Jester David
Hero
The problem with that comparison is that old TSR’s figures also included sales of the multiple other RPGs *and* their many board games. I’ve never seen figures for just D&D.I just think people like to get carried away. If you adjust the old TSR figures for inlfation at its height D&D was twice the size of the current RPG market at its peak and for several years was around the same size (81-83 or so).
Again, TSR =/= D&D.Even with a 30% drop in 84 which wrecked them (300 odd staff does that) its still bigger than the entire modern RPG market.
Also, keep in mind we are talking about when TSR has 1e *and* Basic released at the same time. When it had two games both selling a million copies. So, yes, it could be bigger than the RPG market is right now but D&D 5e could still have sold more than 1e or Basic. It just means not both combined....
(And TSR had notoriously bad bookkeeping. I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers they reported were significantly off.)
How much longer do you think it will take.Thats why I am sceptical and thats before they starting spamming out stuff to pay the bills. Its plausible D&D has sold a million or 1.5 million or whatever but its not guaranteed.
Again, D&D has been steadily selling more and more. It’s back on the Top 10 of all books again, where it has been living the last six months. With continued sales like that, do you think it will be six months? A year?
Sure. You could assume that.Mistwell said that take away he big spikes for sales and there is probably a big drop off between the books higher up the ilists, I would assume its like movies Xanaathars was bonkers for a month or so and Mearls said it was the fastest selling D&D book *beating the PHB IDK?) but that lasted a month or so.
Or you could check and find data to back up your claims.
Here’s Xanathar’s sales:

It declined, but no sudden drop.
>500k in August 2016.I highly doubt they are selling 3k books every day, hell We have 3 of the,m probably get a 4th an at $20 a pop on Amazon I would have more.
Even a few hundred sales a day with a nice big spike at the front end of an edition spread over a long enough time will get there. 100 a day is 36k a year roughly so 500 a day is 150k, 1000 a day is 365k average (more than the lifetime sales of 3.5). If they were selling that many I think the RPG market would be bigger.
365k per year for their last 18 months would be over 540k.
That’s over 1 million. By YOUR numbers.
The general thought is sales will follow the Pareto principle (aka the 80/20 rule) where 80% of sales come from 20% of the audience.I guess to hit 9 million players they assumed an attach rate or 5-1 or whatever per PHB per group. Hell our group has a PHB each + 1 extra due to cheap Amazon prices and only 1 of us (me) is a hardcore D&D collector. Since I doubt they have sold 9 million PHB they have assumed some amount of people play D&D per PHB or whatever but if our group is not that exceptional their numbers are going to be very very wrong.
20% of 9 million is 1.8 million.