AbdulAlhazred
Legend
So how do I build my encounter? What monster level? How many encounters between each Short Rest? Well as we saw (if we want to mimic 5th Edition adventuring day) we should have maybe 2 to 3 encounters before a short rest. We also saw that we have also increased the expected HP at the end of those encounters to be reduced from 36% (current 4th Edition) level to 25%, i.e. if we run a single encounter the damage output should be (1-0.25)/ (1-0.36)=1.168 or roughly 17% higher. In 4th Edition this would correspond roughly to an Encounter Level of 1 level higher than the character level (Encounter L+1).
However, if you were running 2 encounters before the short rest, it would be 1.168/2=0.584 or roughly 58% of a normal 4th Edition encounter, i.e. an encounter level 3 levels lower than the character party (Encounter L-3). If you were running an adventuring party of 5 players you would have to reduce the number of equal level monsters from 5 to 3 monsters. If we are running a 5 round battle we have now reduced it to 3 rounds.
If we run 3 encounters before a short rest it would be 1.168/3 or 39% or a 4th Edition encounter, i.e. an encounter level 5 levels lower than the character party (Encounter L-5). If you were running an adventuring party of 5 players you would have to reduce the number of equal level monsters from 5 to 2 monsters. Potentially the two ogres we talked about previously. If we are running a 5 round battle we have now reduced it to 2 rounds - the same design goal which 5th Edition had.
However as a DM you might want to pit the party against lower level monsters, rather than just reduced numbers of ogres. Anybody who has played 4th Edition knows that a threat level 5 levels below the party level is no threat, just due to the fact that the monsters would hardly be able to hit the adventuring party. So for this to work - we need bounded accuracy, and we need to make sure that the 4th Edition XP reward for monster level, really mimics the damage output when you apply bounded accuracy to the monsters to hit chance.
I don't think you need bounded accuracy, you simply need to factor into your monster's damage output that they will hit less often, get hit more often, and die faster than monsters in a standard 4e encounter. With that in mind I think you will find that level-1 is probably going to work, or maybe level-2.
However, going back to what [MENTION=42582]pemerton[/MENTION] said. IN EFFECT your '3 encounters' is ONE 4e encounter (literally by RAW as an encounter ends when a short rest happens). So the best way to handle this is to simply design a set of encounters using the 4e encounter design rules! You will then have to jack up its difficulty SOME because one encounter with the bad guys entering piecemeal is obviously not as threatening as a baseline encounter. Still, things will be in the ballpark. Again, this is especially true if your bad guys are lurkers, traps, etc that are likely to get in a blow or two before being annihilated.
Anyway, I don't think your math is off. I think you're just sort of basically round-about arriving at the solution others have come to in the past by trial-and-error. You just did it by math, which is cool!