 5-10 PHB1s per week). My FLGS is also packed every Saturday night with people who participate in Delve Night, and the D&D gamedays for 4e are extremely busy- something that was never seen during the 3e era. The local B&N and Borders also carries at least 5 PHB2s every time I've been in there (as well as the full range of 4e books, including multiple PHBs, MMs, and DMGs), and from what the sales staff tell me there, 4e continutes to be a strong seller. We also know the initial print run for 4e was larger than for 3e, and 4e has sold through its first two printings faster than 3e did. This data, along with the fact the 4e PHB2 is sold out, AND it appears on several bestseller lists and at higher rankings than the 3e books when they were released seems like pretty solid evidence that 4e isn't going away anytime soon. So while some people seem to hope and pray for the demise of 4e, it really requires some convoluted logic and reinterpretation of data and events to come to the conclusion that 4e is dying.
4e being successful is good for everyone in the RPG business and our hobby- I really don't understand the hatred and conspiracy theories some people seem to keep pumping out and are obsessed with. We all win when the gaming industry is strong, and we all lose when its not. Play whatever floats your boat, but there is no need to fight amongst ourselves.
Old Gumphrey
First Post
He also works for White Wolf, which is basically D&D's biggest competitor for largest tabletop game franchise. Anything negative Dancey says about D&D can only benefit his company. He's certainly not losing anything by convincing people that OMG DND IS DYING LOL
jgsugden
Legend
I don't think I agree with these types of comments.
If D&D has a slow death wherein interest in the game falls off slowly, I think it will have a *negative* impact on *all* other table top RPGs. As D&D dies off, a majority of people would probably not be switching to other RPGs, but would instead be leaving the market. This would reduce the viability of brick and mortar game stores, reducing channels of exposure for other RPGs.
As such, (and I think Dancey will probably agree with this statement) D&D is still a very important contributor to his paycheck, and he wants it to thrive UNTIL such time as his products can be built up to rival D&D. In other words, he doesn't want D&D To decline - he wants his products to rise up to rival it.
As for whether D&D is in a death spiral - certain decisions made by WotC, as well as certain failures to produce promised electronic products, smack to me of a disconnect between development and management. These types of disconnects often occur in offices following large series of layoffs wherein the developmental staff is reduced disproportionately compared to management and sales staffing. (I've certainly seen it up close and personal.)
As for whether his doom and gloom predicitions are accurate: only time will tell. However, I'm comforted by the knowledge that even under the gloomiest of predicitions, if D&D died I'd still have nough materials to run great games for the rest of my life.
Well, for values of "privileged" which include "available on a public website". And for values of "secretly" which include "I told you I was reading it".
It's like accusing lurkers here at ENWorld of secretly reading our privileged forums.
That seems... unlikely. Maybe if you mean specifically during those few months when TSR was effectively out of business and teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and complete collapse.
