D&D 5E [ToA] Hex-crawling and Long Rests

After thinking about it for a while, I think I have to abandon the "random hex is safe" approach.

It would only generate questions like "why aren't sites like Camp Vengeance set-up at safe hexes?" (I don't like the idea that one of the five factions, that a PC might well be a member of, is portrayed as bumbling fools with zero survival skills)

On the other hand, the idea that sites are the safe hexes doesn't work either - after all, Camp Vengeance is definitely not one of the safe hexes...

In the end, maybe I will go with every hex except river hexes are unsafe. This may sound incredibly harsh, but it incentivizes river exploration, and to be fair, most hexes are four hexes away from the nearest river.

Most of the interesting hexes anyway. Sure, reaching Omu, or mapping the Valley of Dread becomes a challenge, but not an insurmountable one for "high" level creatures. Assuming the random encounters stay tier I & II appropriate, I'm thinking any tier III character can handle pretty much unlimited numbers of them, opening up the map to the party.

While providing a good reason why Chult has stayed unexplored for so long

(I'm not one of those asking why Elminster & Co hasn't fixed every problem on Toril, but I do have an issue with a continent of white unexplored hexes if all the obstacles are tier I only.

In other words, if you can't take long rests in the jungle, that would provide a satisfactory explanation why the continent has stayed unexplored all this time - only high level characters could do it, but why would they? Except now the curse forces the issue!)

CapnZapp said:

go with every hex except river hexes are unsafe

Click to expand...

Let me add that coastal "grassland" hexes (savannah is perhaps a better word?) would also be safe. (At least I think that's what the green is meant to signify. Are we sure there are no legend to the map?!) I see grassland mainly around the various bays and inlets. Most significantly, it makes the area around Port Nyanzaru and Fort Beluarian safe - also Port Castigliar and Jahaka Anchorage etc.

Also, swamp hexes are unsafe even with a river. This doesn't make much of a difference, as far as I can see, except when navigating the Aldani Basin.

Okay, so the encounter frequency has been characterized as "0-3" so far.

But the reality is that you make three d20 rolls a day, where 16-20 indicates an encounter.

So the probabilities are:

Zero encounters: 42%
One or more encounters: 58%

Exactly one encounter: 42%
Exactly two encounters: 14%
Exactly three encounters: 1.5%

Average number of encounters is 0.75. That is, over ten hexes you will have seven and a half encounter on average.

This is significantly less than what a simple range (such as "0-3" would led you to believe). The number of times you will have, say, seven encounters (or more) in, say, five hexes' time (to account for a modicum of being-lost-ness) is unlikely to say the least, only 6%.

My conversation above was pretty much predicated on that number being significantly higher. Say 40% of all five-hex treks result in 7+ encounters. What number do we need to change on our d20 rolls to achieve this?

It turns out 40% is the answer! In other words, if we change the encounter roll from 16-20 (25%) to 13-20 (40%) we get the following probabilities:

Zero encounters: 22%
One or more encounters: 78%

Exactly one encounter: 43% (almost exactly the same)
Exactly two encounters: 29%
Exactly three encounters: 6%

Average number of encounters is now 1.2

Over five hexes you will have 7+ encounters with a... 39% probability.

Zapp


PS. Thanks to AnyDice for numbers!

PS. Remember my party is 5th level before y'all throw a hissy fit, now

CapnZapp said:

Let me add that coastal "grassland" hexes (savannah is perhaps a better word?) would also be safe. (At least I think that's what the green is meant to signify. Are we sure there are no legend to the map?!) I see grassland mainly around the various bays and inlets. Most significantly, it makes the area around Port Nyanzaru and Fort Beluarian safe - also Port Castigliar and Jahaka Anchorage etc.

Also, swamp hexes are unsafe even with a river. This doesn't make much of a difference, as far as I can see, except when navigating the Aldani Basin.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure that's true? That's regular jungle populated by creatures such as dinosaurs and other living nasties. The other areas are populated by undead or are treacherous terrain. Jahaka Anchorage, for example, has extensive fortifications to keep stuff out.

There are no "safe areas" in Chult

robus said:

I'm not sure that's true? That's regular jungle populated by creatures such as dinosaurs and other living nasties. The other areas are populated by undead or are treacherous terrain. Jahaka Anchorage, for example, has extensive fortifications to keep stuff out.

There are no "safe areas" in Chult

Click to expand...

Could it be you haven't followed the thread, Robus?

It seems like you're talking about safe and unsafe areas in general, whereas I am continuing my train of thought regarding where you get the benefits of a long rest (and where you don't).

Currently I'm thinking about making pretty much all of the jungle, swamp and badland hexes "unsafe" per this specific definition.

Assuming you don't get lost, this means 5 hexes on average before you exceed the 6-8 encounter guideline of the DMG.

By itself, this might not deter tier II heroes, but then consider you need to get back too... ☺

Sent from my C6603 using EN World mobile app

CapnZapp said:

Could it be you haven't followed the thread, Robus?

It seems like you're talking about safe and unsafe areas in general, whereas I am continuing my train of thought regarding where you get the benefits of a long rest (and where you don't).

Click to expand...

Oops