D&D 5E Given WotC plans with the RPG will 5e always be the #1 seller?

Tony Vargas said:

Well, it'd explain why they haven't just shut it down to 'force' people to migrate to 5e.

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Yes, it would. Of course, vastly smaller numbers would also justify not shutting it down. I'm not claiming it doesn't make money.

What makes you think the popularity of 4e waned?

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If you have to ask this question, then that reflects on your willingness to honestly look around.

People still play it - a lot of people, I'd guess, since there are groups with just one DDI subscriber, and not everyone who plays liked the on-line tools that much - new players have continued to be added to the hobby by it, for that matter.

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Well, yes, "a lot of people" play it. "A lot of people" play a lot of games.
The rest of your claims, at least to the extent they have a drop of market significance are basely wishful thinking.

It's only a matter of time, though, in the face of absolutely no support, before they at least start buying 5e stuff, as well, if not finally migrate.

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This is no more true no than it was when 4E came along. Or when 3E came along. People who didn't like 3E kept playing older editions without support. The option to keep playing what you like without support is reasonable. The option to find another supported game you prefer is reasonable. The presumption of migration without regard to personal preference? That is not reasonable.

BryonD said:

If you have to ask this question, then that reflects on your willingness to honestly look around.

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When I 'look around' I see 5 tables of 4e running at my FLGS. Local conditions vary. There's two other venues in my area, one of them's all Pathfinder and WH40k. The third is running fewer tables, but has more interest in 5e. People self-selecting, again.

This is no more true no than it was when 4E came along. Or when 3E came along. People who didn't like 3E kept playing older editions without support. The option to keep playing what you like without support is reasonable.

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It is, but it's always tempting to see if you can't adapt the latest thing to your old game, and, once you start looking at the latest game, you just might find it has some redeeming qualities.

And, while there are a lot of things that held true in all rev-rolls, there was one important difference in the form of the OGL. 3.5 players have had continuous ongoing support for the game the whole time. So there was really no pressure at all, on them to give a later game - 4e, or now, 5e, for that matter - a chance.

The presumption of migration without regard to personal preference? That is not reasonable.

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Not without regard, but there are other things at work. A game with nothing new coming out provokes less buzz and discussion, for instance, so the community gets quieter, which gives the impression that perhaps it's shrinking. No new material can eventually make an old game seem less interesting.

3.5 may never experience those factors, since the OGL allows it to be supported in perpetuity.

Rygar said:

Refer to my post linking to Ryan D's retrospective on 4th edition. How can WOTC have total autonomy over D&D if they required the approval of Hasbro's senior management for the project plan for 4th edition? It is not possible to be fully autonomous when you require approval. The definition of autonomous means you don't need approval, so clearly WOTC is not autonomous.

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That was then, this is six years later. The bid for 'core product' status failed, publication of 4e ended, things changed, now WotC is just one big, happy, CCG-cash-flow-rich unit. For now. Hasbro may get shaken up yet again, and D&D may be expected to stand on it's own at some future date - hopefully not to the tune of having to increase revenue by an order of magnitude or die - or CCGs could fall out of favor and drag all of WotC down - you never know what the future may bring...

BryonD said:

If you have to ask this question, then that reflects on your willingness to honestly look around.

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No, Byron, it doesn't. You know the term "representative sample" right? You are asserting something occurring on a very broad basis, and then saying that if one does not see that presented in their local, anecdotal observations is being dishonest.

That, sir, is rhetorically unsound, rather unkind to your fellow gamers. Kind of edition warry, too.

Stop blaming others for "not seeing" the evidence. Burden of proof sits on the one making the assertion - give real data, or admit it is a personal opinion.

