I just watched the Discovery Channel's Mermaid docuspiracy. So this is another TV/Real world discussion. Hopefully it'll be fun and I'll learn something.

The premise is that these NOAA scientists get called to work on a mass whale beaching in Washington state. These are the same scientists who caught the Navy doing dangerous Sonic Weapon tests, proved it, published it, and made them stop.

While on the scene, they find the Navy is already there, has one of the many bodies cordoned off while they do mysterious fiddling around. After the Navy leaves, the scientists go over and look, but don't find anything.

There's another mass beaching in South Africa, and the same scientists go there, and through some odd luck, get pointed to a dead great white shark that they open up and find parts of a mysterious critter that they later deduce is a Mermaid.

Note, the scientists don't realize it's humanoid until later stages of their research. They think they've got a new marine mammal like a whale or dolphin on their hands. it happens.

Later, the South Africa seizes the research, destroys it, and all that's left is the scientists and what's in their head. It also turns out that the 2 boys who found the first beaching had a camphone recording (which in those days was rare and less probable for the Navy to think to confiscate when they talked to the family). The video shows a Merfolk survivor reacting to the kid's prodding.

It's an interesting story. But is there a more practical way to tell if its real?

Is there a way to investigate odd happenings that secure the evidence and prevent cover-ups, etc from happening?

Is there a way for governments to act that don't make things look suspicious.

Let's say there really was NOT an mermaid on the beach that day. There's really no kind of business for the Navy to be on the beach that day, let alone to be secretive about in front of NOAA investigators who also have authority to be on the scene.

It's the same problem as when your kid refuses to tell you where he's been all day. Acting secretively induces distrust and suspicion, which causes the questioner to increase their scrutiny. Kids complain all the time about their parents invading their privacy and not trusting them, but in most cases, it's because kids are stupid and give evasive responses, rather than a simple, if fabricated outline of their day's activity that will satisfy the querant, without rousing further investigation.

Now I'm dubious of most conspiracies. I think humans are relatively lousy at keeping secrets, especially low paid ones like the kind that make up government agencies.

But I also find that humans hide stupid things, probably more out of contrariness or getting caught for embezzlement, than any great concerted effort to hide aliens, etc.

Are there any conspiracy theories that actually might have some weight, beyond just the kook factor?

For instance, my conspiracy theory friend says:
various US departments posted an ad on their sites (homeland security, social security, some others) for 750 million rounds of hollow point ammunition for some specific calibres of guns. That's enough bullets to double-tap every citizen of the United States. Also, apparently Hollow points are against Geneva Conventions, so the military can't use them. They've since blacked out the amounts, but not the ad on the website.

Chemtrails, he says, are just silver oxide, which attracts water. basically rain seeding and mostly harmless (except for what other side effects silver oxide might do). So apparently he's not a chemtrail-nut.

The Federal Reserve, I'm told from multiple sources is evil/corrupt. I was never quite clear on the details.

In Minnesota, the DNR publishes what it pays out to a shell company for some "mystery' service. In past years, it was some reasonable amount (sub-million dollars). Since a new sales tax that feeds to the DNR passed, that number has jumped up considerably higher in the millions). Obviously, increased funds should result in increased spending. But this "looks" like somebody's getting a big pay increase for potentially the same service.

Anything else I should know about the conspiracies of the world?