After looking at what's out there already, I don't really see 5E being overwhelmingly #1 consistently. The D&D brand as a whole may well be, if they can actually get the multimedia stuff to finally take off (something which, quite frankly, I'll believe it when I see it, given that both WotC and TSR have tried it with every other edition, and it has yet to truly happen). The game itself, while solid, is nothing that particularly special or unique. Take away the name and there is very little left that would force people to pay attention to it and want to immediately convert to it, nor will it automatically bring in players of different play styles. I can see it easily competing with Pathfinder in a back and forth between #1 and #2, but Pathfinder is in no danger of fading away if 5E does well; each will have it's niche and will appeal to different folks.

In the end, the ultimate success of the system depends not on the system itself, but how well WotC can leverage the brand into other medias. If 5E is forced to remain the main flag bearer of the brand, it will do well enough to support the existing fanbase and might win back a portion of the fanbase that left for other pastures in the past, but it won't be the overwhelming tour de force that some people seem to think it will be. The main reason is that while comparatively few people go out of their way to avoid WotC anymore, the number of people who look at WotC and the D&D brand as the gold standard they must play has also shrunk, and the tabletop game was designed to be part of a larger ecosystem, not the centerpiece of the brand, so even with the name behind it, it's not going to be an automatic sell to the casual gamer unless the other pieces also really take off as WotC wants them to.

sunshadow21 said:

After looking at what's out there already, I don't really see 5E being overwhelmingly #1 consistently. ... Take away the name and there is very little left that would force people to pay attention to it and want to immediately convert to it, nor will it automatically bring in players of different play styles.

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In the absence of the kind of business disasters that sunk 2e and 4e, and in the absence of unrelenting nerdrage, all D&D /needs/ is the name. Take away the name and you have another D&D rip-off. Keep the name and you have the virtually-guaranteed #1 RPG. Because, outside our miniscule hobby, it's the only RPG anyone's ever heard of, so it's where the new folks all start.

By definition, virtually everyone who plays RPGs played D&D first - and didn't hate it enough to run screaming into the night and never game again. (Disclaimer: yes, in the second half of the 90s, a lot of folks came to the hobby via LARPs, instead, I'll grant the existence of that cohort, but they're not a huge segment of the hobby.)

How can a game /not/ be #1 when it's the gatekeeper to the industry?

The only way D&D has managed to fall out of the top spot in the past is by simply not putting out product. At the end of the 90s, TSR outright failed. In 2011, after the flurry of Essentials books, WotC dropped the pace of publication to a trickle, and Pathfinder - also, in essence, trading on the D&D name via the untrademarkable "3.5" splashed on it's ads - edged ahead. In 2012, WotC stopped putting out any new books for post-Essentials D&D, and a non-D&D game or two finally pulled ahead of it.

Unless WotC willfully stops printing books at some point, 5e would have a tough time sitting anywhere but the #1 spot.

Tony Vargas said:

In the absence of the kind of business disasters that sunk 2e and 4e, and in the absence of unrelenting nerdrage, all D&D /needs/ is the name. Take away the name and you have another D&D rip-off. Keep the name and you have the virtually-guaranteed #1 RPG. Because, outside our miniscule hobby, it's the only RPG anyone's ever heard of, so it's where the new folks all start.

By definition, virtually everyone who plays RPGs played D&D first - and didn't hate enough to run screaming into the night and never game again. (Disclaimer: yes, in the second half of the 90s, a lot of folks came to the hobby via LARPs, instead, I'll grant the existence of that cohort.)

How can a game /not/ be #1 when it's the gatekeeper to the industry?

The only way D&D has managed to fall out of the top spot in the past is by simply not putting out product. At the end of the 90s, TSR outright failed. In 2011, after the flurry of Essentials books, WotC dropped the pace of publication to a trickle, and Pathfinder - also, in essence, trading on the D&D name via the untrademarkable "3.5" splashed on it's ads - edged ahead. In 2012, WotC stopped putting out any new books for post-Essentials D&D, and a non-D&D game or two finally pulled ahead of it.

Unless WotC willfully stops printing books at some point, 5e would have a tough time sitting anywhere but the #1 spot.

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I disagree.

You are overvaluing D&D while trying to undervalue Pathfinder. I don't think you fully grasp how well liked Pathfinder and Paizo are. Wotc really messed up with 4th edition and it's going to takeva lot to get those players who left, back.

Tony Vargas said:

In the absence of the kind of business disasters that sunk 2e and 4e, and in the absence of unrelenting nerdrage, all D&D /needs/ is the name. Take away the name and you have another D&D rip-off. Keep the name and you have the virtually-guaranteed #1 RPG. Because, outside our miniscule hobby, it's the only RPG anyone's ever heard of, so it's where the new folks all start.

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I disagree. The name used to be enough to get automatic sales within the community itself, but not anymore, meaning that more people already in the hobby are willing to play something else, and most new players don't just appear, they are recruited by existing players (or in the times that good computer games were made, through those, but those have been few and far between lately). If existing players don't see a reason to switch to 5E, they are going to keep playing what they are already playing and recruiting people into those systems, not D&D. The only way that 5E will be guaranteed a #1 spot is if 1)they get the movies, video games, boardgames, etc. aspect off the ground this time and provide another legitimate way into the system and hobby and 2)they successfully translate those other successes into getting people to buy and play 5E. The first has proven to be very difficult in the past, and hasn't gotten any easier; the second is just as tricky, and has proven to be equally sporadic in it's success rate. That leaves people actually playing the game as the most common method of expanding the hobby, and there is no reason right now for existing players to see the D&D brand as a golden standard that all must play. It's popular, to be certain, but far from a clear #1, and only an extraordinary system would cause existing players to see it differently. 5E, for all that it is a solid and good system, is not extraordinary or amazingly unique enough to do that. In the end, that means that the chances of 5E, or even the brand as a whole, being an overwhelming force that will sweep away all competition and regain it's place at the top as the clear king remains a nebulous dream that I doubt WotC even really cares about at this point as long it does well enough to meet their own internal goals. Just because it's the name most non-players are familiar with doesn't mean that it's going to be enough by itself to sell books to new players. New players tend to look for existing groups, and if existing groups tend to play other systems, so will the new players, because that is what is actually being played.

The Black Ranger said:

I disagree.

You are overvaluing D&D while trying to undervalue Pathfinder.

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I'm asserting that they're virtually the same game. Pathfinder is a continuation of 3.5 - it trades off the D&D tradition, and, by association, even the name. It's D&D by default when WotC chooses not to put out enough actual D&D.

I don't think you fully grasp how well liked Pathfinder and Paizo are. Wotc really messed up with 4th edition and it's going to takeva lot to get those players who left, back.

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I fully grasp that Pathfinder sold less than 4e and even Essentials, initially, and pulled ahead only when the release schedule in the wake of Essentials slowed to a trickle. I get that Pathfinder has enjoyed a solid #1 status for the couple of years that D&D has /not been published at all/. I get that there's a core of Piazo fans who are only Paizo fans because they conceived an abiding hatred for WotC, and they may /)come back. But they didn't topple D&D from the #1 spot. WotC did that by not offering enough (or, for two years /any/) product).

If 5e doesn't shoot immediately to #1, it will because WotC screwed up in some colossal way. They've shown no sign of doing so. The build-up to the new release has been comparatively polite and workmanlike, this time. The content of the game is derivative of past editions, and thus comfortably familiar to existing fans. The only thing that might trip them up is how they approach the OGL.

Tony Vargas said:

If 5e doesn't shoot immediately to #1, it will because WotC screwed up in some colossal way. They've shown no sign of doing so. The build-up to the new release has been comparatively polite and workmanlike, this time.

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I fully expect them to shoot up to #1 initially, and for a short time after release, but they won't automatically stay there just because they are suddenly publishing books again. I expect that the long term pattern will be them going back and forth with Paizo between #1 and #2 as each goes through a cycle of comparatively mundane books followed by one or two really big products that draw a lot of attention. I don't reject that they will be successful; I just don't think they are going to suddenly become the overwhelming favorite again. The hobby has changed, and it's going to be a lot harder for any single system to reign supreme.